If the average person breaks even from betting randomly, why wouldn't betting at a price higher than everyone else be profitable in the long-term?
At post time each horse has a traded volume range from the best to the worst price of the day, at the off you are often able to take the best price of the day on a drifter (or the lay the lowest price of the day on a steamer). The idea being that the available price is better than what 95% of other people (who break even) have taken. Also assuming that nothing significant has changed like a horse playing up.
If the favourite has been backed from 2 down to 1.5 and the 2nd and 3rd both drift from 6.0 to 10, is there value at the extremes or is BSP assumed to be the best guess of the true odds in the long-term rather than the average of the bets traded? It wouldn't make sense if there was value because in theory it would be taken by someone (sometimes I have saw this happen last second but usually not).
Secondly, if BSP is an accurate guess of the true odds, then wouldn't betting significantly above or below BSP inplay provide value if nothing else has changed near the beginning or mid race? Some of the IP swings seem too far too fast compared to the expected time decay, e.g. a favourite at 2.5 BSP touching 1.8 within the first 10% of the race even though there's every chance that things could change at the other 90% of fences the runners still have to jump
Value Betting Wisdom Of The Crowds
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 4137
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
The latest price at any point in the market lifecycle is likely to be the closest to true odds as this is always the point where the most information is known.
I'd say there is value to be had in those swings, but sometimes there's a good reason why the price moved. A few examples where it can be 'justified' near the beginning: if a favourite has a bad habit of getting out of the stalls slowly (but they don't), if it is believed that another horse taking the lead (or not taking the lead) is advantageous to their chances, or if they've taken a good position in the pack. You can see things like this factored into the price pre-off, so the favourite might be artificially high (so to speak) in respect to those kind of unknowns.alexmr2 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 3:36 pmSecondly, if BSP is an accurate guess of the true odds, then wouldn't betting significantly above or below BSP inplay provide value if nothing else has changed near the beginning or mid race? Some of the IP swings seem too far too fast compared to the expected time decay, e.g. a favourite at 2.5 BSP touching 1.8 within the first 10% of the race even though there's every chance that things could change at the other 90% of fences the runners still have to jump
In your first scenario, you're betting on out of date information. People willing to take a lesser price than you may be aware of things that you're not. Remember, if a sole front-runner is taken out of the race it can turn the betting upside down.alexmr2 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 3:36 pmIf the average person breaks even from betting randomly, why wouldn't betting at a price higher than everyone else be profitable in the long-term?
At post time each horse has a traded volume range from the best to the worst price of the day, at the off you are often able to take the best price of the day on a drifter (or the lay the lowest price of the day on a steamer). The idea being that the available price is better than what 95% of other people (who break even) have taken. Also assuming that nothing significant has changed like a horse playing up.
If the favourite has been backed from 2 down to 1.5 and the 2nd and 3rd both drift from 6.0 to 10, is there value at the extremes or is BSP assumed to be the best guess of the true odds in the long-term rather than the average of the bets traded? It wouldn't make sense if there was value because in theory it would be taken by someone (sometimes I have saw this happen last second but usually not).
Secondly, if BSP is an accurate guess of the true odds, then wouldn't betting significantly above or below BSP inplay provide value if nothing else has changed near the beginning or mid race? Some of the IP swings seem too far too fast compared to the expected time decay, e.g. a favourite at 2.5 BSP touching 1.8 within the first 10% of the race even though there's every chance that things could change at the other 90% of fences the runners still have to jump
In the second scenario, again, the information is out of date and may be irrelevant. Race-reading is highly skilled and it's rare that nothing changes in the early stages of the race. The pace the race is run at can favour one horse and not another and that's far more important than what price horses were being backed at before the race started.
