When To Trade Out For A Loss?

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

I started to watch a Japanese game 5 minutes before half time. It was 1-1. The home team were dominating possession and I was convinced they would score more goals. At half time I looked at the form and both teams conceded and scored plenty of goals. So placed I bet on over 2.5 goals so just one goal was needed for me to make a profit. I was convinced it would happen but after 80 minutes it was still 1-1 so I traded in for a 50% loss but low and behold the team actually went and scored 2 more goals.


(This was only 20p but its the principal that counts. At half time I was 100% convinced they would eventually score but traded in before they scored 2 goals)

[Kai]

The home team were dominating possession and I was convinced they would score more goals.

Possession alone does not guarantee goals in modern football, it's a worthless stat against teams that are good in transitions/counters/set pieces etc. Sounds like you framed the trade wrong or didn't frame it at all, if you were ignoring prices and were looking for just 1 goal but bailed during the last 15ish mins when they come most often.

Btw I've actually tried using this strategy years ago (looking for one 2nd half goal), I've posted a screenie of how my testing phase went but in the end it didn't quite work out for me, to say the least. You can avoid a lot of mistakes yourself by learning from mistakes of others.

viewtopic.php?p=198700#p198700

[ShaunWhite]

I was convinced it would happen

No trader is ever convinced something will happen, only convinced of the probability that something will happen. Nothing is ever 100% as you know, so it would be better if you think in terms of "I'm convinced that this will happen 85% of the time" and use that to look at the risk/reward and plan your trade accordingly. You seem to still have a punter's mindset rather than a trader's and understanding the difference is absolutely essential.

[JustLukeYou]

I was convinced it would happen

No trader is ever convinced something will happen, only convinced of the probability that something will happen. Nothing is ever 100% as you know, so it would be better if you think in terms of "I'm convinced that this will happen 85% of the time" and use that to look at the risk/reward and plan your trade accordingly. You seem to still have a punter's mindset rather than a trader's and understanding the difference is absolutely essential.

Hi, I am not totally sure what you mean. In this example I was convinced they would score. In hindsight I should have watched the match for longer and backed them to win. The reward would have been much higher. But if I think a team will win because they are attacking the most and getting the most chances isn't that still gambling. I am betting that the team will score. If I think a team will win or score and they don't I still can't make a profit even if I am trading.

[Jukebox]

Next time you see a similar opportunity - you now have the experience to only earmark it and to look again to enter at 80mins when the risk/reward will be much more in your favour - and if they've already scored by that time youve lost nothing.

[Derek27]

Hi,

I started to watch a Japanese game 5 minutes before half time. It was 1-1. The home team were dominating possession and I was convinced they would score more goals. At half time I looked at the form and both teams conceded and scored plenty of goals. So placed I bet on over 2.5 goals so just one goal was needed for me to make a profit. I was convinced it would happen but after 80 minutes it was still 1-1 so I traded in for a 50% loss but low and behold the team actually went and scored 2 more goals.


(This was only 20p but its the principal that counts. At half time I was 100% convinced they would eventually score but traded in before they scored 2 goals)

You need to decide in advance whether you're gambling or trading. If you are gambling, you need to decide if the bet is value. What was the price you took? What was your expected probability of a goal? Was the price over or under the price of your expected probability?

If you're trading you need to decide on an exit plan before opening the trade.

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

When you say probability to what extent do you mean?

I felt incredibly confident that the home team would score and they did. I'm not sure how I can calculate the probability of that.

I should waited longer and backed the home team to win.


Also if I said I would exit at 70 minutes but at 70 minutes I am still sure they will score what should I do?

[spreadbetting]

I felt incredibly confident that the home team would score and they did. I'm not sure how I can calculate the probability of that.

That comes with experience, all you can do for now is look at the odds on offer as they'll always be a decent guage as to how the game is going in the eyes of thousands of others watching the match too, many with years more experience than you.

Waiting longer would have been pointless as they may well have scored in the next minute if they were dominating, you can't base all your strategies from what happens in two or three games. Start watching the odds on offer when you've made your choice and start watching how they move in line with what happens on the pitch. Many people overestimate the chances of something happening, or not happening, and those are the times to play. If something looks obvious you won't be the only person to have spotted it.

[JustLukeYou]

My concern is that if I cash out all the time I am making losses when I can actually make a profit.

[ShaunWhite]

When you say probability to what extent do you mean?

I felt incredibly confident that the home team would score and they did. I'm not sure how I can calculate the probability of that.

Initially it's you own judgement rather than a formula. Nothing is 0% and nothing is 100% that's a given, so how do you personally rate your "incredibly confident". For me that phrase would mean 90-95% -ish. And 'fairly confident' would mean 66%..ish. The next stage is to rate your confidence that your judgement is right, eg I'm 80% confident that my guess that I'm 95% certain is correct.... But that's when you start to disappear down a wormhole and for a later date ie when you are 'incredibly confident', how often is that the outcome, was it 95% or less? 'Incredibly confident' then starts to relate to a real concrete number.

One interesting exercise I've seen is for people to give a range of anwsers to a questions they probably don't know the actual answers to, but to within a 90% confidence, no more, no less. So the question might be, how far away is the moon.... some will answer between 50miles and 5billion miles, if they don't trust their judgement. Others might say between 240,000 and 245,000 miles if they are very condfident about their judgement. Remember both people are trying to be right 90% of the time, yet will give different ranges. It sounds like you are someone who would give very tight ranges because you appear to be very confident in your opinion, sometimes the full 100%.

If you fully trust your judgement, and your judgments are also very accurate, that's when you're in a great position to find edges. It no good being confident and making bad guesses, or being great at guessing but not trusting it. Confidence is the key to deciding how big your stake should be, is it a £1 trade, or do you mortgage your house? Accuracy is what determines whether you still have your house or have to go and live in a box.

(8 edits I hate typos and I also can never stop myself going back and adding bits )

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

Yes I was 90-100% sure the home team would score but I 'chickened out'.


If I don't 'chicken out' my strike rate could be much higher.

[ShaunWhite]

Hi,

Yes I was 90-100% sure the home team would score but I 'chickened out'.

If I don't 'chicken out' my strike rate could be much higher.

You can't be 100% confident, unless the ref has got the whistle in his mouth, and drawn breath. Crazy stuff happens in football and when you trade 100s of games, crazy stuff will happen, fact. So forget 100%.

Would it be much higher, how do you know? How often does the home team score when you're 95% sure?

The one thing for certain buddy is that after a few months of trading, I promise you you'll never say that you're 100% confident about anything again. Your P&L will keep your ego in check.

[Derek27]

Hi,

Yes I was 90-100% sure the home team would score but I 'chickened out'.


If I don't 'chicken out' my strike rate could be much higher.

The operative word here is could.

If you don't chicken out you will be better off sometimes, but chickening out of a fight can sometimes save your life!

Recreational gamblers can place accumulators and "chicken out" halfway through, but if you take trading or gambling seriously you have to have clear objectives before placing a bet or trade, and an exit strategy before a trade. I've heard a Para commander say that Paras never retreat, they withdraw. Traders don't chicken out - they re-evaluate their exit strategy because a trade is never a dare.

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

Yes I was 90-100% sure the home team would score but I 'chickened out'.


If I don't 'chicken out' my strike rate could be much higher.

The operative word here is could.

If you don't chicken out you will be better off sometimes, but chickening out of a fight can sometimes save your life!

Recreational gamblers can place accumulators and "chicken out" halfway through, but if you take trading or gambling seriously you have to have clear objectives before placing a bet or trade, and an exit strategy before a trade. I've heard a Para commander say that Paras never retreat, they withdraw. Traders don't chicken out - they re-evaluate their exit strategy because a trade is never a dare.

Are there any tips I can follow. I find it helps not to have the sound on when watching the match. For example, sometimes you can get caught up in the cheering or a loud drum instead of just watching what the players are doing.

[Derek27]

Hi,

Yes I was 90-100% sure the home team would score but I 'chickened out'.


If I don't 'chicken out' my strike rate could be much higher.

The operative word here is could.

If you don't chicken out you will be better off sometimes, but chickening out of a fight can sometimes save your life!

Recreational gamblers can place accumulators and "chicken out" halfway through, but if you take trading or gambling seriously you have to have clear objectives before placing a bet or trade, and an exit strategy before a trade. I've heard a Para commander say that Paras never retreat, they withdraw. Traders don't chicken out - they re-evaluate their exit strategy because a trade is never a dare.

Are there any tips I can follow. I find it helps not to have the sound on when watching the match. For example, sometimes you can get caught up in the cheering or a loud drum instead of just watching what the players are doing.

Yes, there are thousands of tipsters on the internet and in the newspapers, you can follow any one of them. I don't quite know what you expect to achieve by following tips?