I have math related question I guess and I hope some of you might help me out with this
All of this is just a theoretical example I can't get my head around. I will try to explain it as clearly as I possibly can since my english i pretty poor
Lets say that data from 1000 matches suggests that at the beginning of match each player has 50% chance of winnning, since one player has to win and other has to loose. Therefore we get 1000 winners and 1000 loosers.
Now let's assume that data gathered from these matches 80% are won by the player who won first set.
So if a player wins first set his chance of winning tennis match goes up to 80%, if he loses first set it goes down to 20%.
This all seems simple to me if both players has same chance of winning at the beginning of the match. This corresponds to fair odds of 2 for each player. After first set the winner should have fair odds of 1.25 (80 % chance), and the looser should have fair odds of 5 (20% chance).
But how to calculate odds after first set if at the beginning of the match players have odds of 1.43 (70% chance) and 3.33 (30% chance) for example?
How should the odds for these players change after first set if they win/loose?
Hopefully this is well enough explained for someone to understand what I meant.
Thanks in advance guys!
