graphs direction vs money direction??

[Ryanolifelix]

could someone kindly help me on this topic please.

this question will no doubt sound stupid to someone who understands.

i was wondering why the graphs on runners 1 and 2 are going in the opposite direction to what the money is saying.

what i mean is that on runner 1 the traded volume is higher than runner 2.

but, the graph on runner 1 is drifting and runner 2's graph in shortening.

i would of thought this would be the other way round?

the other runners seem to be stable.

thanks to all that give their knowledge and guidance.

[jamesg46]

The overall probability of each runner represents a percentage of the overall book%. The overall book % chases 100% so if a % on one is decreasing then the % of one or more selections has to increase.

https://youtu.be/1oPM-Xgm2XA

[alexmr2]

Traded volume doesn't equal direction. If it was that simple you would win every trade or it just wouldn't work because everyone would be doing the same and the market would be perfectly efficient

When people say "look for where the money is going" it doesn't literally mean which runner has the most money matched/total traded volume

Favourites are naturally top-heavy in terms of volume matched but there's every chance that it's lay money and the favourite is drifting. Otherwise it could just be the victim of the other horses being backed in due to crossmatching

[Trader Pat]

That's a snapshot of a market almost 4 hours from post time; it's a low grade race and most importantly there's less than 7k in total volume. Its impossible to get a clear picture of a market that far from post time with so little matched. For a race like that 10 minutes from post with at least 100k matched would be a much clearer indication of what's going on.

And like Alex has said volume leaders can be actively laid as well as backed.

[Ryanolifelix]

The overall probability of each runner represents a percentage of the overall book%. The overall book % chases 100% so if a % on one is decreasing then the % of one or more selections has to increase.

https://youtu.be/1oPM-Xgm2XA

I understand this, but. How long can the book % stay under or over 100%?

What I mean is let's say the book moves from 100% to 95%. how long do we have to predict what runners price will move before it does move?

because if the book and prices all move together at the same time how can the book be relevant? This would only be an edge if the gap stays open for a while wouldn't it?

Thanks. Ryan.

[ShaunWhite]

There's a closer relationship between price and traded volume at the bookies because they have a 'book' to balance. Ie so they have approx the same PL no matter which wins and not for instance having half the money they've taken on a 10/1 shot and risking a big loss. On an exchange there isn't that check/balance because everyone is backing or laying individual horses with no regard for an overall balanced book. That means that someone's decision to accept or offer a given price has nothing to do with how much money other individuals have staked so far.

[ShaunWhite]

I understand this, but. How long can the book % stay under or over 100%?

What I mean is let's say the book moves from 100% to 95%. how long do we have to predict what runners price will move before it does move?
.

Broken books ie Back books less than 100% or Lay books >100% won't persist for long, perhaps less than 1s because people run automation to sweep up situations where backing or laying the field produces an instant profit. That means from a manual traders perspective corrections are effectively instantaneous. When the opposite situation occurs due to a spread between back and lay prices (back book >100 and lay book <100%) the spread will tend to close as competition between people forces them to take smaller and smaller margins... Ie being willing to accept slightly worse prices to get ahead of those who what better ones.