If a horse has been steaming or drifting for a while, would you place a trade?
I'm in two minds about this myself. On the one hand, if a market is in full swing, it's unlikely to turn on a penny. Surely it's more likely to slow down first, giving me a chance to exit for, at worst, a fairly small loss.
But on the other hand, I don't want to join the market when the trend is about to come to an end.
What do you guys think?
Jeff
Momentum
Here is my view. If the price has volume and has been trending for ages, the chance of a retracement is much reduced. If the move has been sudden and strong and if the volume dies and the weight of money shifts then I think you will almost certainly get a rebound.
I would prefer to be on the contrary side of the market, simply because that seems to work best. When people exit their positions to either take a profit or escape the loss a bounce is much stronger if you're going against the trend. But if you do this you need to be aware when your setup fails, otherwise you could lose five or six ticks.
I would prefer to be on the contrary side of the market, simply because that seems to work best. When people exit their positions to either take a profit or escape the loss a bounce is much stronger if you're going against the trend. But if you do this you need to be aware when your setup fails, otherwise you could lose five or six ticks.
That's interesting, thanks.
To clarify, do you use the principle of 'buying in the dips' with minor retracements, and lay a upward trending market when it makes a small move against the main trend? Or in that situation, would you trade the retracement itself?
Jeff
To clarify, do you use the principle of 'buying in the dips' with minor retracements, and lay a upward trending market when it makes a small move against the main trend? Or in that situation, would you trade the retracement itself?
Jeff
Bet Angel wrote:
I would prefer to be on the contrary side of the market, simply because that seems to work best. When people exit their positions to either take a profit or escape the loss a bounce is much stronger if you're going against the trend. But if you do this you need to be aware when your setup fails, otherwise you could lose five or six ticks.
I don't suppose a stochastic could be introduced into the charting to help users spot instances where a horse is 'over-bought' or 'over-layed'?
A MACD would also be useful in highlighting possible reverses in trend.
Just a thought...
Jeff
A MACD would also be useful in highlighting possible reverses in trend.
Just a thought...
Jeff
Bet Angel wrote:Basically rather than looking for a trend, I am looking for a trend to end. It doesn't work for everybody as its very counter intuitive.
The trend is your friend until the end!
It's very easy to integrate any technical indicator onto the charting spreadsheet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_P7cURHwz7w
I have emailed you the calculations for MACD.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_P7cURHwz7w
I have emailed you the calculations for MACD.
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JacoboPolavieja
- Posts: 91
- Joined: Thu Sep 10, 2009 6:00 pm
Just catching up with the forum I read this thread... very interesting one.
Just to quick questions about it:
1. Doesn't happen many times that a trend develops and the it stopts to be ranging close till the off? I know there are also some that end and come back or continue... but I thought most of them didn't have time to usually clearly trend more than once.
Unless we are considering "trend" a 5-6 ticks movement that dies. May that be it?
2. BetAngel, could you please upload or send me the MACD spreadsheet? It's something I've been willing to implement for a while and would be great to have and see how it's implemented to develop future indicators on excel. Thank you.
Cheers!
Just to quick questions about it:
1. Doesn't happen many times that a trend develops and the it stopts to be ranging close till the off? I know there are also some that end and come back or continue... but I thought most of them didn't have time to usually clearly trend more than once.
Unless we are considering "trend" a 5-6 ticks movement that dies. May that be it?
2. BetAngel, could you please upload or send me the MACD spreadsheet? It's something I've been willing to implement for a while and would be great to have and see how it's implemented to develop future indicators on excel. Thank you.
Cheers!
Hi Jacobo,1. Doesn't happen many times that a trend develops and the it stopts to be ranging close till the off? I know there are also some that end and come back or continue... but I thought most of them didn't have time to usually clearly trend more than once.
Unless we are considering "trend" a 5-6 ticks movement that dies. May that be it?
Trends in horse racing are ALL over the place. You have correctly identified the key question is how is a trend defined in horse racing?
I have been watching the 1st, 2nd and 3rd favourites today and trends in the range of 20 ticks have occurred regularly.
How is a trend defined? In the financial markets the classic example is the Turtles - who used moving averages and typically 2 moving averages are used. There are many time ranges used to trade - from 1 tick, 1min, 5min, 60min, daily etc.
If the price is above the moving average you BUY (LAY in horsing racing terms) and if it is below you SELL (BACK in horse racing terms).
Because in horse racing terms we are only trading for 10 minutes typically Bet Angel has provided us with the charts to follow this - eg Candle Back Only 5 seconds.
However what is the disadvantage of trend following?
Being WHIPSAWed!!!!!!!!!!
So we are entering when the price is above the moving average only to find that the price moves in the opposite direction - our stop loss is triggered!
In fact we find this happening another 9 times! Our stop loss was set at 3 ticks.
We have just lost 30 ticks! Lets say we do catch a 20 tick wave this means we are down 10 ticks! However if none occur we are down 30 ticks. (And off course if this happened then we should have using a range based trading system eg Stoichastics - which frustrates us even more!)
BUT we could time the trade perfectly and be up 20 ticks. Or we are only whipsawed a couple of times and still be in profit.
As others have said TA is not a perfect science and there are no Holly Grails out there.
The key skill (somehow) is knowing when to take the signal and when to leave them alone - sorry I can not be any more helpful - need to find something which works for you.
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JacoboPolavieja
- Posts: 91
- Joined: Thu Sep 10, 2009 6:00 pm
Hi ba100!
Yesterday I analyzed and watched to see if what I thought was real or just an impression... as you said, I couldn't be more wrong. Although there are some races with little movements (and as you say, those can be killers if your trying to swing trade as the moment you're in the market turns against you usually in wide manner), there are lots of ones with more than 2 and 3 big movements.
Of course, you cannot catch them all, sometimes due to timing and sometimes just because they happen on 2 or 3 horses at the same time.
After a while I tried a couple of things based on some TA and they did pay out. We'll see how it goes today.
Thanks for all! Cheers!
Yesterday I analyzed and watched to see if what I thought was real or just an impression... as you said, I couldn't be more wrong. Although there are some races with little movements (and as you say, those can be killers if your trying to swing trade as the moment you're in the market turns against you usually in wide manner), there are lots of ones with more than 2 and 3 big movements.
Of course, you cannot catch them all, sometimes due to timing and sometimes just because they happen on 2 or 3 horses at the same time.
After a while I tried a couple of things based on some TA and they did pay out. We'll see how it goes today.
Thanks for all! Cheers!
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JacoboPolavieja
- Posts: 91
- Joined: Thu Sep 10, 2009 6:00 pm
Yes and no... I mean, as we said, there's nothing definite in TA, but it sure can give you warnings. In the case you're talking about I can't see why they wouldn't be there. A different thing would be what to look at, and how to react to it.Mug wrote:If two horses are steaming in no amount of analysis will stop another one going in the opposite direction.
Cheers!
P.S: All my opinions are to be taken as a novice ones... no great wisdom here, just trying to learn everyday.