Never mind, there are people that are far worse off than me!As you know I tend to look at opposing favourites where possible and in this race we may just have a chance to get Fame and Glory turned over at short odds.
When you price up a race, well at least when I price up a race, the first things I look for are current and recent form, time from last run, going, distance and opposition.
This horse was almost flogged to death last year and thankfully his connections have eased off this year. He won last time at the Curragh and if you read the racing media and listen to the experts on Racing Post TV this horse is already home and hosed
I keep reading that he has solid Group 1 form at this trip but I cannot seem to find it. I have looked at this Irish Derby win and there were no superstars in the field that day. In fact, if Sea the Stars had turned up then he would not have that win against his name. I appreciate that is a bit over the top but you do have to look at what he beat that day and the answer is not much.
He then contested 5 more races of 10f and he was turned over on each occasion. The last defeat was at odds of 2/5f against horses that were 2 stone inferior to him when he ran at the Curragh on 11th April. Okay so the ground was poor that day but it was the same for the other horses and if he is as good as is made out then he really should have won that race. Connections say he needed the run but I would ask why they are running a Group 1 horse in a race when he's not fit. I thought schooling in public had been banned! I reckon they thought he would win that day and then had to reach for the "get out of jail" card when he bombed!
They then brought him out at the Curragh again on 3rd May in another Egg and Spoon race and he duly sluiced up........against horses that were 2 stone inferior to him with the best of them being a mile horse
So the form is not exactly the best you will see for a horse of this standing. That would make me worried unless he was 2/1 or bigger.
We then need to look at the ground. He is by Montjeu and his progeny tend to prefer some cut in the ground. Well I would suggest it is going to be like a road at the Curragh so that surely has to be another worry.
His breeding also suggests he is a 12f horse and in fact I personally believe he may actually be seen at his best over further! His sire suggests minimum 12f but on the dam side it suggests 12f+ so today's trip of 10.5f on FAST ground may see him lacking some toe!
There are enough negatives above for me to not want to back this horse at odds against but then you find out he is odds on at 4/6 with the bookies and 1.80 on Betfair
So can we find something to beat him? Well if you look at Cutlass Bay you have a lightly raced animal that is fairly unexposed and open to improvement. Some lines of form put this horse in front of Fame and Glory, something that is highlighted in the Racing Post comments. This horse is now with Godolphin, he will like the ground and is more likely to be suited to the trip than Fame and Glory. The one concern is that he is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor who is woefully out of form....HOWEVER, he has only just come to the yard from the excellent Andre Fabre so it isn't that bad!
If you look at the prices then they appear to be wrong. 1.80 for a horse that seems slow at this trip, had only beaten trees in his last run and possibly seems unsuited by the fast ground. You can get 3.50 about his rival who will handle the ground, love the trip, is in good recent form and is progressive.
I know which one I will side with and I have taken a small interest already. I think we may catch a nice drift on Fame and Glory later and he is a decent horse to lay pre race and back in running because he will probably hit a flat spot and will require stoking up. He may win by half the track but at 1.80 there is no value in his price!
