Maria's Laying system
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smarttraderr
- Posts: 74
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:38 am
Steve I can help you but Maria's System is about laying at certain odds at certain price but bot need bit more logic then that, especially which horse to lay and at what odds. if you still looking for this then let me know what your ideas are and I can make a bot or servant for you.
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mickypaul72
- Posts: 116
- Joined: Tue May 15, 2018 1:52 pm
Nice one Smarttraderr can you post me a bot any will do as long as it wins.
See the topic here for a full discussion: -
viewtopic.php?f=37&t=19761
'Maria' never revealed any form of selection process, so just implementing a staking system is very unlikely to yield any long term results.
Even looking at her selections, they more or less matched the implied probability by the look of it.
viewtopic.php?f=37&t=19761
'Maria' never revealed any form of selection process, so just implementing a staking system is very unlikely to yield any long term results.
Even looking at her selections, they more or less matched the implied probability by the look of it.
As many have posted, you need a robust selection system otherwise no matter how you stake your bank will diminish. It does however look to have some merits in that the bank does grow or shrink commensurate with your results and the likelyhood of busting the bank on day 1 seem to be small.
It`s also not limited to Lay betting as a mechanism to staking.
Have been testing 3 strategies where the results from yesterday are collected in a Pivot the day after, then pasted into 1 x Lay and 2 x Back "Marias"
The odds and distribution of %`s of bank are fixed and not limited to the original Maria concept. There is no picking out runners by anything other than the Pivot criteria and if anyone is interested can post the details. Obviously using BSP and assuming it would be matched IP at the BSP odds.
This is the Lay one that just uses specific individual odds.
Has 4 win days and 2 loss days. Max of Bank and Min of Bank show the highs and lows.
This is a Back one that just uses specific Rank (BSP)
Been running longer and only just in profit. The Pivot that underwrites this has been running since Feb this year and is volatile with massive losses and massive wins although in profit.
This is a Back one and went on today. Odds based, it`s the ones that are (at this moment in time) winning more than the probability would be (like 2.0 odds winning 52% instead of 50% type thing)
With the SV feature in BA you can specify the exact BSP, some win/lose more than others which is the starting point to find a blend that work together as part of the selection process. Not there yet here....
It`s also not limited to Lay betting as a mechanism to staking.
Have been testing 3 strategies where the results from yesterday are collected in a Pivot the day after, then pasted into 1 x Lay and 2 x Back "Marias"
The odds and distribution of %`s of bank are fixed and not limited to the original Maria concept. There is no picking out runners by anything other than the Pivot criteria and if anyone is interested can post the details. Obviously using BSP and assuming it would be matched IP at the BSP odds.
This is the Lay one that just uses specific individual odds.
Has 4 win days and 2 loss days. Max of Bank and Min of Bank show the highs and lows.
This is a Back one that just uses specific Rank (BSP)
Been running longer and only just in profit. The Pivot that underwrites this has been running since Feb this year and is volatile with massive losses and massive wins although in profit.
This is a Back one and went on today. Odds based, it`s the ones that are (at this moment in time) winning more than the probability would be (like 2.0 odds winning 52% instead of 50% type thing)
With the SV feature in BA you can specify the exact BSP, some win/lose more than others which is the starting point to find a blend that work together as part of the selection process. Not there yet here....
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That seems counterintuitive.
I'd assumed that she'd just been good at picking lays - but used a criticized staking system.
But if it turns out her selections won or lost in line with IP... I'm puzzled.
I'll do a full analysis on it at some point when I get the time. But the casual analysis I did on it showed the selections only just beat IP, but the staking system skewed the results. Repeated again it may go the other way which just a tiny % shift in the selections vs. IP.\
I've been running a laying system since 2011 and it's been heavily in profit. So it can be done, but it's selection based and only takes a position when it thinks it's value. Anyone month it will be 5-10% ahead of IP and that's what I measure and stake it against.
I've been running a laying system since 2011 and it's been heavily in profit. So it can be done, but it's selection based and only takes a position when it thinks it's value. Anyone month it will be 5-10% ahead of IP and that's what I measure and stake it against.
Do you run it on automation, Excel, API or manual?Euler wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2019 7:36 pmI've been running a laying system since 2011 and it's been heavily in profit. So it can be done, but it's selection based and only takes a position when it thinks it's value. Anyone month it will be 5-10% ahead of IP and that's what I measure and stake it against.