EFL Cup 2019/20 - First Round

[northbound]

Here's a trading/betting idea for the EFL Cup First Round tonight.

In the past two seasons, favourites on the whole were slightly underestimated. Backing every odds on favourite with £1 would have returned around £0.80 profit overall, in each season.

So tonight I'm going to try a little experiment. A few minutes before Kick Off, I will back every odds on favourite using £1 stake (notional). I'll also put these matches in a Guardian Watch List and if at any point the overall profit is above a certain level (£2 or £3, haven't decided yet), I'll close all of my positions.

Tonight there will be around 18 odds on favs, but please note that around 6 of them will have their Match Odds market Unmanaged.

[ShaunWhite]

Backing every odds on favourite with £1 would have returned around £0.80 profit overall, in each season.

Thanks for sharing.
And are you saying the season return would have been 0.8 * Stake, or given what you say about Guardian is that the weekly return?
...and was that net or gross?

So if it's 80p in the £ in each season then, eg 200 selections per season @ £50 stake => (0.8 * £50) / (200 * 50) = 0.4% ?
Or if it's 80p in the £ in each week then, eg 10 selections per week @ £50 stake => (0.8 * £50) / (10 * 50) = 8% ?

Sorry I've got so many questions.

[northbound]

And are you saying the season return would have been 0.8 * Stake, or given what you say about Guardian is that the weekly return?
...and was that net or gross?

Hey Shaun, This research is specific to the First Round of the EFL Cup, which usually takes place early August.

So early season, some clubs might field a mixture of first team players and reserves, some might not be that bothered about advancing as perhaps they prioritise the league, etc. So it could be argued that odds might not always be accurate at this stage of the competition.

With regards to my figures, they are simulated by backing each odds on fav with £1. Odds are average pre-off bookie odds found on oddsportal.com archives. So commission doesn't come into place.

2017/18
25 odds on favs
£25 invested (£1 x 25 bets)
+£0.84 profit overall
E/V = 3.36%

2018/19
20 odds on favs
£20 invested (£1 x 20 bets)
+£0.89 profit overall
E/V = 4.45%

[northbound]

Here's what I backed.

Forest has been backed because bookie odds were < 2.00 and my research was based on bookie odds. Betfair odds were better than evens as you can see, but if you take the 5% commission out of the possible payout, odds work out at worse than evens.

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[ShaunWhite]

Thanks for all that. Interesting.

[northbound]

This experimental "bucket" of games has now been completed with an overall loss, though not a massive one. Here's the recap:

2019/20
18 odds on favs
£18 invested (£1 x 18 bets)
-£1.73 loss overall
E/V = -9.61%

Many thanks to Gillingham for letting Newport County equalise in the fourth minute of added time...

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Screenshot 2019-08-13 at 23.02.18.png

[spreadbetting]

Odds on shots in football are rarely value and bookies always underprice the selections they think will attract money. I can see the logic behind your reasoning that teams may not play full squads but surely that'd apply to both teams unless you put more effort into selections than looking at the last two seasons.

[northbound]

You make some valid points about odds on favs, spreadbetting, but I tend not to agree with the “putting more efforts into my selections”.

Everybody nowadays does that when it comes to football, everybody chases more data and a more in-depth view. I’m trying to do the opposite, which is to take a bird-eye view approach instead.

[spreadbetting]

Fair enough, I find football one of the hardest sports to predict with any accuracy but if I was going for a scattergun approach I'd be looking to bet where the market was likely to be underestimating the probabilities rather than overestimating them.

[Kai]

Nice drift on Huddersfield after teamnews came out

[northbound]

Fair enough, I find football one of the hardest sports to predict with any accuracy but if I was going for a scattergun approach I'd be looking to bet where the market was likely to be underestimating the probabilities rather than overestimating them.

I agree and did a bucket of matches in this competition at this stage because felt the market could underestimate favs as a whole. Just because something is odds on, it doesn't mean that it's never value. I did something similar in the Africa Cup Of Nations backing Under 2.5 Goals, which were basically always odds on. It went rather well.

[northbound]

Nice drift on Huddersfield after teamnews came out

Kai, My strategy was about backing favs a few minutes before Kick Off, defo not before teams were announced.

However, that chart gives me another potential idea to try during early round Cup games when there’s uncertainty over the lineup of a number of favs.

- 3 hrs before Kick Off, lay all the odds on favs
- Just before Kick Off, close all trades
- See if overall you’re profitable

Something to think about for EFL Cup Round 2 (27 Aug) and EFL Trophy Round 1 (3 Sep).

[Kai]

Something to think about for EFL Cup Round 2 (27 Aug) and EFL Trophy Round 1 (3 Sep).

https://www.wikihow.com/Stop-Thinking-Out-Loud

[northbound]

[northbound]

BTW I’m just trying to share and discuss actionable ideas as am fed up with the useless cryptic stuff I see posted everywhere online. Not to mention P/L screenshots.