everything has been going great, now this

[geoffrey1928]

Well, day after day of profits, great. Now I lost over 200 pounds on one race. What didn't happen? What did happen? What mistake have I made? I know it's part of a learning curve, but right now I just feel like giving up, if someone can tell me how to avoid (or at least lower the chance of this happening again) then please help.

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[wearthefoxhat]

The only thing I could think of are the recent posts from Peter Webb that warned about Betfairs' delay(s) when going In-Play. (no idea why)
By the time your Green Up could take effect, the price dropped too low to cover the whole bet.

[sa7med]

Well, day after day of profits, great. Now I lost over 200 pounds on one race. What didn't happen? What did happen? What mistake have I made? I know it's part of a learning curve, but right now I just feel like giving up, if someone can tell me how to avoid (or at least lower the chance of this happening again) then please help.

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Why are you greening up in play? Prices move too quickly plus there's the delay.

[BrianDee]

Hey G, sorry it's gone evil for you
In general terms, you can often win quite a bit with a flawed strategy - before it bites back - hard.
To be specific on this bot, I'd be very wary of any open/close in first 30 seconds of a race.
Prices and fills can be wild - IMHO it's Russian Roulette.
My 2c
-BD-

[geoffrey1928]

First of all, the question about why would I green up in play? My question is, why wouldn't you green up in play? If the profit is there to be had before the off, why on earth wouldn't you take it? Sorry, Sa7med I don't see the point of your question.

[geoffrey1928]

BrianD - thanks for your reply, you mention about a flawed strategy, my question would be, what is the flaw? Is the flaw with the strategy or is it something that Betfair did, ie race suspended for longer than the 15/20 seconds or so?

[geoffrey1928]

Can I improve things with this strategy? ie make the time of greening up etc longer than the present 20 seconds? Have the stop/loss fire multiple times? Please, advice really appreciated.

[Derek27]

First of all, the question about why would I green up in play? My question is, why wouldn't you green up in play? If the profit is there to be had before the off, why on earth wouldn't you take it? Sorry, Sa7med I don't see the point of your question.

The point is Geoffrey, if you greened up before the off you could have traded out at about 12.5 for a small loss. In-play, it seems only a small part of your bet got matched and as the horse won the price would have crashed down quickly so you're unable to get out.

If you lay a horse for £26 at 13.5 you have a liability of £325. If you green up before the off you're only risking a small fraction of it whereas if you green in-play you're potentially risking all of it.

[geoffrey1928]

Derek, I was merely saying that if the required profit is there pre race, then you take it, waiting for waiting sake is makes no sense.

This strategy is base don slow starting horses, so you would expect to go in race, otherwise the idea behind this strategy would be a no starter.

[Dallas]

Well, day after day of profits, great. Now I lost over 200 pounds on one race. What didn't happen? What did happen? What mistake have I made? I know it's part of a learning curve, but right now I just feel like giving up, if someone can tell me how to avoid (or at least lower the chance of this happening again) then please help.

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I did give you the answer last time you asked
viewtopic.php?f=37&t=19006

and I know I've also said the same on at least 2 of your other threads

[Derek27]

Derek, I was merely saying that if the required profit is there pre race, then you take it, waiting for waiting sake is makes no sense.

This strategy is base don slow starting horses, so you would expect to go in race, otherwise the idea behind this strategy would be a no starter.

I think there's been a bit of confusion in that we didn't realise it's an in-play strategy.

If your strategy is based on laying slow-starting horses at odds of 13.5 and backing them in-play, fair enough, but I don't understand why you're surprised that one's gone against you. If the price went out to 16.5 and your trade was closed you would have won £4.73, but you're actually risking £325 to achieve that - quite a risky strategy!

Horses that start with a BSP of 12.5 will win about 8% of the time with potentially huge liabilities that could wipe out your profits. I think this is what BrianDee was alluding to with flawed strategies (like laying at big prices) - they can work well until you get a loser.

Perhaps the strategy needs rethinking?

[geoffrey1928]

Derek, that's why there's a stop loss rule within the strategy, this is supposed to kick in after around 20 seconds, if the required profit hasn't been reached - did you think I was just laying a horse, hoping it wouldn't win?

[geoffrey1928]

Dallas, thank you. I really shouldn't have been trading the last week or so, still flued up. If I increase the amount of time for the stop/loss, increase the number of times the rule will trigger, would I have to add a condition to stop it firing again if successful? Or would it imply not fire again once it had been successful?

[Derek27]

Derek, that's why there's a stop loss rule within the strategy, this is supposed to kick in after around 20 seconds, if the required profit hasn't been reached - did you think I was just laying a horse, hoping it wouldn't win?

I see Dallas has already explained on the other thread that there's never a guarantee that a bet will be matched in-play because the prices move too fast, so to some extent the strategy does involve hoping the horse doesn't win and drag the price quickly towards 1.01.

You started this thread questioning why you lost in excess of £200, all I'm saying is that it's not necessarily the automation that's failed. The strategy itself is risky.

Some of your stop loss was matched at 12.5 before the price moved. You need to consider what price would your next stop loss be? What price would the horse have been when it fires? Would it have been matched?

[firlandsfarm]

Geoffrey, I'm afraid I'm agreeing with all the advice you are getting, sorry. I've been there and done what you are doing and paid the price! Have a look at this graph of a recent runner …



The chances are your green-up would have missed the price because of the delay and maybe insufficient liquidity and even repeated green-ups may have been left in the wake of the falling price. One way of reducing your loss when you hit such a problem would be to put in a back bet at low odds if there are unmatched bets still in the market after your green-up (meaning the green-up hasn't worked). I'm not recommending this I'm just putting it forward as a possible way to cut your losses.