Racing post - How to be a pro punter

[stueytrader]

Just thought this article (reposted from BF forum) might be an interesting read for those on here. It's focused on punting not trading, but sure there should be some relevance for trading too. I'm staggered that the whole article so far does not even mention a betting exchange though!


How to be a pro punter
It is a job no school careers department will recommend. There are no degrees, apprenticeships or night classes centred on how to make a living from finding winners. Professional punters spend their days doing something few understand or envy. Yet what if you want to be like them? How can you punt like a professional?

Over the next three days a band of those who bet for a living will shine a light on some of their dos and don'ts, offering wisdom and advice based on years of experience. They will tell you about methods that work for them and those they consider overrated. They will also provide insight not just on how to unearth winners but also how to deal with backing loser after loser.

First, though, let's start at the very beginning.

"Punting professionally is completely different to how people perceive it," says Mark Holder, someone who knows what it's actually like.

"It's a bit like going somewhere wonderful on holiday. When you're lying on a sunbed, being brought drinks and eating in nice restaurants, you can easily think you want to live there. The realisation of living in that place can be very different to being on holiday. People are similarly mistaken about being a professional punter. This job is totally unglamorous. It's about working alone and grafting for many hours."

Steve Lewis Hamilton: "I couldn't with hand on heart tell someone they could make it pay unless they were putting in the hours"
Steve Lewis Hamilton: "I couldn't with hand on heart tell someone they could make it pay unless they were putting in the hours"

Ask anyone who does what Holder does and they will echo his analysis.

"I couldn't with hand on heart tell someone they could make it pay unless they were putting in the hours," stresses Steve Lewis Hamilton, who has been betting full-time since 1989, prior to which he worked at Smithfield meat market.

"I say that simply because unless you do put in the hours you won't find the opportunities. If you're backing horses at the right price, you're not going to lose too much money, and if you're enjoying it, that's great. However, if you want to do well, you need to be disciplined enough to bet only at the right time."

The right time for one will not be the right time for all – and just as there will be disagreement about which horses to back, our panel is split on the extent to which you should document your efforts.

The write approach?

Holder believes if you do not document what you are doing, you cannot know how you are doing.

"If you want to be serious, you need to have it all written down," he says. "Most people don't want to be reminded what their punting is costing them, but if you don't record your bets you can kid yourself. If you asked most people who lose, they would say they're breaking even."

Neil Channing, who has been betting all his adult life, agrees recording bets provides clarity – but he also thinks it can make your betting better.

Channing argues: "When you have a losing run you're always wondering if it's just variance or has your edge disappeared? That's why it's so important to record your results.

"I paid a guy to make some spreadsheets for me and now I can input my bets and get all the data broken down. The point of doing that is to improve. Knowing how much you've won or lost is almost irrelevant compared to that.

"The more stuff you record, the more things will stand out. When you lose, you question yourself. You want to know if you made a mistake or were simply unlucky. You won't know the answer unless you have all your results documented and can make objective judgement about whether or not you've been making errors."

Neil Channing: "The more stuff you record, the more things will stand out"
Neil Channing: "The more stuff you record, the more things will stand out"

Andy Smith, a prominent bookmaker, punter and now racehorse owner, agrees.

"You must write down your bets, even during your worst runs," says Smith.

"I put together a big graph that showed how I fared over 12 years. It became obvious October and November were consistently my two most successful months. I now hate going on holiday in October and November, but even if I do I still work because I don't want to miss any potential winning bets."

That's what they think. Others think differently.

Eddie Fremantle, a serious punter, broadcaster and journalist, uses trackers but feels he is not disadvantaged by opting against cataloguing everything. Andy Gibson, a professional punter and analyst, spends a lot of time writing but is not a fervent advocate for writing everything down.

"It might be a good idea to start out by recording everything but you could ultimately end up so anal that you bore the pants off yourself," says Gibson.

"I recorded my bets for years and tried to make sense of them, working out what they told me about where and how I was making money. The problem was the area where I was doing best would be my worst losing area the following year.

"There is so much randomness involved in betting. I approach it with the view that I start with a certain amount of money and end with a certain amount of money. That's my record."

Lewis Hamilton also feels information from your past may prove unhelpful to your future.

"The issue with logging everything is it can only ever give you historical data," he says. "I used to log what types of races I was betting in, the race distance, the ground conditions, everything. It turned out to be of no benefit to me.

"One year I might have been winning in novice hurdles but losing in handicap chases. That can so easily be turned around the following year. It could simply have been down to opportunities."

One point or two?

A pound to one person may be £100 to another. Nobody can tell anybody else how much money should be invested on a horse. However, if you have a certain amount of money to spend on betting, how should it be divided up?

"My staking often depends on how much I disagree with the market – which I suppose really all boils down to value," says Gibson. "To me, the most important aspect of the opinions we hold is in how they compare and contrast to the market response. How much I put on can often be determined by how wrong I think the market is.

"If I find a race with eight runners and I'm pretty certain six of those runners are massively unsuited to the day and I don't much like the favourite, I'm probably going to have as much as I can each-way on the 5-1 shot I do fancy. If I thought five of the runners against that 5-1 shot did have a chance, I may not back him at all, to small stakes, win only or maybe in a small multiple bet.

"Equally, if I found two 33-1 shots in an eight-runner race in which I thought the weakness in the market was in the second, third, fourth and fifth favourites, I would be very happy to have as much on those two 33-1 shots each-way as I would on any other bet."

To Gibson, price should not dictate whether a bet is big or small. Holder echoes that.

"I have never been one to simply lump on horses at short prices," he explains. "I wouldn't necessarily have £500 each-way on a 5-1 shot but then only £20 each-way on a 20-1 shot. If I felt the 20-1 shot was good value, my stake on that horse – providing I could get on – would be no different to my stake on the 5-1 shot. I don't stake according to the prices. The winners at the big odds are the ones that make the difference.

"For me it's all about betting horses I think are overpriced who I think will be competitive. I'm trying to find horses who I think will run slightly better than their odds or who have been underestimated by the public."

Holder adds: "It's great if I have a winner at 33-1 or 50-1 but no individual winner or loser is ever going to make a difference to me. Similarly, never do anything today that is going to affect how you feel about tomorrow. If you feel you'll be out of the game with three more losers you're not going to make good decisions. No punting decision I have ever made is based on me thinking what would happen if the horse wins or loses. I make a decision simply based on how I see a race."

When setting out his stall, Fremantle also adheres to the core punting truth of how a horse's price relates to its actual chance. He is also far from averse to backing multiple horses in any one race.

"Sometimes I'll only bet one horse in a race but I generally tend to have a more scattergun approach," he says.

"If you're only betting one horse in a race and upping your stakes to keep turnover high, you put yourself under much more pressure. If you're betting in five or six races a day and lose for two days, you've lost for two days, but if you're only backing one horse a week and lose on 12 consecutive bets, you've lost for three months. I know that would affect me psychologically. The days when I don't back at least one winner are pretty rare and I feel that keeps the pressure off."

Fremantle adds: "I try to have approximately the same amount on in each race but there are, of course, occasions when I fancy one horse strongly. I try to stake more on that horse but it also depends on the price. I wouldn't up my stakes unless I thought the horse's price represented much better value than his actual chance of winning. If a horse I think should be 3-1 is 10-1 I'll have a bigger bet, whereas if I think a 11-10 shot should be evens I'll have only a regular bet.

"In some races I'm not dictated to by any particularly strong opinion I might have. My judgement is reflected in the prices I feel horses should be. If I see they're betting to 95 per cent and I believe my grading of the horses' prices is roughly correct, I think I should be getting involved. In the long run it's hard to lose if you're consistently betting in 95 per cent markets."

Like Fremantle, Channing's approach is to find multiple worthwhile opportunities.

He says: "I now have way more bets than was once the case. When I first started I thought pro punters had about one bet a fortnight. I don't know any pro punters who are like that now."

Staying alive

Restrictions and account closures have become a common complaint among those who bet on racing. You don't need to win big or even bet big to be informed by a bookmaker of 'a trading decision'. It happens regularly to those who punt for a hobby. For professionals it is par for the course.

"I don't like it when bookmakers say they only restrict absolute arbers because it just isn't true – most of my accounts were killed years ago," says Channing.

"I made a conscious decision seven or eight years ago to concentrate on Saturdays and big racedays. I largely bet only on the ITV races and after 11am. What sort of bookmaker should be turning away that sort of business?"

Regrettably, bookmakers do turn away that sort of business. Can the professionals offer any advice as to how to keep accounts open?

"A bad each-way bet is definitely a no-no and price tracking is poor etiquette as well," argues Channing. "I wouldn't advise anyone to wait for a price to crash on an odds comparison site and then dive in to bet with the last firm to update the odds."

Offering his perspective, Holder says: "You don't need to do things that wind up bookmakers. They might make you feel clever but your accounts won't last long.

"I would also say, in general terms, people are wrong to believe that unless they bet early they can't win. They think the market is so precise when a race begins that it's impossible to win. That's nonsense. The market is probably wrong around 20 per cent of the time."

Eddie Fremantle: "You are better off setting your targets fairly conservatively because that way you should get the bets on you want to get on"
Eddie Fremantle: "You are better off setting your targets fairly conservatively because that way you should get the bets on you want to get on"
Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Fremantle still finds a small number of layers who take 'a decent bet' but also knows all about being knocked back. Moreover, while many professional punters employ other people to operate accounts on their behalf, Fremantle has always wanted to be entirely upfront with bookmakers.

"I have learned not to be too greedy," he says. "You are better off setting your targets fairly conservatively because that way you should get the bets on that you want to get on. I once lost an account after I just happened to hit on a series of biggish-priced horses that were either put up later by a leading tipster or evolved into gambles. That all happened by coincidence.

"In an ideal world I would like to see no early prices because they allow bookmakers to be lazy. The odds compilation is really done by the early markets. There is no longer any point trying to back a horse the night before unless you have an enormous network with hundreds of accounts, which I don't have."

And finally...

For those seeking to enjoy greater success at betting, Lewis Hamilton has a suggestion that goes right back to the principle embraced by all those who make profits out of finding winners and already highlighted in this piece – to punt properly, you need to understand value.

He says: "I would advise any punter to practise pricing up races – and they should do that without any outside information to hand. The simplest way is to start with contests that have three possible outcomes, so if you're a fan of football and rugby you could start there.

"I know it's a cliche, but value is everything. The issue people have is in discerning what represents value. It's a subjective thing. You can't find the answer in an algorithm or a book. Bookmakers do it better than anyone, so you have to put yourself in their boots. You have to take them on at their own game.

"If someone is betting for entertainment, if they're happy spending a tenner or £100, if that sort of money isn't going to break them and they're enjoying it, I have no issues with that person doing it however they want to do it. However, if you're betting to win, the principles are exactly the same, regardless of whether you're staking £2, £20 or £2,000."

Lewis Hamilton adds: "You can only bet when the situation presents itself, by which I mean when a horse's price is bigger than it should be. That is the principle of winning – and it has existed since people first started gambling. If you don't adhere to that principle I'm absolutely convinced in the long run you just cannot win."

[SteadySlobbin]

Getting yourself a tipping line or a job as a pundit/talking head seems to be the first step to being a PRO punter.

[Kai]

Is there a TLDR version?

[SteadySlobbin]

Is there a TLDR version?

I’d save yourself the time, Kai. It’s just the same tired crap from the same tired faces.

[LinusP]

Wow, what a load of crap, this really sums it up

I know it's a cliche, but value is everything. The issue people have is in discerning what represents value. It's a subjective thing. You can't find the answer in an algorithm or a book. Bookmakers do it better than anyone, so you have to put yourself in their boots. You have to take them on at their own game.

[stueytrader]

Lol Kai

Yes, sorry about the 'wall' but I just copied it as text. Didn't want to edit too much might miss some 'gold' (possibly comedy),

[Kai]

Wow, what a load of crap, this really sums it up

I know it's a cliche, but value is everything. The issue people have is in discerning what represents value. It's a subjective thing. You can't find the answer in an algorithm or a book. Bookmakers do it better than anyone, so you have to put yourself in their boots. You have to take them on at their own game.

Thanks for the TLDR summary

[stueytrader]

To be fair, though it's not exactly rocket science or totally new, I liked the issue about writing/record keeping as part of this discussion - links to one of the more trading psychology issues I think, as well as being just good practice.

[stueytrader]

The comments on staking are also potentially interesting as an issue - though might vary a bit in terms of trading and staking.