First half goal probabilities

[daniel6791]

Hi

Does anyone know how to calculate the probabilities of Over 0.5 first half goals in a match? Can it be done once you’ve calculated the probabilities of the correct scores?

[Atho55]

Does this help

HT Odds Over 0.5.jpg

[jamesg46]

Hi

Does anyone know how to calculate the probabilities of Over 0.5 first half goals in a match? Can it be done once you’ve calculated the probabilities of the correct scores?
1/Odds x 100= Probability

[JTEDL]

The odds shown on the 'First Half Goals 0.5' market will have worked this out for you already. Or if you mean in general, then 2 out of 3 games have at least 1 first half goal.

[Kafkaesque]

Hi

Does anyone know how to calculate the probabilities of Over 0.5 first half goals in a match? Can it be done once you’ve calculated the probabilities of the correct scores?

As the other replies so far have shown, a bit more specific info would help. Are you looking to calculate your own percentage chance of a first half goal based on your own calculations/estimation of correct score prices?

[daniel6791]

@kafkaesque

Hi. Yes, that’s exactly what I’m trying to do, apologies for not being clear.

I can calculate my own correct score, Over and Unders and Match Odds probabilities and odds, I’m just not sure how to go about calculating the probabilities and odds of O/U0.5 First Half Goal

[Andriy]

Assuming you've used some sort of goal expectancy for both teams to create your full time correct scores, you can use that to calculate all the half time scores, based on the %age of goals scored in the 1st half. I use a default of 0.44 (44%), based on average over a few seasons in top euro leagues. Then consider it as a 45 minute game, with amended goal expectancies. If the 90 min ones are 1.8 and 1.2 for example, then the 1st half expectancies are (1.8*0.44) and (1.2*0.44) respectively, so just plug the resulting values 0.79 and 0.53 into your model to get all the half time correct scores.