Lay bot minimise losses

[Jimbo95]

Hi there,
Been using an automated lay bot for outsiders which has a high success rate however occasionally loses almost wiping out my previous profits. Is there any conditions I can put into the bot to minimise my losses in play. I have read that the closed traded profit/loss condition doesnt work in play. Any assistance appreciated. Thanks.

[Dallas]

Hi there,
Been using an automated lay bot for outsiders which has a high success rate however occasionally loses almost wiping out my previous profits. Is there any conditions I can put into the bot to minimise my losses in play. I have read that the closed traded profit/loss condition doesnt work in play. Any assistance appreciated. Thanks.

Every rule, parameter and conditions work both pre and in-play
What you might have read is closing/green up rules may not always get matched in-play due to the faster moving markets and Betfair's in-play bet delay, meaning the price could be miles away from were you placed the bet by the time it appears in the market

[Jimbo95]

Dallas,
Thanks. I will try the closed trade profit/loss condition then.

[ShaunWhite]

Dallas,
Thanks. I will try the closed trade profit/loss condition then.

Like Dallas says everything functions but that doesn't mean its a good idea. And simply cutting a few losses won't turn you into a winner The reason being that when the horse you've laid shortens and your stop-loss triggers you'll find that plenty of them will then falter and eventually lengthen/lose and you'll have taken a loss on something that you'd have won with. You can't escape market efficiency, a horse at 100 will win 1% of the time but if that horse shortens to 10 then from that point it will win 10% of the time, your stop will mean that you'll miss 90% of the gains on the horses that shorten to 10. And you'd miss 80% of your winners if that stop was at 5.0 etc.

In-running "trading" profits like all profits from gambling require you to be getting prices better than the current real world likelihood. A horse being 100 and then being 10 has no inherent value and if you keep placing stop back bets at 10 on horses that, at that moment, should be 20 then those will be poor value bets that will impact on your bottom line. Just predicting a price move isn't enough, so take the time to understand how you make the bottom line for 100s of bets show a profit. You'll see that those bets all being on the same market, or all being on different markets, makes no difference (except for the commission) So what's the difference between a set of net losing bets and the set of net winning bets? Answer that and you're on your way.

[ShaunWhite]

Rant time..... The first lesson in any trading course should be The Mathematics of Profit.... And then the technicalities about how to make that equation profitable. Telling people to look for price moves is all well and good, and even a blind man will be right 50% of the time so newbies feel empowered. So why do 95% fail? Because they're taught the method not the objective. It's as over simplified as saying to win on the horses you need to pick winners.

[jamesedwards]

Hi there,
Been using an automated lay bot for outsiders which has a high success rate however occasionally loses almost wiping out my previous profits. Is there any conditions I can put into the bot to minimise my losses in play. I have read that the closed traded profit/loss condition doesnt work in play. Any assistance appreciated. Thanks.

Whatever the odds, whether backing or laying, the principle remains the same - you need to find value to profit in the long run.

If you lay 100/1 shots at random then about 1 in 100 will win and occasionally wipe out your profits. Long term you will lose due to the spread and commission. Laying outsiders only works in the long run if you are able to pick selections that have less chance of winning than the odds you are able to get matched. Or laying to back later only works if you are able to pick selections that are more likely to shorten later in the market or during the race.