Chester day 3 17:05 - interesting race

[JollyGreen]

Just a quick note about this race.

I have been waiting for Embsay Crag to run again at Chester but I wanted it to run over 1m2f and today it runs over 1m4f. The extra 2f just seems to be beyond him so I am surprised that connections have decided to target this race. He is 0-3 over 1m4f and managed just a 2nd place at 1m2.5f so you have to think he will not be winning today. Now some horses do stay slightly further as they get older but his handicap mark has gone up for finishing 2nd in his last two starts so this is starting to put me off.

Waiting for horses is like waiting for a bus, you can't see one then two come along at once. The other horse I have on my list is Jedi who is a short priced favourite in this race. I had been keeping an eye on him because he showed potential but clearly had issues, perhaps with small injuries. Sir Michael Stoute has kept him training which means he also must think something of this horse. I watched his run at Lingfield on Grand National Day and let's say he wasn't given a hard time. Unfortunately while he looks a decent horse he is drawn out in the car park so he will have it all to do. His price is 3.00 as I type which is lunacy - he could win by half the track and he wouldn't carry a penny of my money. He may actually hit a low of around 2.90 and at that point I would be clicking the lay button as he could even hit 3.30-3.40 pre race. I would also think he just has to trade bigger in running because his jockey will be desperate to find a decent position. He will have a real dilemma because if he uses early speed to get across then he will use valuable energy and I would suggest that 1m4f is at the top end of this horses range.

That means there are real doubts about the front two in the market and you are left with just a 51% book with those removed from calculations. I am not suggesting complete lays but I can see the winner coming from somewhere else in the field. All we need is a true run race!

[CaerMyrddin]

I never commented on your posts, but I read them carefully and find them wonderful.

I clearly have no understanding on value in horse racing and this kind of analisys has been really formative.

Thank you for all!

[ba1000]

Thanks JollyGreen - you seemed to have the power to move markets - 3.85 now for Jedi I assume you would still LAY at this price.

[JollyGreen]

I laid it at 3.00 so I will now go with the title of this song

Steve Miller Band

I will happily accept that one!

BTW - Is this guy's Brother in the Labour Party...Ed Millaband

[ba1000]

JollyGreen you got style! your the Daddy too!

And my luck was in too - I layed Embsay Craig ALL IN! Got out at £5.51 chicken out should have stayed for £8.

I was surpised by that I usually pick the loser! (eg I thought the torys would get in again - got stung by that)

Thank you very much

[JollyGreen]

Well I think Ryan Moore should go out and buy some tickets for the Euro Millions Lottery. It was like the rest wanted him to win and they all moved aside to let him through. He did touch bigger in running but I would not be rushing to back him again at this distance.

I am just amazed at the punters who piled on Embsay Crag who was never going to get this trip and once again managed a place. That's his best result at this trip and I think it confirms this was not a race contested by true 1m4f horses and I think Jedi will struggle if he meets 1m4f specialists. It will certainly be interesting to see where he runs next.