York 2:40 Musidora Stakes

[JollyGreen]

I m concentrating on the better races at York today and this is the first Group race on the card.

Caberet is potentially a very smart horse and I am slightly surprised it is not favourite. On juvenile form this is the filly to beat but as I have mentioned before we need to know if they have trained on and will they make a decent 3 year old? Well her pedigree screams potential and good 3 year old so that isn't a problem. That in turn means she should have trained on so the remaining question is if she will be fully wound up for this race? Her juvenile form is the best on offer by some margin, especially the run at Leopardstown. The only other runner with anything close is Bikini Babe from Mark Johnston's stable. This is a local track for him and he excels in middle/long distance races.

The favourite Aviate is highly regarded by connections and holds some decent entries. The one of note is the Group 1 Oaks where she is currently a 20/1 shot. However, I feel she is priced more on what she is likely to achieve and also on the connections - would she be so short if she wasn't trained by such a high profile trainer and owned by such a high profile owner? I think not!

I don't think Cracking Lass or Pink Symphony could win if they started now as they seem to have too much to find. However, these are fillies and they can surprise you - one improves, the other has an off day and you get a weird result. With that in mind, do not just lay the outsiders for the sake of it!

From a trading point of view this market will probably rest on the fitness of Cabaret. If she is fit and raring to go in this race then she should win. If she's not 100% and connections are aiming her at bigger and better prizes then she won't. I know that is hardly rocket science but read on. It will not take long for the paddock judges to know if she is primed for this race. In fact, the rumours and information flying around may be enough to let us know. If there is any doubt at all in a race of this quality then the price will drift. If she is spot on then money will come for her and she will shorten and Aviate will drift so it could be an interesting market.

[Stewart]

I don't think Cracking Lass or Pink Symphony could win if they started now as they seem to have too much to find.

Not sure about this one Jolly Green, assuming that all 8 remain (and that is a big if cause always one seems to get pulled when there is 8!) then I think Pink Symphony is a cracking E/W bet. Certainly with a good draw and a prominent running style I expect that she will trade alot shorter in running - currently around 14/1 on Betfair (also 14/1 Lads).

Stewart

[JollyGreen]

Well the problem I have is taking so much on trust about Pink Symphony. She is a smart filly but is she up to this grade and more importantly what do we have to go on that suggest she is worth a chance? I admit my statement about not winning if they started now seemed harsh but is was meant tongue in cheek

Over 10f here in a field of just 8 runners I am not sure the draw will have a huge impact. I would also worry that Bikini Babe will contest the lead and not let Pink Symphony have it all her own way. The other problem you tend to have in these races is that with two short priced horses in Aviate and Cabaret they tend to ignore the front runners (unless they are short priced and fancied) so the price doesn't always shrink as we'd like. If one of the big two comes under pressure then it will be a different story.

I hope Pink Symphony runs well for you and it offers the trade you want

[JollyGreen]

Well as I suspected the O'Brien horse was in need of the race. I watched her on TV and she doesn't look too big and her coat wasn't gleaming. I know it's TV but that was not a horse that was fit and raring to go. Aiden O'Brien does leave them with a bit of work to do and I really believe that to be the case in this race.

This stable aren't trying to catch the toddlers, they want to bag the whoppers so don't write off Cabaret just yet.

This was not a great field but Aviate ran a good race despite having a bit of steering to do in the home straight. It is not easy to have a race where you keep breaking your momentum so that shows she is smart. The disappointing factor is the close proximity of Eleanora Duse who couldn't win a handicap off a mark of 78

I was surprised to see Pink Symphony settled towards the back especially when she seems to enjoy it more when she's allowed to bowl along in front.

It wasn't a great race with Cabaret and Aviate the two to take out of it IMHO

[mikesalter]

After reading your post though I did catch Carbary coming in a few times so made a small 17p profit on it so thanks for that! (17p is good when you are a novice tiddler like me)

[JollyGreen]

After reading your post though I did catch Carbary coming in a few times so made a small 17p profit on it so thanks for that! (17p is good when you are a novice tiddler like me)

No problem Mike...acorns, oaks and all that