Huge price difference between on course and betfair
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JollyGreen
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You need to remember that the market on course is run by bookmakers who have certain liabilities and that they construct their book differently to Betfair layers. The bookies may have another bad loser in the race which means they are stuck if that horse or the favourite wins. The layer on Betfair probably just plays the one horse.
Also, it just comes down to supply and demand. If the on course bookies can lay the favourite at 5/4 to people who are willing to back it then they will. There's no point in risking money by offering 11/8 or 6/4 for example if you can get the money in the satchel at 5/4. That's why you can see a horse drifting like mad on Betfair but holding still on course.
Also, it just comes down to supply and demand. If the on course bookies can lay the favourite at 5/4 to people who are willing to back it then they will. There's no point in risking money by offering 11/8 or 6/4 for example if you can get the money in the satchel at 5/4. That's why you can see a horse drifting like mad on Betfair but holding still on course.
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Irish Rover
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Another one yesterday.
N. Abbot 2.15 Maggie Aron
BSP 2.89 (and it was trading around that price just before the off)
ISP 1.91
Huge difference.
N. Abbot 2.15 Maggie Aron
BSP 2.89 (and it was trading around that price just before the off)
ISP 1.91
Huge difference.
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andyfuller
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Another thing to bear in mind is that the bookmakers could have liabilities rolling up due to multiples etc at the moment I bet a lot of people are doing Paul Hanagan's mounts as he is riding a lot of winners so if you see say 3 of his mounts go in the next is likely to be made a lot shorter oncourse by the bookies so as to limit their liabilities.
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JollyGreen
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Similar thought but not really the same thing. If a horse is being backed because of shop liabilities and/or multiple bets then it will also shorten on Betfair. There will be a way for bookmakers to get money onto Betfair and the result will be a shortening price on both systems.andyfuller wrote:Another thing to bear in mind is that the bookmakers could have liabilities rolling up due to multiples etc at the moment I bet a lot of people are doing Paul Hanagan's mounts as he is riding a lot of winners so if you see say 3 of his mounts go in the next is likely to be made a lot shorter oncourse by the bookies so as to limit their liabilities.
The race at Newton Abbot was the first race of the day so there could be no liabilities. The difference is quite simple, if a bookmaker can buy money at 1.90 rather than 2.90 then he will do it until the cows, or in this case, the horses, come home. If nobody is stepping forward to back a horse then they may offer a better price but it would appear that everybody was stepping forward in this case.
The bookies are generally more organised with their prices whereas the lemming effect can occur on Betfair. If players see a price drifting they will invariably jump on the bandwagon and offer better prices in order to get their lay order filled. This has a double whammy effect because punters upon seeing a drift will lose confidence and not back the horse which accentuates the drift.
If you are a serious punter and bet on form, then seeing a price move out is not always a bad thing. In fact most serious punters will have more on at bigger prices. A race I remember well was when State of Play won the Hennessey at Newbury in 2006. I appreciate it was almost 4 years ago but because it was such a high profile race it sticks in my mind. This horse was strongly fancied and on known form had an outstanding chance. Just about everything was spot on for the horse but despite this it drifted out on Betfair to almost double the bookies odds!
It also drifted with the bookies too but not so far. It won easily in the end.Bookies will be a bit more cautious about offering money at silly prices as they have limited opportunities to get out in play whereas the on-line layer can just concentrate on that horse and cut out if it looks bad for them. If "mug punters" keep taking 1.90 then bookies will keep obliging them. Wouldn't it be great if we could get people to accept our offer at 1.90 when it's out at 2.90!!
In the original example Yastrid didnt drift at all, it never went below 3.0 and the vast majority of the cash traded on it in a tight band between 3.0 and 3.2. It would be interesting to see how often this occurs and which price is actually closer to the 'true' odds. As we saw last week (in the farcical thread) where the guy(s) who likes to control prices in a tight band with loads of cash held the price of a horse at 3s when it was sweating considerably, betfair prices can be manipulated and / or held for other reasons
HiPeterLe wrote:So....in theory; If you were on course with a notebook (Ipad running RDC?) and a 3g broadband...you could potentially make a few bob! ?
..Anybody done that??
regards
Peter
Just to extend this idea...
Do bookmakers have Wifi in their shops? Would it be frowned upon if you were to take your ipad in there??
(Even if you placed the odd bet with them during your visit??)
Thanks
Peter
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JollyGreen
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They wouldn't be keen!
You could liken it to walking into the local café, opening up your picnic lunch for the family but buying a cup of tea from the café!
You could liken it to walking into the local café, opening up your picnic lunch for the family but buying a cup of tea from the café!
What's wrong with that! Ha ha!!JollyGreen wrote:They wouldn't be keen!
You could liken it to walking into the local café, opening up your picnic lunch for the family but buying a cup of tea from the café!
...you could just say you were sending a text!
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JollyGreen
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.......a few thousand times!!PeterLe wrote: What's wrong with that! Ha ha!!
...you could just say you were sending a text!
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JollyGreen
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The commentator will say it is being well backed but he would not have a true view of the betting in the ring.
The presenter said he had just walked past the betting ring on his way to give one of ATRs remarkably in depth 30 second previews and said that they were falling over each other to back it. Almost felt like putting all my profit on it but then again someone on here could always know something, horse did loseJollyGreen wrote:The commentator will say it is being well backed but he would not have a true view of the betting in the ring.