Win and Place markets

[cyberrebyc]

Hi.
Sorry for my broken english.
Everybody knows that there is dependence between prices on Win and Place markets. So you can calculate Place market price from Win market price. Peter had video about it few years ago.

But sometimes Place market odds are not the same as you calculate. For example:
Win market, horse Fallen Hearts, odd 100(1% chance of win). Place Market, horse Fallen Hearts, price 10(10% chance of 1-2-3rd place). But your calculated price on place market is 20(5%). Once again - market price is 10 but fair price is 20. Here is a chance to get a profit out of it!

You can make Back bet on Win market and Lay Bet on Place market. You will have huge gain if horse wins. But huge loss if horse come 2nd or 3rd. I think this could be a profitable long-term strategy. But if this strategy is completely wrong, just say this.

Does anybody have idea how to equalize the winnings accross all outcomes? How to minimize losses ? Do I need to make additional Lay bet on Win market?

Thanks in advance.

[gazuty]

One observation. Horses are herd animals and in a herd there are leaders and followers. There are definitely horses that prefer to lead and win and others that prefer (because of herd hierarchy) to place (no matter what the jockey does to them).

See https://esc.rutgers.edu/fact_sheet/the- ... -behavior/ for further detail.

[ShaunWhite]

There's plenty of situations where a horse isn't ridden hard for a place if it isn't going to win.

To equalise your position (for a profit) you need to place a counter bet at a better price than your initial bet on the same market. Aka 'a trade'

[Shaung89]

Definitely agree with above comments that two horses with an equal chance of winning a race do not have an equal chance of placing.

There are plenty of examples in Greyhounds... Love nothing more than to chase hard to the front of the pack however when getting there they slow down to run with the leader. Example below where prices range from 3.25 to 9.0 and accross 11 races the dog wins once, places 8 times and finishes unplaced twice.

The distances of those 2nd places are 0.5, head, short head, short head, short head, 2.25 lengths and 1.75 lengths....

MossTurbo.png

[ShaunWhite]

Love nothing more than to chase hard to the front of the pack however when getting there they slow down to run with the leader.

They're not much more than puppies, beggers belief how/why anyone who's ever owned a dog takes dog racing seriously. I like the Aus dogs where they run 8 on a straight track, there's always 2 or 3 taking it seriously and the rest are buggering about nudging each other.

[cyberrebyc]

Thank you so much. Your answers are very helpful

I agree that Greyhound racing results are driven by animal instincts.

What are jockeys for? Probably, you need a jockey to remove the herd instincts from horse for a few minutes and try to win? Do you think that instincts still prevail?
Does anyone have horse rasing stats like this?

[Shaung89]

Thank you so much. Your answers are very helpful

I agree that Greyhound racing results are driven by animal instincts.

What are jockeys for? Probably, you need a jockey to remove the herd instincts from horse for a few minutes and try to win? Do you think that instincts still prevail?
Does anyone have horse rasing stats like this?

If you watch and listen to enough racing you will see/hear reference to a horse 'pulling itself up in front'. This is the same principle I believe. A jockey is there to decide when to exert the most energy and to keep the horse straight, what they cant control unfortunately is what goes on between the horses ears.