Maria's Laying system
lower steaks [sic] may find you getting the CHOP from betfair!! (aweful pun). Quick pointer on making your question more useful for repondents
1. give either a link or full detail as to what the question techicalities are (Maria LAYING in this instance)
2. When asking about a request for bot creation, give a detailed list of parameters required (not everyone is going to watch the whole video)
3. Add some commentary as to what your experiences have been when trying it manually - consistancies/problems etc
4. Don't cross post - that's universal
Anyway, hope someome CHIPS in..
Lol, ya wee BURGER. I PATE you on the FLANK for those RAWHIDE observations.
Yes sirree, ya layin is ya slayin'..
Jeez, wtf is possessing me
The Maria Staking Plan is so called after a username on a forum thread that turned £3000 into £100,000 in only 303 days in real-time. In total there were 3547 wins from 4131 selections which meant a 85.88% strike rate. Like all staking plans which are essentially mathematical formulas, The Maria staking plan can be broken down into simple rules.
Rule 1 - Lay Different Amounts Depending on the Odds.
Less Than or Equal to 3.5 1%
Greater Than Or Equal to 3.6 but Less Than or Equal to 7.4 0.6%
Greater Than or Equal to 7.5 but Less Than or Equal to 11 0.4%
Greater Than 11 0%
The following example is based on a starting bank of £3000.
You can see in Bet 1 the odds are 8. The Stake is 0.4% of £3000 which is £12.
You can see in Bet 2 the odds are 4. The Stake is 0.6% of £3000 which is £18.
You can see in Bet 3 the odds are 2.5. The Stake is 1% of £3000 which is £30.
You can see in Bet 4 the odds are 12. The Stake is 0% of £3000 which is £0.
All you need is a bot that matches your lays at prices that
were never available.
It is odd how these things slip into folklore.
There isn't much logic with this as a staking 'system', because to be profitable when betting it's all about value. I've no idea how a lot of these things get popularised. From that point on they seem to just live forever and morph into variants. If you just lay stuff with a staking system, you simply can't expect to make money long term. But of course it's the selections that make the difference. if you can find value, then you will make money over time (less commission).
There isn't a lot of logic in the way the staking is presented I would have thought?. If you lay you would either lay to a target or to liability so that any skill in selection would be reflected over time? That's what I do. Maybe I'm wrong but it seems to have worked really well for me and allows me to scale my stake.
At 86% strike rate you would invert to 14% and 1/.14 = roughly odds of 7.00. So it should be possible to see just what edge Maria has with her selections.
From what I can make out there was a slight edge and that's what delivered the return. But I understand she eventually tried again and failed.
I've run a successful laying 'system' since 2011 when I started doing it to mitigate PC. It eventually morphed into a value based process based on my increased knowledge of racing.
There isn't much logic with this as a staking 'system', because to be profitable when betting it's all about value. I've no idea how a lot of these things get popularised. From that point on they seem to just live forever and morph into variants. If you just lay stuff with a staking system, you simply can't expect to make money long term. But of course it's the selections that make the difference. if you can find value, then you will make money over time (less commission).
There isn't a lot of logic in the way the staking is presented I would have thought?. If you lay you would either lay to a target or to liability so that any skill in selection would be reflected over time? That's what I do. Maybe I'm wrong but it seems to have worked really well for me and allows me to scale my stake.
At 86% strike rate you would invert to 14% and 1/.14 = roughly odds of 7.00. So it should be possible to see just what edge Maria has with her selections.
From what I can make out there was a slight edge and that's what delivered the return. But I understand she eventually tried again and failed.
I've run a successful laying 'system' since 2011 when I started doing it to mitigate PC. It eventually morphed into a value based process based on my increased knowledge of racing.
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3559
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Her theory behind it was to compound winnings and only ever risk a max of 3% (usually less) with the different fixed stake settings.
The thread itself was legendary as she posted the selections upfront and updated the results on a daily basis. Not 100% convinced she got all the bets on later on down the line, but it was still a good exercise on how compounding can win the day.
It is possible (although no-one knows) she used the Adrian Massey ratings to find the Lay selections. Although the ratings are no longer around, there are plenty of other ratings that do exist. It's just a question of framing them in a similar way (odds wise) and away you go.
The thread itself was legendary as she posted the selections upfront and updated the results on a daily basis. Not 100% convinced she got all the bets on later on down the line, but it was still a good exercise on how compounding can win the day.
It is possible (although no-one knows) she used the Adrian Massey ratings to find the Lay selections. Although the ratings are no longer around, there are plenty of other ratings that do exist. It's just a question of framing them in a similar way (odds wise) and away you go.
I learned a lot from 'Maria' on AM forum, she always gave very detailed responses to queries on the forum and was all about value. In the great lay experiment though she certainly had some losses at the beginning that would have made me give up, and at the end the stakes were so huge I wondered if they could be matched. You could automate the ratchet staking plan but her system was a secret she never divulged because apparently she was a layer in real life. I say apparently because he/she only referred to it never gave details.
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3559
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
The staking plan was to reset if it dropped to a drawdown of 35%. As you say, this happened and she recovered to finally achieve her target of £100,000 from an intial bank of £3,000.Bintin wrote: ↑Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:35 amI learned a lot from 'Maria' on AM forum, she always gave very detailed responses to queries on the forum and was all about value. In the great lay experiment though she certainly had some losses at the beginning that would have made me give up, and at the end the stakes were so huge I wondered if they could be matched. You could automate the ratchet staking plan but her system was a secret she never divulged because apparently she was a layer in real life. I say apparently because he/she only referred to it never gave details.
I also learned a great deal from the thread. Mainly discipline, focus, belief and perseverance.
My approach would be more on the lines of £3,000 to £30,000. (achievable within 3-4 months). Then £4,000 to £40,000...etc At the end of the year, have a break, then start over.
I'm currently using some speed ratings for flat and jumps that identify a short list of potential winners, I can easily convert that into potential Lays.
There are so many horses that the connections put into races that have no hope of winning, either in the class, distance, going or all 3. Many are within the Maria Staking Plan price range....Hmmm now you got me thinking....