Automation / Logic question

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bowser
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:40 pm

I apologise if this is too stupid a question, but I want to get it clear in my mind. I've downloaded the software and applied some of the shared football files, to learn the process & see the outcomes. I was intrigued with the 'lay the draw' file, and understand the ideal scenario for it to be deployed (strong favourite etc) and wanted to make sure I had the logic of it correct in my mind, to be able to apply the same logic to other scenarios...so:
  • Likely/Ideal game identified
    Lay the draw at kickoff at whatever odds are on offer
    Hopefully the favourite scores, therefore the odds for the draw go UP
    Green up to achieve a profit regardless of outcome.
So i can see it working, and its impressive (test mode only!) but is the logic:
  • Find what I think is a 'likely' outcome - lets say 'over 2.5 goals' as an example
    Lay 'UNDER 2.5 goals'
    Hopefully there's a goal, therefore the odds for 'over 2.5 goals' goes UP
    Green up to achieve a profit regardless of outcome....
Do i have that right? As above, i apologise for the newbie question, but i really like this software, and i'm keen to stop mug punting and would rather take a structured, trading style approach...

Cheers!
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Dallas
Posts: 23599
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

When laying the draw in a match with a strong fav the odds will indeed fly out if the fav scores, however if the dog scores the draw odds can often shorten (as the fav would be expected to equalize therefore a draw will become more likely)

So it tends to work best on matches without a strong fav where no matter which team scores the odds will drift and you'll have a profit.
All your then trying to do is identify matches where goals are likely

Betting/trading in an O/U is different, here it doesn't matter if there's a strong fav or not so you can target pretty much any match as long as you feel there will be goals (if backing overs or laying unders)

Bet Angel also has Soccer mystic which is a predictor tool which will tell you how the odds are expected to move following a goal, so you could use it ahead of both strategies above and many more to help find the right entry/exit points.
The following is thread has a few examples on using it
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=12116

ie, find a match with a strong fav then enter some goal times for the dog and see how that would effect the draw price
bowser
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:40 pm

Appreciate the guidance, its slowly becoming clear :)
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