I've been away from Betfair & Betangel for a few years but I'm starting to look at it again now.
I captured pre-off data from todays UK & Ireland Horse Racing and compared todays volumes against data that caputured 5 years ago to the day.
Saturday 17th August 2019 v Saturday 17th August 2024.
Most Venues are exactly the same as 5 years ago. In Ireland though Curragh ran today and Cork 5 years ago.
Corresponding average Pre-off Race Volumes are down between 43% and 70%.
For you guys that have traded through these last 5 years - any suggestions on what are the main reasons for this decline?
Pre-off volumes 2019 v 2024
Declining interest in racing as a betting medium, affordability checks, premium charge, bookie restrictions, withdrawal of concessions, increasing societal antagonism towards racing, increasingly authoritarian oversight, and declining prize money would be the main ones.
When you factor in inflation, the decline is simply savage. It's terminal too, imo.
When you factor in inflation, the decline is simply savage. It's terminal too, imo.
I'm reminded of Gazuty's line on here about the Australian Racing thread
Nobody posts here any more because nobody posts here anymore
the day that that scenario is mirrored on the pre-race markets is drawing nearer and nearer.
This coming winter over the sticks could be the point of no return.
Nobody trades these markets any more because nobody trades these markets any more
Nobody posts here any more because nobody posts here anymore
the day that that scenario is mirrored on the pre-race markets is drawing nearer and nearer.
This coming winter over the sticks could be the point of no return.
Nobody trades these markets any more because nobody trades these markets any more
No that's wrong. My thoughts in a moment.Emmson wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2024 11:05 pmI'm reminded of Gazuty's line on here about the Australian Racing thread
Nobody posts here any more because nobody posts here anymore
the day that that scenario is mirrored on the pre-race markets is drawing nearer and nearer.
This coming winter over the sticks could be the point of no return.
Nobody trades these markets any more because nobody trades these markets any more
First off you can't compare the same races directly as the shorter the price of a favourite the more volume it generates. So that needs to be a comparison.
The two main problems with declining liquidity is that in 2013 Breon, the then CEO, decided to really go for it on the Sportsbook.
Betfair was always an exchange, but ask your average Joe now what Betfair is and they don't really know. By conflating the branding, Betfair has ended up with a confusing proposition.
Since then, Betfair have worked out that most of the general public are really stupid and just pushing them to the high margin sportsbook will mean they still place a bet, at huge benefit to Betfair.
So you can see this pattern across ALL sports that the volumes are declining as Betfair push people to the sportsbook.
For example, Euro 2024 volumes were down 70% on Euro 2012. Football bets are good margin for sportsbooks. I saw Betfair post that nearly 20,000 people bet on a game on the sportsbooks on some match this year. 20,000 people that could have placed a bet on the exchange.
And then we now have affordability nonsense. So that's not helping either!
But, there will still be £40-£50bn bet on the exchange this year, I guess? There is still a lot of opportunity.
The two main problems with declining liquidity is that in 2013 Breon, the then CEO, decided to really go for it on the Sportsbook.
Betfair was always an exchange, but ask your average Joe now what Betfair is and they don't really know. By conflating the branding, Betfair has ended up with a confusing proposition.
Since then, Betfair have worked out that most of the general public are really stupid and just pushing them to the high margin sportsbook will mean they still place a bet, at huge benefit to Betfair.
So you can see this pattern across ALL sports that the volumes are declining as Betfair push people to the sportsbook.
For example, Euro 2024 volumes were down 70% on Euro 2012. Football bets are good margin for sportsbooks. I saw Betfair post that nearly 20,000 people bet on a game on the sportsbooks on some match this year. 20,000 people that could have placed a bet on the exchange.
And then we now have affordability nonsense. So that's not helping either!
But, there will still be £40-£50bn bet on the exchange this year, I guess? There is still a lot of opportunity.