I have heard plenty of advice from people about not trading "in play" as it is a quick way to the poorhouse, and I would generally agree that these are wise words, especially to those just starting out their trading journeys, and especially if one does not have access to live television pictures. However I think that as a blanket statement this is not so correct as I believe there is a huge difference between a Maiden sprint over 6 furlongs vs a 2.5 mile National Hunt chase which gives us much more time to assess the race and to place the trade.
We all know that on average the favourite comes in approx 30% of the time, but what I am curious about is what percentage of favourites hit a price that is lower than their SP while in running. Is it even possible to find statistics that can help me model this to see if it could be turned into a viable strategy?
Thanks in advance for your input.
Your collective knowledge
Favourites price movements in play
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I make a very good living betting in Play (without fast pictures). What I think the guys are saying is if your trading and instead of taking a loss and redding up you let your bet go in play with the hope of being matched, that is not a good idea.
However, there are plenty of strategies you can use to win in play. It's all about finding something that works for you.
However, there are plenty of strategies you can use to win in play. It's all about finding something that works for you.
If you look at any horse in any race in-play, you'll see lots of lay money waiting to be matched below 2.0.
I don't know if it's a profitable strategy, but the fact that people persist with it suggests it is.
I hope this helps.
Jeff
I don't know if it's a profitable strategy, but the fact that people persist with it suggests it is.
I hope this helps.
Jeff
mugsgame wrote:I make a very good living betting in Play (without fast pictures). What I think the guys are saying is if your trading and instead of taking a loss and redding up you let your bet go in play with the hope of being matched, that is not a good idea.
However, there are plenty of strategies you can use to win in play. It's all about finding something that works for you.
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rubysglory
- Posts: 309
- Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:02 am
misimiki - i have been running some relative probability stats recently on Price vs Actual Win % and although the sample data still not large enough for me to draw any definite conclusions, the probability of In Play Odds <= SP Odds is approx 53% across all horse races. Not surprisingly or perhaps purely coincedental, this is near equal to the equation 30% (favourites win per 100) + 30% of 70% (field win per 100) = 51%. Probability is fractional higher in races <= 1 mile perhaps due to volatility and frenzied nature of betting during shorter races. Results show statisically high level losses on a straight SP vs In Play "Trade" basis and a one way trip to the poor house. Hope this helps.
rg
rg
Hi Mugsgame
Do you use pictures at all with in-play trading, or do you purely trade what you see on the screen?
How do you deal with the fact that, at a moment's notice, a horse can go from 2.0 to 20.0, or vice versa?
Jeff
Do you use pictures at all with in-play trading, or do you purely trade what you see on the screen?
How do you deal with the fact that, at a moment's notice, a horse can go from 2.0 to 20.0, or vice versa?
Jeff
mugsgame wrote:I make a very good living betting in Play (without fast pictures).