Accumulator of Under 1.5 & Over 3.5 Goals In The Premiership

[aidenrn810]

What are people's thoughts on the below?

Rather than the close odds of Under/Over 2.5 Goals how about an accumulator on the Premiership Games for Over 1.5 goals where I predict some goals and Under 3.5 goals where I predict defenses to win out.

Liverpool Newcastle : Over 1.5 due to Liverpool's strike force at home
Brighton v Burnley : Under 3.5 as long as Barnes does not keep going as these are evenly matched sides
Man Utd v Leicester : Under 3.5 as Maguire will have a point to prove and Utd are not firing on all cylinders still
Sheff Utd v Southampton : Under 3.5 as it will be a cagey affair between 2 closely matched sides
Tottenham v Palace : Under 3.5 as Palace have been tight so far and will be defending for long periods and Spurs are still uncertain at their new home
Wolves v Chelsea : Over 1.5 goals as two attacking sides from two managers who like to play for goals
Norwich v Man City : Over 1.5 goals as both are free scoring this season so far
Bournemouth v Everton : Over 1.5 goals as they have had some high scoring games in the last couple of seasons
Watford v Arsenal : Over 1.5 goals as both are poor defensively, new Watford managaer (well returning anyway) and the crowd with be up for it
Villa v West Ham : Under 3.5 goals as two evenly matched sides will not create many clear chances

Odds of 10/1 from B365 (cash out available as well throughout the weekend)
Or could cover with 7 or 8 folds out of 10 instead.

[Derek27]

Accumulators are great fun for recreational punters and gives them a chance to win big, but at 10/1 you could easily find that in a correct score market!

If you're more serious about making money and finding value there is no logical reason why you would want to have more on one selection just because another wins. Does 10/1 really strike you as value for all those selections winning?

[Euler]

Always felt there must be a gap in the market for an acca exchange. Could really show up the bad value given by sports books.

[ShaunWhite]

Odds of 10/1 from B365 (cash out available as well throughout the weekend)
Or could cover with 7 or 8 folds out of 10 instead.

You don't seem to be thinking about whether the prices on offer are good value. You might think Spurs v Palace will be under 3.5 but is that being offered at the right price....or is over 3.5 the value bet? Making money gambling (which is what this is) relies 100% on constantly obtaining good value. Gambling is NOT about picking winners and losers, it's about picking value winners and losers.

Take that Spurs vs Palace U3.5 ....it's 1.56 on BF.....what price do you think that should be? 1.3? 1.55? 1.8? One judgement makes it a back, one makes it a lay and the other makes it a don't bother.

[aidenrn810]

FUN Derek is exactly what me starting this thread was about.

A discussion point was all that was intended, not another series of serious "look for value" returns without any guidance on what or where you personally consider value to me.

it's Friday..............

[ShaunWhite]

FUN Derek is exactly what me starting this thread was about.

A discussion point was all that was intended, not another series of serious "look for value" returns without any guidance on what or where you personally consider value to me.

it's Friday..............

Fair enough aidenrn810. I never bet for 'fun' so was in work mode.

Not quite 100% true actually, I'll have a 'fun' £2 on 6 correct scores or the lottery .... life-changing fun rather than all the fun of backing a 10/1 shot that ought to be 12s.

[Derek27]

FUN Derek is exactly what me starting this thread was about.

A discussion point was all that was intended, not another series of serious "look for value" returns without any guidance on what or where you personally consider value to me.

it's Friday..............

You did ask what are thoughts are.

I used to do £2 accumulators on the horses, half for me and half for a nominated charity. But even so, on the face of it 10/1 doesn't seem worthwhile to me for all 10 U/Os to pop up. I'd much rather pick a scoreline - what's wrong with having value and fun?

[aidenrn810]

What scoreline are you picking then Derek?

[Derek27]

I'm not, I don't know anything about football.

I'm just saying, if you take gambling seriously but what to have a 'fun' bet, I would pick a few bets in a sport I'm knowledgable about (no longer study sport), look for selections that are at least close to value, and do them in an accumulator to return something decent, rather than just filling the bookie's pockets. Perhaps £5 to win £10K. At odds of 10/1 you'd have to stake a fair bit to win anything that really feels like fun.

[aidenrn810]

If you don't study sport anymore why are you on a sports trading forum?

It's no problem you not putting forward an alternative 10/1 or 12/1 or value option for others to review.

Some gambling is serious - but you must balance this with some gambling for fun as well (i.e. staked they are significant or you can lose) - otherwise it really is a dull world.

[ShaunWhite]

If you don't study sport anymore why are you on a sports trading forum?

I can't speak for Derek but I've almost no interest in sport (apart from as an armchair spectator). I just trade numbers and I don't care if it's dogs, horses, football or pingpong. When you're trading having an indepth knowledge can even be a disadvantage because you get married to your own opinions rather than feeling what the market's doing.

Some gambling is serious - but you must balance this with some gambling for fun as well (i.e. staked they are significant or you can lose) - otherwise it really is a dull world.

When you make your living from doing something it's hard to then do the same thing wrecklessly and see it as fun. I for one also used to have a slight gambling problem about 20 yrs ago so I avoid gambling, which isn't hard actually because I have no interest in it at all. It must be over a decade since I had what you'd call a proper bet on anything.

[aidenrn810]

Fair enough Shaun, you explain your thoughts and outlook in a great way.

[spock]

I'm in Shaun's camp on this.
I've played this game for years (many years) If you do it for fun then fair enough.
To me this is a serious. I don't participate in random speculative events, I do it (gamble) only when I consider the risk is less than the potential reward, if you do this in a disciplined consistant way you make money. You want fun, meet your mates down the pub or whatever floats your boat.
I think I may be of topic a bit but trading in general is not party time, that comes later!
Les

[Derek27]

If you don't study sport anymore why are you on a sports trading forum?

It's no problem you not putting forward an alternative 10/1 or 12/1 or value option for others to review.

Some gambling is serious - but you must balance this with some gambling for fun as well (i.e. staked they are significant or you can lose) - otherwise it really is a dull world.

Shaun's more or less answered. I used to take betting on horse racing seriously and study it, but now I'm a cold trader and just look at numbers on the screen.

The reason I don't put forward a value accumulator is that there isn't one. It's difficult enough to find 6 value bets, putting 6 in an accumulator is extremely unlikely to be value, which is why bookies love them. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with it, I used to pick a few big priced horses that I thought were overlooked and put them in my charity accumulator but now that I spend so many hours in front of my computer and watching sport I couldn't include it in my leisure time as well.

From a 'fun' point of view though, my old accumulators and your O/U accum probably has a % edge over a lottery ticket and alternatives and at least we can give ourselves a pat on the back when it comes in rather than thanking our lucky stars for a windfall, so I certainly wouldn't put you off having a go. Good luck.

[aidenrn810]

Original thread post ""

What are people's thoughts on the below?

Rather than the close odds of Under/Over 2.5 Goals how about an accumulator on the Premiership Games for Over 1.5 goals where I predict some goals and Under 3.5 goals where I predict defenses to win out.

Liverpool Newcastle : Over 1.5 due to Liverpool's strike force at home
Brighton v Burnley : Under 3.5 as long as Barnes does not keep going as these are evenly matched sides
Man Utd v Leicester : Under 3.5 as Maguire will have a point to prove and Utd are not firing on all cylinders still
Sheff Utd v Southampton : Under 3.5 as it will be a cagey affair between 2 closely matched sides
Tottenham v Palace : Under 3.5 as Palace have been tight so far and will be defending for long periods and Spurs are still uncertain at their new home
Wolves v Chelsea : Over 1.5 goals as two attacking sides from two managers who like to play for goals
Norwich v Man City : Over 1.5 goals as both are free scoring this season so far
Bournemouth v Everton : Over 1.5 goals as they have had some high scoring games in the last couple of seasons
Watford v Arsenal : Over 1.5 goals as both are poor defensively, new Watford managaer (well returning anyway) and the crowd with be up for it
Villa v West Ham : Under 3.5 goals as two evenly matched sides will not create many clear chances

Odds of 10/1 from B365 (cash out available as well throughout the weekend)
Or could cover with 7 or 8 folds out of 10 instead.

So all came up except for Spurs v Palace ---- which was 1 goal out with it being 4-0

The 8-fold accumulator I did paid out with a 20% profit. An enjoyable fun bet over weekend..............