Evening all!
Just been pondering my SP automations and the impact my stake level appears to be having on my return%. I assume that with an SP bet the larger your stake the less value the return, eg put up £1,000 back at SP on horse 1 and the SP return will be significantly lower than it would have been with a £10 back bet.
With usual back and lay bets it is fairly simple to estimate the impact your positions will be having on the market and price, but is there a way to reach a similar conclusion with SP bets?
Estimated impact of my SP bets?
I do a few things:
- Compare profit from SP vs the price at scheduled off time, from backtesting or placing with low stakes you can get a good idea of the difference in ROI or simply plotting the cumulative profit and comparing. You may find placing at scheduled off is more profitable and visa versa
- Record price before suspension and compare to the SP, you first need a base i.e. SP is normally x% above mid price before BSP settlement and then see if your stakes impact
- Try and calculate the potential liquidity based on what is on the ladder / SP orders and betfair provided estimate, don’t think this is really possible to any accuracy tbh
It really doesn’t take much to impact SP as I have found out a few times however assumption is that you are using some sort of Kelly or liability staking depending on the odds, as £1k at 20 is very different to the same at evens.
- Compare profit from SP vs the price at scheduled off time, from backtesting or placing with low stakes you can get a good idea of the difference in ROI or simply plotting the cumulative profit and comparing. You may find placing at scheduled off is more profitable and visa versa
- Record price before suspension and compare to the SP, you first need a base i.e. SP is normally x% above mid price before BSP settlement and then see if your stakes impact
- Try and calculate the potential liquidity based on what is on the ladder / SP orders and betfair provided estimate, don’t think this is really possible to any accuracy tbh
It really doesn’t take much to impact SP as I have found out a few times however assumption is that you are using some sort of Kelly or liability staking depending on the odds, as £1k at 20 is very different to the same at evens.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 4347
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Yeah, this one makes sense.LinusP wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:33 pm- Compare profit from SP vs the price at scheduled off time, from backtesting or placing with low stakes you can get a good idea of the difference in ROI or simply plotting the cumulative profit and comparing. You may find placing at scheduled off is more profitable and visa versa
It really doesn’t take much to impact SP as I have found out a few times however assumption is that you are using some sort of Kelly or liability staking depending on the odds, as £1k at 20 is very different to the same at evens.
I only used £1k as an extreme example
Thanks for the ideas.