I nearly puked!!!!!!!!!

The sport of kings.
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JollyGreen
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As most of you know, I have a database of horses that I update daily. Over the past few days I have been kicking myself because there have been a couple of winners in the evening meetings but I have not bothered with them. It's just something you have to deal with because you cannot sit in front of the PC and TV 24/7.

That's all well and good but today I nearly puked when one of my horses won at York and I didn't have a bean on him. I made money in the race because I caught a drift on Showcasing. I had Prime Defender on my list but when I weighed up the form and the opposition I felt he was an each way chance at best. I would normally have a medium amount on at the bigger Betfair prices and then look to trade out in running. Because I had made a profit I decided that I shouldn't be greedy and accept what I had. You can imagine how I felt when he won at 20/1 :?

On a positive note, I managed to set a new record for myself today in that I had two horses laid at 1.03 and they didn't win!!
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mikesalter
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I appreciate a lay at 1.03 is a good move if it doesn't win but are you putting this on whilst watching the race? Does this represent prior knowledge because you know the horse is one to fade?
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JollyGreen
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I just layed the field at that price because I realised horses were closing and the finishes were close. Please don't think it was any prior knowledge, I was just determined to beat my best of 1.04 and I was lucky enough to manage it today :D

I was tempted to try 1.01 and I would've been successful too! I have never managed it before and I tend to do this when I have made a profit on the race and so I am not going to lose much but will hit the jackpot if it comes off...so to speak!
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mikesalter
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Interesting thinking, if its a really close finish then I can see people will hit the bunch low.I wonder what the maths is of doing that regularly, say 3 or 4 horses at the front of a race when they are level at a furlong to go.
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andyfuller
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JollyGreen wrote:I tend to do this when I have made a profit on the race and so I am not going to lose much but will hit the jackpot if it comes off
I have never understood why people only do things if they have a profit already on the race. I treat any profit on a race just the same as any other money I have. It isn't free money and I don't see why you should be willing to risk it any more than you would any other money
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JollyGreen
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andyfuller wrote:
JollyGreen wrote:I tend to do this when I have made a profit on the race and so I am not going to lose much but will hit the jackpot if it comes off
I have never understood why people only do things if they have a profit already on the race. I treat any profit on a race just the same as any other money I have. It isn't free money and I don't see why you should be willing to risk it any more than you would any other money
Because we live in a democracy and I can
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andyfuller
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JollyGreen wrote:Because we live in a democracy and I can
Fair enough, but from a disciplined trading view point it makes no sense to me.
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JollyGreen
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I'm not talking about a fortune here, I'm laying £100 at 1.03 so I can live with a £3 loss. I'm also not talking about doing it on every race.

I recorded the times of the races and it was apparent that "closers" were the order of the day at York so I thought what the heck :mrgreen:

Strangely enough they are running at Perth and I had Solis on my list. I don't have a penny on him and I am not risking any of my trading profits. He is still a maiden of 20 odd attempts so there is no value in his price!
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CaerMyrddin
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I have to go with you on this one, I don't play with money I already won at a certain market, I don't consider it free money, I look at it as money in my pocket.

Nevertheless, laying the field can be considered as trading, right? ;)
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JollyGreen
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CaerMyrddin wrote:I have to go with you on this one, I don't play with money I already won at a certain market, I don't consider it free money, I look at it as money in my pocket.

Nevertheless, laying the field can be considered as trading, right? ;)
It depends on your race reading skills and the type of the race. You cannot do it blind and hope to win money but you can do it if you know what to look for. That race at Bath was the perfect race because Kojak cannot be hit with the whip or pushed too hard so he is always going to be vulnerable to a finishing horse.

SiS pictures also help ;)
Last edited by JollyGreen on Wed May 12, 2010 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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andyfuller
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Do you find that the SiS pictures pay for themselves and more?
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JollyGreen
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Only on At the Adverts races!
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Bet Angel
Bet Angel
Bet Angel
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andyfuller wrote:I have never understood why people only do things if they have a profit already on the race. I treat any profit on a race just the same as any other money I have. It isn't free money and I don't see why you should be willing to risk it any more than you would any other money
I must put my hand up and say that I do this. If I have a profit I can afford to spend some to be active on alternative strategies. I don't spend the whole profit but often use a little to exploit general market inefficiencies.
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JollyGreen
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Bet Angel wrote: I must put my hand up and say that I do this. If I have a profit I can afford to spend some to be active on alternative strategies. I don't spend the whole profit but often use a little to exploit general market inefficiencies.
I was going to put that in one of my replies but I guessed you would read it :D

I don't go mad but I find it adds a bit of variety to the day. As I said, you cannot keep doing it and need to select the correct "type" of race and know what to look for. Heck I've spent over 40 years watching racing so if I can't spot them now then I guess I never will! :lol:
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Iron
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Hi JollyGreen

On the topic of in-play trading, one thing I've noticed is that, if you've got a head-to-head between a top jockey and an obscure jockey, more often than not the top jockey will win. Presumably, this is because he's judged the speed better and made sure the horse has enough juice left in the engine to take the race.

If you have an unknown jockey whose horse is at (say) 1.4 and he's against AP McCoy, whose horse is at 2.5, would you normally lay the unknown jockey's horse, or is the edge not strong enough?

Thanks

Jeff
JollyGreen wrote:I just layed the field at that price because I realised horses were closing and the finishes were close. Please don't think it was any prior knowledge, I was just determined to beat my best of 1.04 and I was lucky enough to manage it today :D

I was tempted to try 1.01 and I would've been successful too! I have never managed it before and I tend to do this when I have made a profit on the race and so I am not going to lose much but will hit the jackpot if it comes off...so to speak!
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