Football Question

[andy28]

I was just catching up with Peters latest video on LTD and he said he has data on 18000 matches. I am building a model on the EPL but my issue is I only have 2yrs data so 760 matches. However I have all up with other leagues around 12000 results. So my question is can you group leagues together, I guess a 50% prob in the EPL is the same as a 50% chance in the Spanish league?

I kept them separate as each have different Xg's, styles of play etc, but I also think if you have data back more than 5yrs it may be skewed as players have left new managers etc.

What is the rule of thumb on this?

Thanks

[Michael5482]

There's The Premier League & La Liga where home teams are priced between 1.98 to 2.02. Premier League shows a loss, La Liga a profit

Personally I model each league separate then collate them onto one spreadsheet to find the best opportunities. Obviously your model will be different to mine and both different to Peter's and neither of as are right or wrong.

I do this because there are goals to be found in low scoring leagues and one game I model in a low scoring league maybe a better opportunity than in a high scoring league. Basically I just look for goals.

[Euler]

I was just catching up with Peters latest video on LTD and he said he has data on 18000 matches. I am building a model on the EPL but my issue is I only have 2yrs data so 760 matches. However I have all up with other leagues around 12000 results. So my question is can you group leagues together, I guess a 50% prob in the EPL is the same as a 50% chance in the Spanish league?

I kept them separate as each have different Xg's, styles of play etc, but I also think if you have data back more than 5yrs it may be skewed as players have left new managers etc.

What is the rule of thumb on this?

Thanks

Each league needs to be assessed differently. Spanish leagues tend to score fewer goals and therefore are more likely to end in a draw, for example.

[andy28]

Understood, thanks