Considering adding another strategy - unsure how to calculate exit, please advise!

[arbitrage16]

I trade horses, in-play, manually.

46% of the runners I trade go on to win, so I want to trial a set and forget system where I back the identified runner on a separate exchange, stick in an exit, and then forget about it. No adding or removing of liability etc.

My question is around exits - how do I determine where is best to set my exit? Or whether I should just let it run? Understand that's the million dollar question, but I'm unsure of how to go about it. I have a lot of data to look at, including where my manual trades eventually came into, and the average is around 1.25 but I'm not sure that's so helpful....

Is there a calculation I can do to figure out if I should just let them run to 1.01, or if I should always set an exit?

Unfortunately looking at my returns from manual trading is not that much help, as those have been traded, so liabilities will have been added and reduced as the trade has evolved.

[Derek27]

I trade horses, in-play, manually.

46% of the runners I trade go on to win, so I want to trial a set and forget system where I back the identified runner on a separate exchange, stick in an exit, and then forget about it. No adding or removing of liability etc.

My question is around exits - how do I determine where is best to set my exit? Or whether I should just let it run? Understand that's the million dollar question, but I'm unsure of how to go about it. I have a lot of data to look at, including where my manual trades eventually came into, and the average is around 1.25 but I'm not sure that's so helpful....

Is there a calculation I can do to figure out if I should just let them run to 1.01, or if I should always set an exit?

Unfortunately looking at my returns from manual trading is not that much help, as those have been traded, so liabilities will have been added and reduced as the trade has evolved.

That's really a matter of personal choice. You said 46% go on to win but didn't say what the average price of the winners is. If it's well above 2.17 then letting them run as free bets would be quite sound.

[ShaunWhite]

Hi yeah that's fairly easy, you just need to look at your bet history, split by initial bets and hedging bets. If your hedging bets are making money then keep having them, if not then don't. Your bet history is one of the most useful things you have for looking at what bets are profitable and which aren't. That can be hard to get a feel for otherwise when you're having multiple back and/or lay bets per selection.

[arbitrage16]

Hi yeah that's fairly easy, you just need to look at your bet history, split by initial bets and hedging bets. If your hedging bets are making money then keep having them, if not then don't. Your bet history is one of the most useful things you have for looking at what bets are profitable and which aren't. That can be hard to get a feel for otherwise when you're having multiple back and/or lay bets per selection.

Hi Shaun, thanks for this.

Can I find this through the betfair interface, or is it only through my own recorded data? Not sure I have it if it's the latter., as I only track the following:

Entry Exit (lowest) Hedge Stake Drips Result Came into? % return on stake

[ShaunWhite]

Can I find this through the betfair interface, or is it only through my own recorded data? Not sure I have it if it's the latter., as I only track the following:

Entry Exit (lowest) Hedge Stake Drips Result Came into? % return on stake

Either is fine, betfair bet history or your own log. Sounds like you're recording certain aspects of the execution but perhaps not the details of the resulting bets, eg price, stake, win/lose... Plus anything else which you can break them down by, eg time, type of event, etc etc..