Horse racing turnover YoY

[Bet Angel]

Sat here this evening I got the distinct feeling that I couldn't get anything matched (again). So after racing I thought I would do some quick analysis. Year on year the same meeting and races look pretty starkly different.

Last year the six races produced £2.8m in turnover, this year it was £1.65m down 43% on the year. Now there are going to be mitigating factors, but few that account for such a drop. Just thought I would share my findings.

I'll expand them when I get some more time.

[rhysmr2]

Interesting stuff, 43% is a hell of a drop! I traded some of the later meetings, very slow stuff but again far more profitable to me then the earlier meetings

Maybe a silly question but was the aintree meetings your comparing exactly the same time/day? it's just being a friday night, maybe everyone went the pub

[Iron]

The fact that the races took place during some of the most important political developments in our lifetimes may also have something to do with it...

Jeff

Interesting stuff, 43% is a hell of a drop! I traded some of the later meetings, very slow stuff but again far more profitable to me then the earlier meetings

Maybe a silly question but was the aintree meetings your comparing exactly the same time/day? it's just being a friday night, maybe everyone went the pub

[Bet Angel]

I had a look at the others meetings data this morning: -

Aintree -43%
Chester -21%
Hamilton -46%
Lingfield -10%
Nottingham -56%
Ripon -8%

Obviously you could adjust for field size, race construction and so on. But I don't think you need to go that far with these figures. Basically we have matched like for like and would expect pluses and minuses to even out, but there isn't a need to qualify further given the data.

[Iron]

Wow!

The drop in Lingfield and Ripon in particular is astonishing!

What do you guys think might be causing this decline?

Jeff

I had a look at the others meetings data this morning: -

Aintree -43%
Chester -21%
Hamilton -46%
Lingfield -10%
Nottingham -56%
Ripon -8%

Obviously you could adjust for field size, race construction and so on. But I don't think you need to go that far with these figures. Basically we have matched like for like and would expect pluses and minuses to even out, but there isn't a need to qualify further given the data.

[Bet Angel]

I think this fall in like for like volume is becoming a trend. Overall volume yesterday was down 13-20% depending on how you measure it.

[Iron]

That's got to be hurting Betfair!

I suppose the great unknown is 'is this drop caused by the Premium Charge?'

If we assume that the vast majority of money on Betfair is from traders, and if we also assume that they don't like being taxed at 20%, then the answer has to be 'quite possibly!'

Jeff

I think this fall in like for like volume is becoming a trend. Overall volume yesterday was down 13-20% depending on how you measure it.

[andyfuller]

It is falling on horse racing but perhaps picking up else where such as the arcade which is more profitable than the exchange. If you watch TV how many ads have you seen for the Arcade or Football markets v Horse Racing?

I can't remember the last time I saw a Horse Racing one.

[Mug]

Betfair forever mail me offers for the arcade but I don't think I've had one for sports markets.

[Iron]

Hi Andy

Quite possibly, but you still have to wonder why it's falling on horse racing in particular.

I suppose it could just be the fact that the recession is making people more reluctant to risk their money on bets, or that the bookmakers are regaining some of their lost ground from Betfair. It would probably be wishful thinking to suppose that Betdaq are making a march Betfair's market dominance, however!

BTW, I don't understand the attraction of the Arcade. Why anyone would play a game like roulette where the odds are stacked against you is beyond me! They might as well just send Betfair a massive cheque and be done with it!

Jeff

It is falling on horse racing but perhaps picking up else where such as the arcade which is more profitable than the exchange. If you watch TV how many ads have you seen for the Arcade or Football markets v Horse Racing?

I can't remember the last time I saw a Horse Racing one.

[bugrit]

Ladbrokes have today said thier turnover is down 10% so far this year. Seems people are cutting back on their betting in general.

[Bet Angel]

I've changed the header to be more reflective of the content.

It seems there is a general decline in turnover. I am finding it difficult to find a day that is up year on year. This afternoon was lower than the last year by 20%.

[LeTiss]

I've changed the header to be more reflective of the content.

It seems there is a general decline in turnover. I am finding it difficult to find a day that is up year on year. This afternoon was lower than the last year by 20%.

I realise this thread is about Horse Racing, but do your figures show the same decline on Sport?

Matched amounts on sporting events appear to be holding up - I noticed nearly £2Million on Eurosport's WTA match this morning!

It would be interesting to see if punters or/and traders are moving money away from Horses & onto other sports, or have just stopped betting

[andyfuller]

Peter is there any chance of using your stats to show where the decline is happening i.e is it across the markets or on the fav, 2nd fav, 3rd fav.

To me it seems that away from the fav it is even worse than the overall trend.

Today and yesterday have been particularly poor imo they have felt more like mid January days then mid May.

[Zenyatta]

Could it be that everyone has wised up and realized that Adam and Peter are too good?