Traded volume to estimate queue position

[sheffutd1889]

Hi all,

I am looking at trying to use estimated queue position in part of my automation file and have 2 questions:

Firstly, and most simple one, is there an option I am missing to populate a stored value with the estimated queue position of an order which I could then use to set some conditions around?

Secondly, as a work around to not being able to find an option to store the estimated queue position, I thought I could use traded volume (current, and at time of placement) compared with money available at a price when placing a bet to calculate when I should be getting matched. After running a test on the England v Denmark game where the price is very static, I came up with these figures which don't seem to add up to me:

I placed a lay bet and asked for 1.79 with £55k already traded at that price and £11k currently available... expecting that by the time traded volume at that price hit £66k at the latest I should start to get matched. I still wasn't matched by the time that volume hit £70k (annoyingly, the price then shifted so I wasn't able to find out exactly when my order started to get filled). I could understand if it started matching earlier due to some orders ahead of mine in the queue maybe being removed from the market but I can't figure out how I could be getting matched LATER. The only way this seems to be possible is if orders placed after mine were put ahead of me in the queue. Am I missing something here?

Thanks in advance for any replies.

Adam

[Dabbla]

You would need 22k to matched before your bets are touched. The way betfair calculate their matched bets is £1 lay plus £1 back =£2 matched

[eightbo]

don't forget to check for changes in the ££ at the price once your bet is in (cash at price + your stake).
if it reduces and volume stays the same your queue position just got better.

[sheffutd1889]

You would need 22k to matched before your bets are touched. The way betfair calculate their matched bets is £1 lay plus £1 back =£2 matched

Thanks for this. I thought that could have been the case but I discounted the idea as traded volume can be an odd value, and if every stake is doubled then that couldn't work... traded volume of £69337.37 would mean £34668.685 back + £34668.685 lay. My other idea was they could calculate it on liability... ie £1 matched at 1.79 is £1 back stake + 79p lay liability = £1.79 matched. Or is that just overcomplicating things and the odd values could be down to rounding errors or something?

[decomez6]

Have you taken crossmatching into account ?

What you see on the volume matched is not necessarily the true picture.

I personally don’t have strategies based on the que.
But I think it’s hard to get it right especially when all prices accross different exchanges and bookies tend to mirror each other. The arb hunting bots will take any opportunity to balance the books , and this will create a scenario where betfair will disregard your position in question if by matching your bet will make prices move in a less desirable direction.
The market will always take value wherever one exists and your placed bets are not necessarily more valuable just for being first in the que , as a matter of fact it could be counterproductive to fill your orders if the effect of doing so will make the books swing too much on one direction.what matters most is how well this is done and it will always take priority either through crossmatching or partially matching your bets thus achieving a predetermined desired outcome.

Just my opinion though

[sheffutd1889]

Have you taken crossmatching into account ?

What you see on the volume matched is not necessarily the true picture.

I personally don’t have strategies based on the que.
But I think it’s hard to get it right especially when all prices accross different exchanges and bookies tend to mirror each other. The arb hunting bots will take any opportunity to balance the books , and this will create a scenario where betfair will disregard your position in question if by matching your bet will make prices move in a less desirable direction.
The market will always take value wherever one exists and your placed bets are not necessarily more valuable just for being first in the que , as a matter of fact it could be counterproductive to fill your orders if the effect of doing so will make the books swing too much on one direction.what matters most is how well this is done and it will always take priority either through crossmatching or partially matching your bets thus achieving a predetermined desired outcome.

Just my opinion though

Very good point, no I hadn't, thank you.

I'm not looking for it to be exact, just wanting to provide the automation with a ball park figure so I can set some conditions around if it will cancel that attempt and try at a different price or stick with it beacause the chance of it getting matched is decent.

Thanks everyone for your replies.

[Dallas]

In the scenario you gave you said
£55k was already matched
and there was £11k waiting

Which means there would need to be atleast £77k

So by the time it got to £70k there was still a total of another £7k to be matched or £3.5k ahead of you in the queue on your side - so wouldn't expect to be seeing you get matched yet (assuming none had been pulled and without XM'ing)

[Euler]

Cross-matching really muddles up any estimate of exactly where you are in the queue.