Telegram Horse Racing Channel

[northbound]

I'd like to introduce a new Telegram channel dedicated to horse racing alerts.
https://t.me/stupidgoal_alerts_horses

FAV GETTING BEATEN
Currently there's only one alert type that triggers when a fav (SP < 2.50) is about to lose its race, meaning in-play Betfair Best Back odds > 100. The alert also shows odds for upcoming races' favs, the idea being that if the next race has a short priced fav, it might attract backing activity.

BETFAIR APPROVAL
I spoke to Neil at Betfair, he approved this specific alert type on the basis that I don't charge a fee.

FUTURE ALERTS
The idea is to implement more alerts (going changes, hot jockeys, etc). In most cases data will not come from Betfair but when it does, I'll ask them to approve it first.

[northbound]

Here's an alert example from today, delivered as soon as this fav's Best Back odds inplay touched 99/1.

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[spreadbetting]

Was there any change to the next favourites odds?

[northbound]

Was there any change to the next favourites odds?

If I understand your question correctly, you're asking whether was there any backing activity on the next race's fav.

I didn't monitor that one because was out of the house at the time. From experience, a fair amount of these "next race favs" get some backing activity. Some shorten considerably, some drift, some shorten a bit then drift.

[jamesg46]

Nice work again Northbound!

Two favs beaten at Nott & two at Taunton. Look forward to the future updates 'hot jockey' etc... I'm gonna use this as a tool to recognise specific track behaviour if and when patterns do or dont occur. Thanks again.

[northbound]

Nice work again Northbound!

Cheers James

[jamesedwards]

Will be following this with interest.

[northbound]

I've now added GOING CHANGE alerts to the channel. Data for this doesn't come from Betfair.

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[Euler]

Odds on favourite beaten would be an interesting one. As well as if there was a jockey or trainer winning consecutive races at the same course.

[northbound]

I'm in two minds about the BSP filter on favourites and tend to agree with you about only alerting when losing fav's BSP < 2.00.

The counter argument is that by alerting based on BSP < 2.50 can be useful on those days where many favs in a row lose races.

With regards to jockeys, I have something ready to go that notifies as soon as a jockey wins 2 races on the day, usually at the same venue. I'll see if I can tweak it to only trigger when wins are on consecutive races.

[Euler]

There may be a case for both as it could be they were beaten by a nose in one race, but came close. I guess that's the difficulty with trying to quantifying ambiguity.

[northbound]

Here's more ambiguity.

If fav gets beaten by a nose it's likely that my alert will never trigger because its in-play Best Back odds never touched 100.

Conversely, it can also happen, like today with a horse called Royal Thief, that its Best Back odds reach 100, my alert triggers, then the horse wins anyway.

I thought about triggering alerts when Betfair closes the market and the API tells me the winning horse but, from experience, by that time any move on the next race's fav is well under way.

[sa7med]

Here's more ambiguity.

If fav gets beaten by a nose it's likely that my alert will never trigger because its in-play Best Back odds never touched 100.

Conversely, it can also happen, like today with a horse called Royal Thief, that its Best Back odds reach 100, my alert triggers, then the horse wins anyway.

I thought about triggering alerts when Betfair closes the market and the API tells me the winning horse but, from experience, by that time any move on the next race's fav is well under way.

Why not find last horse to hit 1.01?

[Euler]

That's what I do on my inplay bot to collect data and confirm results. It sometimes gets it wrong, but generally gets it right.

[jamesg46]

Doesn't that mean that the alert of report you get back isn't necessarily the pre off favourite?