I was thinking back to last year when Ivory Lace hacked up over C&D off the same mark!!Actually my main reason for looking at this race is the Racing Post forecast price for Russian Rave...someone must be having a laugh
I'll put up the usual warning..I am NOT saying this horse will not win. I am saying it is unlikely and I am further adding that any price below 4.50 is crazy
This is a poor handicap and none of these horses fill you with confidence. When I look at a market, the first thing I ask myself is "can I get the favourite beaten?" Well in this race I reckon we have a good chance. The RP forecast of 2.75 is one that I would gladly lay but I am not sure I will get the opportunity as it will probably be between 3.0 and 3.50 on Betfair. That is still too skinny in my book and I'll try to explain why.
Initially this horse was one I had listed as "one to follow" but some things just don't add up and this has made me look at this race from the opposite side of the fence!
First I want to explain how I get frustrated when I watch connections making strange decisions when running their horses. They run them at the wrong trip on the wrong ground or the wrong way (right handed not left handed and vice versa), they hold them up when they had most success when front running and vice versa. They then say to the media that "they thought the new method was worth a try...etc etc!!"
Now don't get me wrong, there are also some very shrewd connections who know exactly what they are doing. They are in the minority though and sometimes I am astounded by what I see as basic errors.
So let's look at Russian Rave and see if we can spot a potential problem. This horse finally won a race after 8 attempts and that was on the AW at Kempton. It then ran 10 more races without ever looking like she would win again. She was usually ridden close to the pace and looked good 1f from home in a 7f race or 2f from home in a 8f race.....can you spot the clue here?I was screaming at the TV asking for divine intervention so that connections would wake up and smell the coffee
I could not understand why they persisted with this horse over 7/8f. I nearly had a heart attack when on her last run they dropped her back to 6f and booked Jamie Spencer 
She hacked up and looked like a filly in form that should follow up under a penalty or new mark.I duly added her to my notebook and was rather pleased when an e-mail arrived showing her entry for this race. I quickly checked the race conditions and could not believe my eyes when I saw it is a 7f race? Did I misread it...is it just me? So finally after 19 runs they appear to unlock the best from this filly and on run number 20 they put her back up in trip? To add to my dismay they have put a young 5lb claimer up!
So let me think this through again as if I am in charge of placing this horse. I'll list things to make it easy
- 1. No great success at 7f??
2.No great success at 8f??
3. J P Spencer handled her well...possibly needs pro on board???
4. Hacked up over 6f which possibly seems to be her best distance??
We'll run her over 7f at Brighton and we'll put a boy on her
Now I'm sorry but WTF is going on? Yes, this horse may absolutely hack up with her head in her chest but why on this little green earth would you go back to 7f and put a 5lb claimer up?? It makes no sense and it simply adds doubt and confusion to the decision making process for punters...serious and semi-serious alike!!! Okay so perhaps serious punters would not be getting over involved in a race of this type at Brighton.
You could say that Brighton is downhill and it's a fast surface so it is an easy 7f, but why not run at 6f or why not go to another track? She has never run here before and some horses cannot handle the downhill track as it unsettles them. They also come down into a dip, it levels out and then they finish uphill. Why add more unknowns to the equation when it is hard enough to win with this horse under ideal circumstances?
I would have had a bet on this horse but not now in this race.
If you look at the start of this post, I mentioned Ivory Lace because this horse is well handicapped again and it may just pop up.
I think we might get a drift on Russian Rave if others in the gambling world pick up on the same things as me. Also, if the media boys at ATR mention it rather than showing the adverts then that could start a slide. I could be completely wrong and the horse may win with her head in her chest but it doesn't make sense to change a winning formula. The connections may well know something I don't but if the horse hoses up over 6f under a professional and looks good doing so why change it. It beggars belief and puts me off wanting to support her - I cannot be alone in this and am sure other form students will have similar concerns. If the drift does come then great but from a winning point of view it just doesn't make any sense...unless I am just a grumpy old git of course