She is a 3yo filly by Kyllachy out of a Salse mare. That breeding generally suggest a sprinter or occasional miler and the stats for the sire definitely reinforce that view. The race today is 12f (-76yards) and Kyllachy's offspring have recorded just 4 wins at that distance. If you drop it back to 11f then it rises to a paltry 8 winners...not great eh?? If you then drop back to 7-9f you find 94 winners and at 5-6f you find 257!! It would therefore seem quite strange that this filly is running at 12f and is being made favourite.
I've written before that a field of 10 sprinters contesting a long distance race has to produce a winner but that doesn't make them a stayer it just makes them the best stayer amongst the sprinters contesting that race!
We all know that you get the odd "freak" that seems to defy these stats and breeding but would you be interested in 4.10 about a horse when you know the above stats? I know I certainly wouldn't!
I watched her last 5 runs and I could not see anything that suggests she would definitely be better at this extra distance. She does look very one paced and perhaps she's had problems at home? What I generally find with horses like this is that people are fooled when they watch these horses running races where they appear to be staying on at the finish and need further. When you get a horse from a sprinter they are precocious and Kyllachy is known for producing precocious types. Basically they have a headstart on their peers when they are young and this carries them through. However, many people judge them on this and then assume they will get further. As the horses mature, the less precocious types start to catch up and suddenly the whole picture changes.
This filly has a full sister called Shanzu who is now 5yo and she also have never won at this trip!
I am not saying this horse cannot win, I am trying to pose a simple question "would you back this horse and be confident of a victory now you know the above?" My answer would be a definite NO and it would only change to a maybe if the price was 12-16! With the bigger price I could risk my money in the hope this horse would beat a bad bunch!
I believe the booking of Richard Hughes for a trainer like Gary Moore on a horse stepping up in trip causes alarm bells to ring for punters. They assume something must be known about this horse and why would a top jockey like Richard Hughes ride if they didn't expect it to win? I won't bother with that one!
This horse might win easily but at 4.10 you cannot sensibly support horses of this type and expect to be profitable long term.
