Trading in the morning

[Iron]

Does anyone open trades in the morning on horses that are drifting or steaming, in the anticipation that they will continue moving in their current direction?

Thanks

Jeff

[LeTiss]

I always trade early prices Jeff - I never trade horses with less than 30mins to the race.

After a while you get to know your strengths and weaknesses as a trader. I had a succession of terrible results trading horses just before the off, so I started doing early prices instead. You can still pick up some excellent swings, but they don't move so violently, so it's easier to read the markets

[Iron]

Thanks LeTiss

What time do you find is best to open your trades with this approach?

Does the approach also work with pre-match football odds?

Jeff

I always trade early prices Jeff - I never trade horses with less than 30mins to the race.

After a while you get to know your strengths and weaknesses as a trader. I had a succession of terrible results trading horses just before the off, so I started doing early prices instead. You can still pick up some excellent swings, but they don't move so violently, so it's easier to read the markets

[LeTiss]

I wait until the major bookies have made their prices available - usually between 10 & 11

I trade all sports pre-match

[Iron]

Thanks - I'll give it a go.

Are you basically looking for a clear steamer or drifter?

Do you place your back or lay, set a stoploss, and return to the match much nearer the off?

Jeff

I wait until the major bookies have made their prices available - usually between 10 & 11

I trade all sports pre-match

[csabz90]

LeTiss, why do you expect any price movement when you see the bookies' prices in the morning? Do the Betfair prices move towards the bookies' prices? Is it not the other way round?

Is there movement in soccer match odds at all? I always compare the Betfair odds to those on Oddschecker, but they are almost the same. So how would I decide whether there would be a movement or not?

And again, the liquidity of horse racing markets at night is not really good, so why do you think in the morning that the trends are going to remain in the same direction?

Thanks for your answers in advance.

I wait until the major bookies have made their prices available - usually between 10 & 11

I trade all sports pre-match

[lilgreenback]

Check out the BF graphs on the football as well as the horses. If there was no movement in the prices it would be impossible for people to make money, (I think) the prices are often very static but they do move.

Is there movement in soccer match odds at all? I always compare the Betfair odds to those on Oddschecker, but they are almost the same

It might be an idea to check the horse odds of the three favs as well as the "one click screen" the night before, at early AM then at 10.00 then 11:00 and midday (some races may have started by then) and in doing so take some screen shots of them (at those points save the "one click screen" as well) so you can look back and see if there is any change in the odds.

Ask yourself why would the odds move? differing opinions to an animal's merits or ability. A ground change, a jockey change, a withdrawn fav, a poor word or good word from the trainer. A "Curley horse"

It may pay to monitor the football a little further out two or three days before the game in the matches and leagues you are interseted in. A little research can assist in better decision making start in areas that you know quite well. Is a striker missing or are there inuries/illness, have they been banned from wearing "snoods". Check the team sheets when they are due to be issued as that can have major influences in opinion.

Not sure if this helps at all others could fill in the gaps somewhat.

[Iron]

Could you not make money in that instance by offering prices on both sides of the book?

Jeff

Check out the BF graphs on the football as well as the horses. If there was no movement in the prices it would be impossible for people to make money.

[lilgreenback]

The problem being and someone please correct me if wrong is that if there is a gappy market and you offer the prices you may get filled on one side and the price go against you on that. Say you back get matched and the price suddenly starts to drift instead of shortening and closing your position. I suppose it depends on the volume of money and volatility. If you place the spread too far away you would reduce your chance of closing out (if that makes sense?)

I suppose you could offer up prices on the day of the final decs hoping to get a match or partial match and wait to see if horse shortened over the next day or so. I know when I first looked at the BA vids and saw the one with the trailing stop; when I looked at the BF graphs and saw how the prices moved I thought that looked interesting but never had the patience to mess with (er, research)it.

The only thing with this is as you are aware is the really early price moves (BA graphs) are not indicative of anything due to lack of liquidity. But I reckon someone must do well out of it!!

[Iron]

I bet Betfair do! The house always wins!

Jeff

The only thing with this is as you are aware is the really early price moves (BA graphs) are not indicative of anything due to lack of liquidity. But I reckon someone must do well out of it!!

[lilgreenback]

Especially with loaded dice and wonderful customer services "allegedly"