Is there a way to hedge an under/2.5 loss?

[Brovashift]

Hi,

I was trading the under/over 2.5 market yesterday and took a loss on the under 2.5 goals market after 3 goals were scored in the first half, and was wondering if there is a strategy to mitigate or lessen a trade that goes against you.

In hindsight I should've closed my position after the first goal, and could've scalped the under 4.5 market in the 2nd half to recoupe some losses, but was still the potential to lose again, double wammy! And my mind was not in a place to continue trading anyway. If I'm honest my mind wasn't in the right place before placing the first trade. Live and learn.

I was thining; if you back under 2.5 market at kick off e.g. @2.0, and lay the under 0.5 e.g. @1.5, if no goals are scored in your predefined timeline e.g. 10-20mins (depending on game play), I should be in more profit in the 2.5 market than my loss in the 0.5 market... In thoery. This is all in my head last night when trying to sleep, I've not tried any of this in practice mode or guardian.
If a goal is scored then the profit from the under 0.5 market should then limit the loss on the 2.5 market. This is not the best I know because there is still a loss.

There was a clear favourite last night who was the home team, which was my first mistake, jumping on the computer when I had some unexpected free time... 1min before kick off!
In the past I have chosen evenly matched teams with similar odds and low goal numbers per match, and traded in and out while watching the game for any risky situations i.e corners and close range free kicks. My favouite games are with refs who love the sound of their whistle and a lot of game play in the middle of the pitch where both teams seems to favoure throw-ins over using their feet lol.

Would like to hear peoples thoughts.
TIA

[Dallas]

Football markets are all interconnected and some people do make 'insurance' bets in one market to cover potential losses in another, but what you tend to find is the end result is no different to just reducing your stake in the original market (and not bothering with an insurance bet).

You can use Soccer Mystic and have a play around with goal times and get a good idea of how the prices will move on the markets following each goal

[Kai]

As Dallas says, insurance bets are an unnecessary concept, what you're effectively doing is shifting your risk and reward around and probably just complicating things for yourself, combining markets can be quite the rabbit hole, I must have spent countless hours trying to outsmart the market that way without much reward. Bear in mind that in non-liquid markets you practically have to take a price hit every time you want to get matched.

What you can do instead, if you can't consistently find good value, is try to create value yourself through your ladder skill. That is one working concept that I like utilizing as well. Although inplay footy markets aren't as liquid as they should be for active trading, it's a far cry from a cricket market for example, so you have to find the right markets and situations. If you're trading with fast live pix as you say then that's already a good start in this direction.

[Brovashift]

Thanks guys,

Ye I like the idea of just reducing my stake, makes things a lot simpler lol.

Liquidity hasn't really been a problem as I was only using £100 stakes (one at a time)... I say only, spun my head a bit when I lost it last night, I hadn't committed mentally to that risk before placing the trade.
In and out with £25 stakes would hurt a lot less. I do also look for games with £100k+ matched, and 2.5 market in the thousands. I did try U21 a while back, but a nightmare trying to get £100 matched between two Polish teams. I think the total matched was about £300... I was 1/3 of the market lol.

I only choose games on Betfair that have live feed as well, I have no other way of watching games unless they're on TV. But I have noticed a very slight 0.5-1sec delay between Betfair and BA because I hear "This market is suspended" right before the goal goes in. So I am always trying to anticipate the goal beforehand so I can can close out in time.

The 5 second order delay is a bit of a killer, just adds to the risk, it'd be great if it was instant like horse racing. Does Cricket have a delay when entering and exiting trades as well? I dont know enough about cricket or tennis to be able to trade them. The Ryder Cup is my next avenue to explore...

I was having a play around with Soccer Mystic last night and used that to see where I needed to hold to in order to get back somewhere close to break even, which was 50mins. I thought if I can get to half time I'll take the small loss... but unfortunately it went 3-1 instead lol.

[Dallas]

Thanks guys,

Ye I like the idea of just reducing my stake, makes things a lot simpler lol.

Liquidity hasn't really been a problem as I was only using £100 stakes (one at a time)... I say only, spun my head a bit when I lost it last night, I hadn't committed mentally to that risk before placing the trade.
In and out with £25 stakes would hurt a lot less. I do also look for games with £100k+ matched, and 2.5 market in the thousands. I did try U21 a while back, but a nightmare trying to get £100 matched between two Polish teams. I think the total matched was about £300... I was 1/3 of the market lol.

I only choose games on Betfair that have live feed as well, I have no other way of watching games unless they're on TV. But I have noticed a very slight 0.5-1sec delay between Betfair and BA because I hear "This market is suspended" right before the goal goes in. So I am always trying to anticipate the goal beforehand so I can can close out in time.

The 5 second order delay is a bit of a killer, just adds to the risk, it'd be great if it was instant like horse racing. Does Cricket have a delay when entering and exiting trades as well? I dont know enough about cricket or tennis to be able to trade them. The Ryder Cup is my next avenue to explore...

I was having a play around with Soccer Mystic last night and used that to see where I needed to hold to in order to get back somewhere close to break even, which was 50mins. I thought if I can get to half time I'll take the small loss... but unfortunately it went 3-1 instead lol.

Betfair apply delays to all in-play bets in every market, it benefits those like you and me relying on TV pics and prevents those trading at the ground, course, track etc completely cleaning.
The length of the delay varies by sport, if you want a quick overview
viewtopic.php?f=37&t=5164

and for football by league/coverage
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=11148

You can also add the markets to Guardian and then create a custom column to display the in-play delay time for each market

[Kai]

The 5 second order delay is a bit of a killer, just adds to the risk

5 sec is actually pretty fast, some games have a lot more Have to frame your risk whatever you do inplay.

In short you can either look for volatility or value, or ideally a bit of both. Regarding value you can always check out Paulo's playlist for some guidance and inspiration : https://youtu.be/8Iv-G9bkLJ8?list=PLls5 ... 6k3o&t=285

[Derek27]

I'm not into insurance bets for the reasons above but I like to spread my risk amongst trades. In a match where goals are likely, laying the under 4.5/5.5 doesn't cost much and allows you to scalp or quick-swing the under 1.5/2.5 knowing you can potentially profit from both, or getting caught with your pants down on the 2.5 market will at least erect your 4.5 position.

You've also got the 4.5 option of greening, free bet on either unders or overs or letting the lay run.

[Brovashift]

Bloody hell... my ToDo list is growing faster than i can work through everything here

Thanks for the tips and links guys, very appreciated [thumb up emoji] lol.

I've had a bit of a piss poor start to the week on the horses as well, so starting to look deeper into form and race category... but thats for another post, maybe this afternoon

First I'm on "Alerts", and (beginner) "servants".

I need to replace the altinator in my car at some point as well. And people think I don't work... I'm too busy to work!

[Kai]

Bloody hell... my ToDo list is growing faster than i can work through everything here

Yeah, there is so much one can learn, have fun

But do keep in mind that the grass is always greener on social media

[Brovashift]

Bloody hell... my ToDo list is growing faster than i can work through everything here

Yeah, there is so much one can learn, have fun

But do keep in mind that the grass is always greener on social media

I don't really do much social media, waste of valuable time. Plus I don't really care what people are having for dinner

[Derek27]

Bloody hell... my ToDo list is growing faster than i can work through everything here

Yeah, there is so much one can learn, have fun

But do keep in mind that the grass is always greener on social media

I don't really do much social media, waste of valuable time. Plus I don't really care what people are having for dinner

I don't care much if anyone's read any good books lately, but I was once thinking of starting a thread called "Cooked anything nice lately?", with photographs/recipes welcome.

[Brovashift]

Yeah, there is so much one can learn, have fun

But do keep in mind that the grass is always greener on social media

I don't really do much social media, waste of valuable time. Plus I don't really care what people are having for dinner

I don't care much if anyone's read any good books lately, but I was once thinking of starting a thread called "Cooked anything nice lately?", with photographs/recipes welcome.

Actually sounds like a good idea lol. Time and a place for everything. Make sure to include recipes for people with food alergies i.e. wheat and gluten. As I get older the more stuff i seem to be crossing off my menu lol

[thepressure]

I'm not into insurance bets for the reasons above but I like to spread my risk amongst trades. In a match where goals are likely, laying the under 4.5/5.5 doesn't cost much and allows you to scalp or quick-swing the under 1.5/2.5 knowing you can potentially profit from both, or getting caught with your pants down on the 2.5 market will at least erect your 4.5 position.

You've also got the 4.5 option of greening, free bet on either unders or overs or letting the lay run.

What do you mean by this, when you say quick swing the under 1.5/2.5/ If a goal is scored theyre going to dive in price right?

[Derek27]

I'm not into insurance bets for the reasons above but I like to spread my risk amongst trades. In a match where goals are likely, laying the under 4.5/5.5 doesn't cost much and allows you to scalp or quick-swing the under 1.5/2.5 knowing you can potentially profit from both, or getting caught with your pants down on the 2.5 market will at least erect your 4.5 position.

You've also got the 4.5 option of greening, free bet on either unders or overs or letting the lay run.

What do you mean by this, when you say quick swing the under 1.5/2.5/ If a goal is scored theyre going to dive in price right?

If a goal is scored the price will go up and you'll be in a losing position, but you'll be in a more profitable position on the o/u 4.5 market if you've laid it.

[thepressure]

I'm not into insurance bets for the reasons above but I like to spread my risk amongst trades. In a match where goals are likely, laying the under 4.5/5.5 doesn't cost much and allows you to scalp or quick-swing the under 1.5/2.5 knowing you can potentially profit from both, or getting caught with your pants down on the 2.5 market will at least erect your 4.5 position.

You've also got the 4.5 option of greening, free bet on either unders or overs or letting the lay run.

What do you mean by this, when you say quick swing the under 1.5/2.5/ If a goal is scored theyre going to dive in price right?

If a goal is scored the price will go up and you'll be in a losing position, but you'll be in a more profitable position on the o/u 4.5 market if you've laid it.

if possible, and id be very appreciative if you do, could you give me an example stake and odds for something like this, so i can play around with it? Like how much are we laying and what we looking to bet etc....on example odds etc?