Hi, in soccer mystic, we are provided with these lovely graphs showing how the odds will decay on, say, the under 2.5 market. I would like to do something similar in Excel for an idea that I have with automated/triggered betting, but would like to know what algorithm is used create these.
Any help would be greatly appreciated.
Game odds decay algorithm
Thanks but that's not what I'm looking for. I already use Poisson to calculate the correct scores and match odds, but I don't see how this will tell me what the odds should be at 55 minutes when a goal has just been scored.
There must be an algorithm that Soccer Mystic uses (non-Poisson), and it's this I would be please to get my hands on.
Thanks for responding though. Much appreciated!
There must be an algorithm that Soccer Mystic uses (non-Poisson), and it's this I would be please to get my hands on.
Thanks for responding though. Much appreciated!
-
spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
I've been looking for what maths is used to calculate the total goals decay rate too. Must be some maths formula you can use to map the goal expectation over time. From there it's pretty much just a case of using Poisson and Skellam statistics to predict the odds/spreads much the same as the spread firms do.