How long to wait after a goal?

[DrJAT]

Hi all,

Just wondering what people's thoughts are on the ideal amount of time to wait after a goal is scored to close trades? I usually wait 2 mins for the market to reform, but I noticed today one of my trades on an over 1.5 goals market that should in principle have been a winner ended up being a tiny loss (basically scratch) because my first green up rule somehow got a worse price than the second one that fire 20 seconds later. Did I just get a bit unlucky? I guess it's a trade off between letting the market reform properly with allowing too much game time to pass that could potentially change the outcome of trade in an unfavourable way.

Follow-up question: for in-play bets I usually use second best market value because I don't want to risk not getting matched with the in-play delay. I'm right in thinking it should still match me at the best available price if there's money there? Is there any reason not to use second (or even third) best price?

Thanks,
JT

[Derek27]

Hi all,

Just wondering what people's thoughts are on the ideal amount of time to wait after a goal is scored to close trades? I usually wait 2 mins for the market to reform, but I noticed today one of my trades on an over 1.5 goals market that should in principle have been a winner ended up being a tiny loss (basically scratch) because my first green up rule somehow got a worse price than the second one that fire 20 seconds later. Did I just get a bit unlucky? I guess it's a trade off between letting the market reform properly with allowing too much game time to pass that could potentially change the outcome of trade in an unfavourable way.

Follow-up question: for in-play bets I usually use second best market value because I don't want to risk not getting matched with the in-play delay. I'm right in thinking it should still match me at the best available price if there's money there? Is there any reason not to use second (or even third) best price?

Thanks,
JT

I haven't done much experimenting on it, but I wait a minute, check that the selection has actually been traded near the new price rather than simply the back/lay price changing without trading, and that there's a narrow spread between back and lay price. The price I take depends on the likely direction. For example, if I backed unders and a goal is scored I'd close at the 2nd or 3rd best price. If I've laid unders I'd close at the best reverse price knowing it will be matched without another quick goal.

[ShaunWhite]

Are you automating or watching it?

But I think you've answered your own question, time isn't a great way to do it. Have you considered checking the overround, or the available vol vs traded so far, or the spread, to establish if the market is fully formed?

What price you go for depends on your attitude to exposure really, If you're taking the 2nd best price then you're probably giving away value, but with more chance of being matched you're reducing your varience. If you've got a position you could green then you're holding a value position on the outcome, (zero cost and +ve return is obvioulsy value) so you might need to ask yourself why you're so keen to accept a bet from someone at what's probably 0ev or even -ev with some of your hard earned position.

If you can't risk not being matched and put yourself in a position where you need to take almost any price on offer then your initial exposure is too big. Plenty of people make a good living out of people who'll take any price because they feel they have to 'close'.

[Dallas]

Anything from 60secs+ but it does all depend on the match and league

In better quality games the markets will form much faster and usually allow for a better value exit earlier, just keep an eye on (or if using automation add conditions) to test the Book% and when the prices begin to touch again

[DrJAT]

Thanks for your reply Shaun!

Are you automating or watching it?

This query is for automating. When I'm trading live I'm generally looking at the ladders, or at least the BF chart.

Have you considered checking the overround, or the available vol vs traded so far, or the spread, to establish if the market is fully formed?

I haven't tbh. I'm not 100% clear on how these change and what the indicators of a fully formed market are. I'm currently using a combination of waiting time (90 or 120 sec) and a check on the difference between back and lay prices that I stole from someone else's example file. I haven't been using that second check for long though and am deciding whether to go through and update all my automation files with it or not. If you can point me somewhere I can research this that would be great!

What price you go for depends on your attitude to exposure really, If you're taking the 2nd best price then you're probably giving away value, but with more chance of being matched you're reducing your varience. If you've got a position you could green then you're holding a value position on the outcome, (zero cost and +ve return is obvioulsy value) so you might need to ask yourself why you're so keen to accept a bet from someone at what's probably 0ev or even -ev with some of your hard earned position.

So this is a bit more complicated because it's situation dependent. I see what you're saying about holding a green position, but it's only green until it either turns into an outright win or disappears when the situation changes. Surely a key part to most trades is to know when to trade out? It's not that I'm in a hurry per se, it's that for my over 1.5 goals system the market is only moving against me to worsen my position unless I'm lucky and a second goal goes in. So if it's before 60 mins when the goal goes in I wait 5 mins before trading out. This doesn't seem to give away much value to the time decay as the goal markets tend to stabilise for a little while if it's still relatively early in the game; but the upside is that another quick goal turns into a full win. If I was watching the match and manually trading then I might stay in longer based on my read, and eventually when I've got more experience and analysis of in-play stats and indicators I might put some rules into my automation for that. But for now I just want to trade out at that point - my position from that point only gets worse over time unless the second goal goes in, so without the benefit of pictures or in-play stats I'd just be turning my trade into a bet to stay in longer. The basis of the system is a lot of small winning trades and the occasional full win for two quick goals, offset by the occasional game that's still 0-0 by about the 77th minute (my exit point is actually determined by odds on the goal market below, but it works out to somewhere between 75 and 80 minutes most of the time depending on the entry point). I don't really want to compromise on the small wins by staying in too long because these are really where the ROI from the system comes from. Maybe there's a case for staying in longer based on remaining game time when the prices are decaying slower in the first half? But in any case if the goal comes after 60 mins I want to lock my profit in before it starts to decay away.

If you can't risk not being matched and put yourself in a position where you need to take almost any price on offer then your initial exposure is too big. Plenty of people make a good living out of people who'll take any price because they feel they have to 'close'.

I don't think I agree with this exactly (or maybe I'm misunderstanding). It's not about my exposure being too much - I'm trading well within my bankroll. It's that the market price is moving away from me so my position is worsening over time. If I don't get matched I'm basically turning my trade into a bet and gambling for the full win at the risk of a full loss. So it's not that I can't afford to take the potential loss, it's that the system doesn't work if you suddenly start turning a couple of the small wins into big losses by trying to squeeze an extra tick out and then not getting matched. It's a low variance and low ROI system that I can trade regularly in high volume, so I guess what I'm really asking is how to optimise the time I trade out relative to the goal. Ideally I would want to stay in for as long as the market price stays quite flat and trade out as soon as the decay begins to kick in again - which may very well be different lengths of time at different stages of the game. But because the market is moving away from me a reverse green wouldn't work; the decision really boils down to optmising when to accept the price on offer.

[DrJAT]

Anything from 60secs+ but it does all depend on the match and league

In better quality games the markets will form much faster and usually allow for a better value exit earlier, just keep an eye on (or if using automation add conditions) to test the Book% and when the prices begin to touch again

Thanks Dallas, much appreciated! Is there anywhere you can direct me to test book %? I understand what it is but I don't know how to use it as a market indicator.
Cheers!
JT

[Dallas]

Anything from 60secs+ but it does all depend on the match and league

In better quality games the markets will form much faster and usually allow for a better value exit earlier, just keep an eye on (or if using automation add conditions) to test the Book% and when the prices begin to touch again

Thanks Dallas, much appreciated! Is there anywhere you can direct me to test book %? I understand what it is but I don't know how to use it as a market indicator.
Cheers!
JT

There's a book% Condition you can add to your rules, or if trading manually you could use it as a visual alert/marker (ie, shade a side of your ladder) rather than just looking at the book% value on your trading screen
https://www.betangel.com/user-guide/boo ... ntage.html

[Dallas]

For the rule to trigger you should be looking for the back book to be less than something like 101.5% - 101%
and/or the lay book to be greater than 98.5% - 99%

The closer to 100% the more efficient the book is

[DrJAT]

For the rule to trigger you should be looking for the back book to be less than something like 101.5% - 101%
and/or the lay book to be greater than 98.5% - 99%

The closer to 100% the more efficient the book is

Awesome, cheers Dallas! Will every market get there eventually but some take longer than others? Or is there a risk that in some lower tier games it never gets there and these criteria won't trigger? The game that prompted this thread was a K-league match this morning in Korea. My green out bet took a pretty bad price and the second trigger caught a much better one 20 seconds later.

[Derek27]

For the rule to trigger you should be looking for the back book to be less than something like 101.5% - 101%
and/or the lay book to be greater than 98.5% - 99%

The closer to 100% the more efficient the book is

Awesome, cheers Dallas! Will every market get there eventually but some take longer than others? Or is there a risk that in some lower tier games it never gets there and these criteria won't trigger? The game that prompted this thread was a K-league match this morning in Korea. My green out bet took a pretty bad price and the second trigger caught a much better one 20 seconds later.

Obscure matches can be very weak with huge spreads and slack in the overround. There's nothing wrong with stress-testing your automation in those matches though. One of the problems I've found is that a market can be adequate enough to open a trade but once a goal is scored it can take ages, if ever, to get competitive again making it difficult to close trade.

[Dallas]

For the rule to trigger you should be looking for the back book to be less than something like 101.5% - 101%
and/or the lay book to be greater than 98.5% - 99%

The closer to 100% the more efficient the book is

Awesome, cheers Dallas! Will every market get there eventually but some take longer than others? Or is there a risk that in some lower tier games it never gets there and these criteria won't trigger? The game that prompted this thread was a K-league match this morning in Korea. My green out bet took a pretty bad price and the second trigger caught a much better one 20 seconds later.

There is that risk yes, and the risk another goal is scored
Its also market dependant, the 'Match Odds' and some 'Over/Under' will reform faster than lesser markets, and the lower quality the over all match the worse that gets (assuming they have that particular market in the first place/)

[ShaunWhite]

Interesting reply DrKat..... And as I don't actually bet/trade football I really don't feel qualified to comment really. You clearly understand the fundamentals that I was just trying highlight. And the stuff about fully formed marks has been covered by Derek and Dallas.

I hope you don't feel like you wasted time doing a long reply, if nothing else I find writing or talking exercises different mental muscles to thinking so it might have helped you to confirm/challenge your ideas anyway.

Btw... on the exposure stuff, that just comes from my approach. I don't classically 'trade'. I just bet bet bet bet and some might be backs and some might be lays....up to a max exposure. I basically apply the same logic to every bet (albeit smaller than a planned 'trade' bet size) and sometimes they balance (aka closed 'trade' ?) and sometimes they don't. That's not too foreign though, most traders are totally familiar with modifying their exposure up and down as the opportunies come and go, or to not close completely if its all looking good.

[DrJAT]

I hope you don't feel like you wasted time doing a long reply, if nothing else I find writing or talking exercises different mental muscles to thinking so it might have helped you to confirm/challenge your ideas anyway.

Not at all! Like you say, writing it down sometimes helps to get thoughts in order. I've got some useful advice from Dallas and Derek too so there's plenty to be getting on with!
Cheers,
JT

[DrJAT]

One of the problems I've found is that a market can be adequate enough to open a trade but once a goal is scored it can take ages, if ever, to get competitive again making it difficult to close trade.

Thanks Derek, good tip! I presume it's possible to set your entry stake based on the market size? Ideally I want a single automation file I apply to all my selectinos, rather than choosing different versions based on the league etc. So it would be handy if it could use the market volume to set a sensible upper limit on entry stake that I think I'll be able to safely trade out in-play. Is this something you've played with?

[Derek27]

One of the problems I've found is that a market can be adequate enough to open a trade but once a goal is scored it can take ages, if ever, to get competitive again making it difficult to close trade.

Thanks Derek, good tip! I presume it's possible to set your entry stake based on the market size? Ideally I want a single automation file I apply to all my selectinos, rather than choosing different versions based on the league etc. So it would be handy if it could use the market volume to set a sensible upper limit on entry stake that I think I'll be able to safely trade out in-play. Is this something you've played with?

Not yet. I haven't been botting for long but I'm currently working on o/u automation where I can set parameters for the bot to work on, but o/u markets depend on likely goals which are league related and my stakes aren't high enough to worry about overstaking in a decent market. But when I move onto horse racing markets where volumes can vary at the same meeting I think stakes based on volume or money available might be the way to go.

As the saying goes, you can be the jack of all trades or the master of one. It's the same with bots, you can create a bot that handles a wide range of situations and a bit more complexity or several that are more specialised.