Could I Be A Football Trading Savant But Still Lose Money?

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

So I am finding this all a bit of a rollercoaster of emotions tbh.

As we speak I am watching Liechenstein Under 21 v Slovakio Under 21. Slovakia were winning 2-0 but I could see that Liechenstein were coming back into it so I put 10p on both teams to score at 6.2. About 5 minutes later Liechenstein scored so I made a great profit margin even if it was just 52p. Its more the point that I was so confident they would score and 6.2 seemed incredibly high. I would put it more at 2.

However, I have had these inclinations when I have been watching matches live to trade. For example I knew on Sunday Juventus would score after conceded and I knew this morning a Japanese team would score. It's as if I am sat here predicting the future but not totally sure how to profit from it.

Anyone else experienced this?

[ShaunWhite]

For example I knew on Sunday Juventus would score after conceded and I knew this morning a Japanese team would score. It's as if I am sat here predicting the future but not totally sure how to profit from it.

Even a savant can't defy the laws of physics. You can't predict the future 100% of the time and you're deluded if you even think you can.

I said there's no 100% but I'm 100% confident that you didn't "know" Juve would score, you thought they would and it just happened that they did. So what?

[JustLukeYou]

For example I knew on Sunday Juventus would score after conceded and I knew this morning a Japanese team would score. It's as if I am sat here predicting the future but not totally sure how to profit from it.

Even a savant can't defy the laws of physics. You can't predict the future 100% of the time and you're deluded if you even think you can.

I said there's no 100% but I'm 100% confident that you didn't "know" Juve would score, you thought they would and it just happened that they did. So what?

So I'm watching this match now and it was 3-2. The odds for over 5 goals went over 2 which surprised me as I was convinced another goal would be scored. So I backed 5+ goals and that has just won. But on both occassions I was going against that the market was saying. The market was saying Leichenstein wouldn't score and that it would finish 3-2 but I knew differently.

This sort of experience is completely new to me. It seems to help not focusing on the Premier League. The Premier League is so fast paced it makes it very hard to predict but poorer standard football seems easier. Almost easy at times.

[northbound]

From my experience, before coming to any conclusion about your "super powers", it's advisable to trade 300-500 markets over 2+ months.

Football in particular has a knack for making you believe you cracked it, when it fact most of the time you were just having a lucky streak of results.

[jamesg46]

For example I knew on Sunday Juventus would score after conceded and I knew this morning a Japanese team would score. It's as if I am sat here predicting the future but not totally sure how to profit from it.

Even a savant can't defy the laws of physics. You can't predict the future 100% of the time and you're deluded if you even think you can.

I said there's no 100% but I'm 100% confident that you didn't "know" Juve would score, you thought they would and it just happened that they did. So what?

So I'm watching this match now and it was 3-2. The odds for over 5 goals went over 2 which surprised me as I was convinced another goal would be scored. So I backed 5+ goals and that has just won. But on both occassions I was going against that the market was saying. The market was saying Leichenstein wouldn't score and that it would finish 3-2 but I knew differently.

This sort of experience is completely new to me. It seems to help not focusing on the Premier League. The Premier League is so fast paced it makes it very hard to predict but poorer standard football seems easier. Almost easy at times.

This is one heck of game & while I'm happy for you that you made a healthy margin of profit I have to say, you're putting yourself in grave danger of losing your bank by thinking you can predict the future... we all from time to time make predictions that come true but in the long term I dont believe i know of one person (I'd love to know them if there is such person) I have to admire the effort you're putting in to it, but as you have stated, you're getting a little emotional & that can also have a negative Impact on your bank... some of these guys have been around the block multiple times both forwards and in reverse, I've already seen some very solid advice given to you, I hope you realise it before it ends in tears. All the best though

[JustLukeYou]

Even a savant can't defy the laws of physics. You can't predict the future 100% of the time and you're deluded if you even think you can.

I said there's no 100% but I'm 100% confident that you didn't "know" Juve would score, you thought they would and it just happened that they did. So what?

So I'm watching this match now and it was 3-2. The odds for over 5 goals went over 2 which surprised me as I was convinced another goal would be scored. So I backed 5+ goals and that has just won. But on both occassions I was going against that the market was saying. The market was saying Leichenstein wouldn't score and that it would finish 3-2 but I knew differently.

This sort of experience is completely new to me. It seems to help not focusing on the Premier League. The Premier League is so fast paced it makes it very hard to predict but poorer standard football seems easier. Almost easy at times.

This is one heck of game & while I'm happy for you that you made a healthy margin of profit I have to say, you're putting yourself in grave danger of losing your bank by thinking you can predict the future... we all from time to time make predictions that come true but in the long term I dont believe i know of one person (I'd love to know them if there is such person) I have to admire the effort you're putting in to it, but as you have stated, you're getting a little emotional & that can also have a negative Impact on your bank... some of these guys have been around the block multiple times both forwards and in reverse, I've already seen some very solid advice given to you, I hope you realise it before it ends in tears. All the best though

Hi,

At the moment I don't really have a bank. I am just testing with small amounts of money. Around £2 each day. I think I am really pleased to see how much watching the live match helps. Before it felt like I was just guessing but by watching the match everything is much clearer.

[jamesg46]

So I'm watching this match now and it was 3-2. The odds for over 5 goals went over 2 which surprised me as I was convinced another goal would be scored. So I backed 5+ goals and that has just won. But on both occassions I was going against that the market was saying. The market was saying Leichenstein wouldn't score and that it would finish 3-2 but I knew differently.

This sort of experience is completely new to me. It seems to help not focusing on the Premier League. The Premier League is so fast paced it makes it very hard to predict but poorer standard football seems easier. Almost easy at times.

This is one heck of game & while I'm happy for you that you made a healthy margin of profit I have to say, you're putting yourself in grave danger of losing your bank by thinking you can predict the future... we all from time to time make predictions that come true but in the long term I dont believe i know of one person (I'd love to know them if there is such person) I have to admire the effort you're putting in to it, but as you have stated, you're getting a little emotional & that can also have a negative Impact on your bank... some of these guys have been around the block multiple times both forwards and in reverse, I've already seen some very solid advice given to you, I hope you realise it before it ends in tears. All the best though

Hi,

At the moment I don't really have a bank. I am just testing with small amounts of money. Around £2 each day. I think I am really pleased to see how much watching the live match helps. Before it felt like I was just guessing but by watching the match everything is much clearer.

I agree with that 1000% but being able to predict as a strategy is a game your mind is playing imo.

Here is an example using myself, in this years Betangel Super6 league I'm currently sat in 1st position, this was achieved through short term predictions, I simply got lucky, now most of the top half of that league is very compact in points gained, this is because they're playing the longer game... I am under no illusion & realise time isn't on my side.. it wont be long before I slip away out of sight... my best bet was to try and get them to change tactics by goading but they're all that solid in their structure that they didn't budge, they didnt do this because they know what I know, I'm doomed to short term success. You have to play the game in a bigger picture... one game is a pixel in that picture.

[MemphisFlash]

can you tell me this weeks lottery numbers?

[Derek27]

So I am finding this all a bit of a rollercoaster of emotions tbh.

I've built a reputation for being a 24/7, round the clock trader, but even I had a gradual introduction to trading. I've heard of people undertaking intensive all-day driving courses instead of the usual one-hour driving lesson, which probably suits some people, but I don't think that's the way to go with trading. Many traders have taken months or even over a year before becoming profitable or building confidence. You need time to learn, gain experience, and make big mistakes, which you ultimately learn from.

For example I knew on Sunday Juventus would score after conceded and I knew this morning a Japanese team would score. It's as if I am sat here predicting the future but not totally sure how to profit from it.

If you genuinely knew that Juventus would score you would have transferred your entire bank balance to your Betfair account and backed them. The fact that you didn't do that suggests that you only actually knew they would score after they scored!

[jamesg46]

can you tell me this weeks lottery numbers?

You should of asked this 2 days ago.

[JustLukeYou]

So I am finding this all a bit of a rollercoaster of emotions tbh.

I've built a reputation for being a 24/7, round the clock trader, but even I had a gradual introduction to trading. I've heard of people undertaking intensive all-day driving courses instead of the usual one-hour driving lesson, which probably suits some people, but I don't think that's the way to go with trading. Many traders have taken months or even over a year before becoming profitable or building confidence. You need time to learn, gain experience, and make big mistakes, which you ultimately learn from.

For example I knew on Sunday Juventus would score after conceded and I knew this morning a Japanese team would score. It's as if I am sat here predicting the future but not totally sure how to profit from it.

If you genuinely knew that Juventus would score you would have transferred your entire bank balance to your Betfair account and backed them. The fact that you didn't do that suggests that you only actually knew they would score after they scored!

I knew they were going to score but it would be silly to bet more than you can afford. If I won £1 or £10 that doesn't really matter. It's far more important that I recognise a chance to make a profit and it worked.

Made a profit on tonights televised game on Bet365. Dutched the correct scores but still traded in early by mistake. Made 35% profit but should have made 60%. Forget that I backed it twice.

I was sure that when Stockport went 2-0 up the game would clam up and it did.

[Derek27]

I think we've got out wires crossed on the definition of 'know'.

To 'know' something means you are correctly aware of it as an actual fact - something like 1+1=2 - something you can be 100% certain off and cannot possibly be wrong.

If you know something's going to happen it's stupid betting £1 or £10, you need to bet your life savings regardless of what you can afford to lose, because you know you cannot lose!!

Obviously you didn't know it was going to happen, you just thought it was going to happen.

[Kai]

As we speak I am watching Liechenstein Under 21 v Slovakio Under 21. Slovakia were winning 2-0 but I could see that Liechenstein were coming back into it so I put 10p on both teams to score at 6.2. About 5 minutes later Liechenstein scored so I made a great profit margin even if it was just 52p. Its more the point that I was so confident they would score and 6.2 seemed incredibly high. I would put it more at 2.

However, I have had these inclinations when I have been watching matches live to trade. For example I knew on Sunday Juventus would score after conceded and I knew this morning a Japanese team would score.

So I'm watching this match now and it was 3-2. The odds for over 5 goals went over 2 which surprised me as I was convinced another goal would be scored. So I backed 5+ goals and that has just won. But on both occassions I was going against that the market was saying. The market was saying Leichenstein wouldn't score and that it would finish 3-2 but I knew differently.

Are you really trying to learn something by looking for genuine feedback, or are you instead trying to impress and are just looking for some encouragement? Because it would take a lot more than pennies to impress the full timers on this forum. It's a process that will take time. If you haven't absorbed much after watching all of Peter's videos or absorbed any of the feedback that people gave you so far, then you're probably not yet ready and you need time for the dust to settle in your head. You've said that it's been an emotional roller coaster ride for you so far, despite playing around with very low stakes, but the real ride hasn't even begun yet if you ask me, so you might want to brace yourself.

Anyone else experienced this?

If you were hoping to hear someone say "nope, you must be the special one" then I'm sorry to disappoint. I think nearly everyone experiences this one way or another. Like Northbound mentioned earlier, I also think there's a clear pattern with so many armchair experts thinking they understand football inside and out to such a high level that they can automatically profit from trading it, without actually knowing anything about the markets themselves and trading in general. I too had similar delusions before I even started trading, I tried betting on football because I've watched football my whole life and won more trophies than Fergie/Pep/Mourinho combined in Football Manager since 2005. Needless to say, despite a great start I was a naive fool

To answer your thread question I would say "no chance, only in the short term". But you probably wanted to ask "Could I Be A Football Savant But Still Lose Money?" and the answer to that would be an emphatic yes.

[JustLukeYou]

As we speak I am watching Liechenstein Under 21 v Slovakio Under 21. Slovakia were winning 2-0 but I could see that Liechenstein were coming back into it so I put 10p on both teams to score at 6.2. About 5 minutes later Liechenstein scored so I made a great profit margin even if it was just 52p. Its more the point that I was so confident they would score and 6.2 seemed incredibly high. I would put it more at 2.

However, I have had these inclinations when I have been watching matches live to trade. For example I knew on Sunday Juventus would score after conceded and I knew this morning a Japanese team would score.

So I'm watching this match now and it was 3-2. The odds for over 5 goals went over 2 which surprised me as I was convinced another goal would be scored. So I backed 5+ goals and that has just won. But on both occassions I was going against that the market was saying. The market was saying Leichenstein wouldn't score and that it would finish 3-2 but I knew differently.

Are you really trying to learn something by looking for genuine feedback, or are you instead trying to impress and are just looking for some encouragement? Because it would take a lot more than pennies to impress the full timers on this forum. It's a process that will take time. If you haven't absorbed much after watching all of Peter's videos or absorbed any of the feedback that people gave you so far, then you're probably not yet ready and you need time for the dust to settle in your head. You've said that it's been an emotional roller coaster ride for you so far, despite playing around with very low stakes, but the real ride hasn't even begun yet if you ask me, so you might want to brace yourself.

Anyone else experienced this?

If you were hoping to hear someone say "nope, you must be the special one" then I'm sorry to disappoint. I think nearly everyone experiences this one way or another. Like Northbound mentioned earlier, I also think there's a clear pattern with so many armchair experts thinking they understand football inside and out to such a high level that they can automatically profit from trading it, without actually knowing anything about the markets themselves and trading in general. I too had similar delusions before I even started trading, I tried betting on football because I've watched football my whole life and won more trophies than Fergie/Pep/Mourinho combined in Football Manager since 2005. Needless to say, despite a great start I was a naive fool

To answer your thread question I would say "no chance, only in the short term". But you probably wanted to ask "Could I Be A Football Savant But Still Lose Money?" and the answer to that would be an emphatic yes.

Thanks.


Probably looking for encouragement and it's exciting. Feel I have taken a strong step forwards. I've never felt so certain I would make a profit.

I have tried betting the past just with small amount of money but I was just hoping to make a profit. This time I was certain. Doing research before the match starts and watching the match live makes a massive difference.

It feels like putting a very large jigsaw together. The more information I have the more jigsaw pieces I have.

For example, I think I will avoid trading top league football matches because they are so fast. When I watched lower level football matches it seemed much easier to read the game. Lots of tips like that is that I am looking for.

[JTEDL]

Heard of 'Psychoff'? Might be some inspiration for you.

Likes to watch games and lays CS or unders for huge amounts if he sees a goal / goals coming. Posts on this forum and twitter occasionally. He did used to post tips on twitter/discord, but whenever they lost he got loads of grief so knocked it on the head.