Am I missing out on "Easy" money with my match selections?

[Alexander_99]

So for the last few months, I've been backing 2 more goals to be scored in a match, entering the market typically between 40 and 50 min mark, if I watched the game and thought there's some value in the odds. So if the score is 1-0, I'd back over 2.5 goals.

Recently I started recording my bets in a spreadsheet. Out of 48 bets, I won 26, with average odds of 2.10. So I have a slight edge so far in this small sample.

However, I am not happy about one thing. Essentially, I tend to avoid watching and betting on "overs" in matches where top teams are involved, such as Juventus and Real Madrid, since then overs odds tend to be low. Looked at odds for over 2 goals in such matches, they tend to be around 1.90 at most at half time (and frequently between 1.70 - 1.85). I don't know how to gauge such odds accurately - whether they represent any value or not for a given match. I mean, I can watch the game and see a team attacking, but when the price is quite a bit below 2.00, I don't understand what's value and what isn't... I seem to find it easier to spot opportunities when say given odds are well above 2.00, and judging by the way the match is going, I think to myself "no way, the odds should be much lower". Therefore, I tend to focus on slightly smaller teams and also lower leagues such as Spanish Segunda and Italian Serie B, where goal expectancy is lower.

The thing is, teams such as Juventus to tend to score heavily, especially in 2nd half. Look at Porto last night, they scored 5 past Moreirense in the 2nd half, and the odds for 2 more goals were around 1.85 at half time if I remember correctly... We all know that Porto are leaders and are expected to keep scoring. But watching such games, it's hard for me to judge whether 1.85 are good odds to take...

So am I missing out on "easy" money by not betting on overs in these perceived high-scoring games? How to understand when odds below 2.00 represent value or not?

[convoysur-2]

Automate it inplay,
lay unders at different price points or back so for example if no goal after 12 mins the price is much better maybe that the value you need .

[Kafkaesque]

Definitely wouldn't be calling it easy money. The thing with these top, top teams is that they've typically got 10 outfield players, who are great passers. Sometimes the keeper as well. Which means they can, if and when they opt to, play within themselves. Pass the match to death.

It's always the case, even with tighter matches, that these things should be in the back of one's mind if taking a price on 2 more goals, but even more so with big favs. How much does a specific team/manager typically continue to go for further goals if they're 1-0 and especially 2-0 up? Do they have (more) important matches coming up which would make them want to see it out with no fuss (and possibly sub off top attackers)? How much does the dog push if they go 1-0 or 2-0 down? Will they simply continue to sit back?

[Alexander_99]

Definitely wouldn't be calling it easy money. The thing with these top, top teams is that they've typically got 10 outfield players, who are great passers. Sometimes the keeper as well. Which means they can, if and when they opt to, play within themselves. Pass the match to death.

It's always the case, even with tighter matches, that these things should be in the back of one's mind if taking a price on 2 more goals, but even more so with big favs. How much does a specific team/manager typically continue to go for further goals if they're 1-0 and especially 2-0 up? Do they have (more) important matches coming up which would make them want to see it out with no fuss (and possibly sub off top attackers)? How much does the dog push if they go 1-0 or 2-0 down? Will they simply continue to sit back?

Thanks Kafkaesque, you bring up some important points.

Of course, I am watching the match so I wouldn't simply back over 2 goals in every game. Yesterday for example, it was Sassuolo 1- 2 Milan at half time, and over 2 goals were priced around 1.75. The game finished 1-2. I watched the 2nd half, and I realised that the intensity seemed to have dropped a lot, so I actually decided to back unders instead.

Is there a lower limit on odds on over 2 goals for you beyond which you never enter the market? So say if the price is below some point like 1.60 at half time, you'd never think about taking it?