Rain is in the air and this would worry me.
I went through the races at Worcester this morning. When I started the sun was making the odd appearance but then it went very dull and now it is raining quite steadily.
I phoned the course and it is starting to drizzle there. I live south of the course so if the rain moves up and gets into the ground then things may change.
Mad Jack Duncan looked certain to be supported and I would not have been surprised to see this horse get towards the 2.75-2.80 region. However, with the possibility of a going change I am not sure how the punters will react. They may not be so keen to take a short price about a horse that has no form on ground that is slower than Good. If the rain stays away then I would not be at all surprised to see this develop into a real steamer.
There are lots of ifs and buts about the rivals and this horse looks progressive so punters may just side with him. Kirkhammerton and Mr Robert look the most likely to trouble the favourite.
The record for favourites at Worcester is not good. I tend to try and catch the move and then trade out because support for a horse doesn't guarantee a victory - wouldn't it be great if it did!!
Worcester 4:40 - Potential steamer......but
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well this horse ran a great race and I think the 2nd was flattered to finish so close.
Mad Jack Duncan kept jumping out to his right at every fence and that meant he was always giving away ground. This was made obvious when he jumped right at the last fence and nearly got caught by Postmaster
I was never too concerned because Mad Jack Duncan was dropping back in trip and would have been even better with an extra 2f. I don't think he can be put up too much for this win so he may well oblige again returned to slightly further. I also think he may even be better on a right handed track so keep an eye out for him at somewhere like Ludlow over 2m6f+
I am not sure what makes punters part with their money? It seems they are happier backing horses based on whispers and gossip but will ignore horses with form in the book who are well handicapped. I certainly wish horses like this could come along every day!!
Mad Jack Duncan kept jumping out to his right at every fence and that meant he was always giving away ground. This was made obvious when he jumped right at the last fence and nearly got caught by Postmaster
I was never too concerned because Mad Jack Duncan was dropping back in trip and would have been even better with an extra 2f. I don't think he can be put up too much for this win so he may well oblige again returned to slightly further. I also think he may even be better on a right handed track so keep an eye out for him at somewhere like Ludlow over 2m6f+
I am not sure what makes punters part with their money? It seems they are happier backing horses based on whispers and gossip but will ignore horses with form in the book who are well handicapped. I certainly wish horses like this could come along every day!!