Getting lay bets matched as price drifts

[ija34]

Hey,

So I'm running a system that places lay bets but due to delays or being in the queue, sometimes the prices drifts and doesn't get matched. It isn't a problem as the price steams because automatching does its thing so how would I set up automation to get matched as the price is drifting basically replicating what you would do with a manual bet on Betfair clicking the up arrow to raise the lay price of an unmatched bet.

Also, what are you opinions on getting a huge amount of liability matched on huge liquidity games (£30k+ at the start and £100,000s inplay to millions). I'm talking liabilities between £2,000 - £5,000. My lowest odds so far have been 1.38 so for a liability of £5,000, my stake would have been £13,157.89, keeping in mind the liquidity of the event and the automation that will continually attempt to get matched. Do you think this amount of money would have been matched assuming no goals or anything?

[Dallas]

On the parameters tab for the 'place at' option use
'Custom ticks above best reverse price'

Betfair will still match the bet at the best available price when it arrives in the market

Getting large bets matched you'll either have to drip it into the market or you may have to take a worse price/s

[ija34]

On the parameters tab for the 'place at' option use
'Custom ticks above best reverse price'

Betfair will still match the bet at the best available price when it arrives in the market

Getting large bets matched you'll either have to drip it into the market or you may have to take a worse price/s

Awesome, cheers! By drip into the market, do you mean I would have say 5 place a lay bet rules all at £1,000 liability with a condition that there are 0 unmatched bets in the market and arm them maybe a few minutes apart?

[ija34]

Do you think this would work?

Place a lay bet 1 - Arm at 00:55:00 - 01:00:00, total liability/5 at 3 ticks above current best reverse price, includes initial bet conditions

Store current odds - Stores the current odds so that next bets won't be placed if odds have changed too much showing there may be a goal

Place a lay bet 2 - Arm at 00:57:00 - 01:02:00, total liability/5 at 3 ticks above current best reverse price, 0 unmatched bets in the market, current odds within 10 ticks either side of the stored odds

Place a lay bet 3 - Same conditions but arm at 00:59:00 - 01:04:00

Place a lay bet 4 - Same conditions but arm at 01:01:00 - 01:06:00

Place a lay bet 5 - Same conditions but arm at 01:03:00 - 01:08:00

Thinking it could be beneficial to add some rule that will attempt to determine if there is potentially a goal such as a rule with a suspension condition that will cancel all unmatched bets if the market becomes suspended. Can't think if there is a automatic suspension at the start of the 2nd half though like when the game initially kicks off.

I'm gonna incorporate it into my strategy now because I don't want it to skew my results at a later date

[ShaunWhite]

Place a lay bet 1 - Arm at 00:55:00 - 01:00:00, total liability/5 at 3 ticks above current best reverse price, i

Lay above current best? Sounds like you're focusing on getting money on at the expense of value.

[ija34]

Place a lay bet 1 - Arm at 00:55:00 - 01:00:00, total liability/5 at 3 ticks above current best reverse price, i

Lay above current best? Sounds like you're focusing on getting money on at the expense of value.

It'll get matched at the current best price if there is enough money?? If the current best odds are 1.5 then my bet will placed at 1.53 but matched at 1.5 assuming enough money? If not then it'll drift to 1.51 and should hopefully get matched so 3 ticks is just to ensure I have enough time to get matched incase the odds bounce up a bit.

[ija34]

It beats worst case scenario, bet is placed at 1.5, price drifts to 1.51 and continues drifting with unmatched bet, there is a late goal, price drops to <1.1, bet is matched, trade out for big loss. Sure I could have cancelled unmatched bet but would have missed a good profit opportunity. My system doesn't trade out for profits though, it only trades out for a loss. Had my bet not been matched and the bet went on to win, I would have lost out on a big profit just for the sake of 3 (potential) ticks difference.

[ShaunWhite]

Place a lay bet 1 - Arm at 00:55:00 - 01:00:00, total liability/5 at 3 ticks above current best reverse price, i

Lay above current best? Sounds like you're focusing on getting money on at the expense of value.

It'll get matched at the current best price if there is enough money?? If the current best odds are 1.5 then my bet will placed at 1.53 but matched at 1.5 assuming enough money? If not then it'll drift to 1.51 and should hopefully get matched so 3 ticks is just to ensure I have enough time to get matched incase the odds bounce up a bit.

The money being offered especially in large amounts is the smart money. You're supposed to be the smart money too. Just always remember you're not a punter, you're a trader and think about who's offering and who's taking prices.

[ija34]

The money being offered especially in large amounts is the smart money. You're supposed to be the smart money too. Just always remember you're not a punter, you're a trader and think about who's offering and who's taking prices.

I'm betting using certain trading techniques like analysing weight of money and matched volume on selections and also trading out for a small loss than taking a big loss (hence offering me value in the long-term). If my bet is winning I leave it on for the maximum profit. This is something I learned whilst I was trading,

1. Maximise profit
2. Limit Losses
3. Repeat

To my surprise with this system, I have traded out early for small losses and absolutely none of these bets went on to win so I have traded out at the most opportune times. My strike rate is currently 60.61% which is rubbish yet I'm in profit. The P/L graph tends to bounce up and down around the same balance then jumps up then bounces then jumps up again so what I'm doing seems to be working well. Will it work permanently? I'm confident it will but can never be sure until it's fully proven but it seems to make sense since maximising profit and limiting losses is the goal so why trade out early for a smaller profit.

[ShaunWhite]

I don't think you understood my point.

Saying "trading out for small loss than taking a big loss (hence offering me value in the long-term). If my bet is winning I leave it on for the maximum profit"..... has nothing to do with bets being value or not. That's like saying you'll minimise losses and maximise gains, but you don't mind backing heads at 1.99.

I thought I'd just let ChatGPT explain it to you...

Regardless of whether one is trading or betting, the foundational principle of finding value and having a positive expected value (+EV) remains essential for achieving long-term profitability. Without +EV, any profits are likely to be short-lived, and a trader or bettor would eventually face losses over time.

[Kai]

Not the wisest idea to discard Shaun's advice so easily, he's built an edge around these core concepts, as others have done too

[ija34]

I don't think you understood my point.

Saying "trading out for small loss than taking a big loss (hence offering me value in the long-term). If my bet is winning I leave it on for the maximum profit"..... has nothing to do with bets being value or not. That's like saying you'll minimise losses and maximise gains, but you don't mind backing heads at 1.99.

I thought I'd just let ChatGPT explain it to you...

Regardless of whether one is trading or betting, the foundational principle of finding value and having a positive expected value (+EV) remains essential for achieving long-term profitability. Without +EV, any profits are likely to be short-lived, and a trader or bettor would eventually face losses over time.

I do understand your point, your basically saying as in your example, if you're betting on heads, you would want to place a bet at 2.02 or above so you are getting that 0.2 margin of value. The problem is bookies create their own margin and generally a selection that has a 50% implied chance of winning will get odds of 1.85 and on the exchange they will be closer to 2.0. To find odds that offer a higher value in comparison with their chance of winning are far and few between. Not to mention that just because your analysis says a selection has 50% chance of winning, it doesn't mean it does as all sports are unpredictable. There are teams that have a chance of 90% to win and end up losing or drawing.

Even value finders on the internet rarely have any selections and by the time you get on them, the odds have been adjusted and are no longer value so if you make a big consistent profit by only finding value then hats off to ya. You must have to do a lot of analysis consistently aswell to compare the odds to their chance of winning.

[ija34]

Just to add, if you analysed a match before it kicked off and you gave a selection say 50% implied chance of winning for simplicity and as time decays in the match, the odds drift to 2.2 (assume score is currently 0-0) then isn't this value according to your system? but in reality it wouldn't be because as time decays, the teams chances of winning also reduce so it'd also be difficult to find value Inplay too. So I get the concept of finding value, I just don't understand how you find it and make a decent profit.

[ShaunWhite]

Just to add, if you analysed a match before it kicked off and you gave a selection say 50% implied chance of winning for simplicity and as time decays in the match, the odds drift to 2.2 (assume score is currently 0-0) then isn't this value according to your system?

No. Odds change as more information becomes available. The price might be 2.0 at the kick off and 2.2 after 10mins. That doesn't necessarily mean either of those prices was correct. I'm taking about the price of individual bets, you're talking about price movement.

Even value finders on the internet rarely have any selections and by the time you get on them, the odds have been adjusted and are no longer value so if you make a big consistent profit by only finding value then hats off to ya. You must have to do a lot of analysis consistently aswell to compare the odds to their chance of winning.

There's no need to do analysis, the markets have done that for you. I have no interested in any of it and don't even know who's running or playing. But I know the markets are efficient, and that on balance, people offering money are making a margin and people taking money are punters losing margin. It's how I make my living.


Look you can make money trading price movement without knowing this stuff, and nobody trading has a brain the size of a planet and working it all out live. But understanding how betting maths works helps you to avoid doing things that will cost you money without realising it. Margins are small and I was just pointing out that if you're taking prices, especially several ticks worse just to try and get more on, then you're losing margin you can't afford to lose.

tbh it's maybe a bit advanced for you so I understand why you can't see it.

[ShaunWhite]

....an example of an analysis-free strategy (pdf link top right). And one that hightlights the problem with bookies again too in it's conclusion.

https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.02824

But to summarise that paper and relate it to the exchange, plug-in your bookie price feed (or maybe 100+ bookies from someone like https://www.lsports.eu/oddservice/), average it, add a margin, offer on the exchange. Let's face it, your analysis won't be better than their combined wisdom.