US Open - False green - Profiting from changes to the market structure.

[daveh]

Hi

I have a question regarding trading the outright market of a tennis event in this case the US Open. I traded this market initially by laying Sinner but as the number of players left began to shorten and as the drug controversy surrounding Sinner didn't seem to be effecting his play I decided to cut my position, giving me a losing position on him only.

When the tournament reached 6 players remaining I backed the 5 others to win a fixed amount in the outright market. As each of the remaining players was eliminated the overall liability was fluctuating until there were two players remaining and according to green up column I was seemingly in a small profit which i decided to take.

But now my overall balance is in a losing position! So I hope I have given a clear picture of what I did and the result, I am looking to understand how I made an overall loss even though I was in profit.

My question is - How can I identify if I am truly in a profitable position in an outright market when players are being removed or if the profit is a false green?