A cautionary tale

[onis]

I got into sports betting this year because a friend of a friend is a professional sports bettor. During Christmas, he casually told me, "Just lay the draw on Test match cricket—it always makes money!"

So, I did. And for the most part, it works. But honestly, it’s like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. The risk-to-reward ratio is something like 10:1, but you do win about 80% of the time. Laying £100 on every match has been profitable this year, at least.

But here's the thing—this was just the gateway drug. You know how it goes: "If this works, what else works?" We've all been there!

A little background about me: I've been in and around financial markets for 15 years. Although I make most of my money in the crypto markets (where nothing boosts your PnL like a good exponential growth wave), making money felt almost easy at times. But those kinds of environments don’t last forever.

I ventured into laying the draw in football, only to find out that it’s much harder than it seems. Fast forward to this week, and I stumble across Bet Angel. That’s when it hit me. I saw this forum full of people all asking the same question: "How exactly do you make money doing this?"

It felt like déjà vu. I’ve seen this exact same structure in every market I’ve traded—bonds, ETFs, options, forex, traditional finance, crypto, poker—you name it. They’re all nearly zero-sum games (minus commissions and fees), and the profit structure is identical.

Take poker, for example. In a tournament, only the top 10% (or fewer) will actually make money. Every single brokerage firm in the UK now has to display a disclaimer on their websites: "90% of our customers lose money."

It’s the same in horse racing. There might be £100,000 bet on 8 horses by 50,000 punters, but only around 10-12% of people will turn a profit, regardless of the strategy they use.

The only people who consistently make money from these markets (not in them) are the enablers—Betfair, Bet Angel, PokerStars, Pepperstone, etc. A quick look at Bet Angel's finances over the past few years shows they've made over half a million from punters, all while having zero market exposure. Someone's winning, but it’s not us...

Long story short, always be acutely aware of who is incentivized to act in a certain way—and more importantly, who stands to profit from it. Peter's YouTube videos, where he casually says, "Just click here and make £3," seem innocent enough. I mean, who’s ever been scammed by a middle-aged white guy, right? He always wins, and it’s only small amounts!

YouTube probably has petabytes of videos just like this, featuring different men and different markets. But they all boil down to the same reductive formula:

Buy my course. Buy my book. Buy my software.

If you’re just starting out and you think you can make money in any of these environments, what you’re really saying is, "I believe I can beat 80%+ of other market participants" But if you really think about it, mathematically, you can’t. If we could all just turn up and consistently take a few ticks out of every market, there would be no market!!!

So, here's my advice: Save yourself thousands of hours, money, and stress. Withdraw what you have left on the exchange and close your account.

[Euler]

When this post popped up in the moderation queue it was flagged to me as a first post and one that was quite 'unusual'. So it merited investigation as to whether it actually came from a Bet Angel user.

I checked, and it turns out it did. But only somebody that had signed up for a trial of our trader product yesterday. So I hope that gives others some additional context here.

I'm guessing you haven' t been around for long at all. But here are a couple of key facts for you.

Bet Angel was created before people knew about Betfair and Betfair trading and before there was an API. It wasn't created, like others, to exploit the market. We pioneered trading and trading tools. We wanted to trade and had to create the tools to do so, long before anybody even thought of the concept.

Peter's YouTube videos, where he casually says, "Just click here and make £3," seem innocent enough. I mean, who’s ever been scammed by a middle-aged white guy, right? He always wins, and it’s only small amounts!

Peter has made more than a few quid here and there. Lifetime P&L in the millions. But that's not as important as Bet Angel users wgi have made a substantial amount of money over the intervening years.

But, of course, as people know. You are not guaranteed to make money. That is the essence of trading and something any trader knows. Newbies often struggle to come to terms with that.

90% of people don't lose and if you think that the only the middle man makes money. You can actually become the middle-man on Betfair, that's part of it's beauty.

Lots fall at the first hurdle, as appears to your case. The opportunity is there, but you have to see it. Lots can't for some reason.

I'm sure the forum will be happy to add it's views.

[onis]

Haha, did you use ChatGPT to write that response?

Did you even read my post? Because your reply kind of suggests that you didn’t.

80–90% of people do lose money, this like most other markets, is a zero-sum game. The profits can only be obtained from others' losses.

Again, I’ve been around for over 15 years in the markets, as I stated in my original post. Nice hit piece, though, trying to spin me off as some newbie clown.

My advice was proper and sound for anyone wanting to play these games. Most will try, and most will fail—that is a mathematical certainty.

[Euler]

Did you even read my post? Because your reply kind of suggests that you didn’t.

Touche.

I don't want to get into an argument, but you are completely wrong on so many points. You are clearly new to sports trading else you wouldn't have made those comments.

I have the actual figures from the industry and from Betfair and 80-90% do not lose. Even in forex you see this is not the case as the details are public after ESMA.

This forum is full of people who have been on Betfair for years and are privileged enough to do this for a living. Coming on here and preaching to them isn't a great use of your first post on the forum. Perhaps try and positively engage with the very people who could help you.

[onis]

You have even posted figures yourself on FX that I’ve seen.

The vast majority do lose money; that is a fully substantiated fact.

People like you are guilty of over-glamorizing this kind of industry, which could use more regulation and transparency.

A lot of poor people lose money they can ill afford to lose. The people you’re almost bragging about took it from those poor fools who try to play these games.

You should be ashamed, really.

[Michael5482]

You have even posted figures yourself on FX that I’ve seen.

The vast majority do lose money; that is a fully substantiated fact.

People like you are guilty of over-glamorizing this kind of industry, which could use more regulation and transparency.

A lot of poor people lose money they can ill afford to lose. The people you’re almost bragging about took it from those poor fools who try to play these games.

You should be ashamed, really.

You've claimed to be a crypto trader which is the most unregulated, manipulable, corruptible form of gambling around then go on to attack sports gambling that is nothing more than a hobby for the vast majority which is controlled by legislation from the Government and regulated by the Gambling Commission (in the UK).

Being polite I think you're a f@ckin idiot.

[jimibt]

Being polite I think you're a f@ckin idiot.

+1 - i'm joining the #me2 movement on that one!!

[onis]

Being polite I think you're a f@ckin idiot.

Classic response from the angry, overweight, middle aged goons that would usually populate this kind of place... *eye roll*

[Michael5482]

Being polite I think you're a f@ckin idiot.

Classic response from the angry, overweight, middle aged goons that would usually populate this kind of place... *eye roll*

You claim to take make money on a zero sum unregulated game like crypto taking money off people but have an issue with fully regulated hobby in sports gambling? Very strange stance to take.

[sionascaig]

So, here's my advice: Save yourself thousands of hours, money, and stress. Withdraw what you have left on the exchange and close your account.

You could say the same about life & the church.

I'm presuming you have had a particularly bad experience and need to get it out there...

[ForFolksSake]

Being polite I think you're a f@ckin idiot.

Classic response from the angry, overweight, middle aged goons that would usually populate this kind of place... *eye roll*

What a load of Malarkey ......

[Archery1969]

I got into sports betting this year because a friend of a friend is a professional sports bettor. During Christmas, he casually told me, "Just lay the draw on Test match cricket—it always makes money!"

So, I did. And for the most part, it works. But honestly, it’s like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. The risk-to-reward ratio is something like 10:1, but you do win about 80% of the time. Laying £100 on every match has been profitable this year, at least.

But here's the thing—this was just the gateway drug. You know how it goes: "If this works, what else works?" We've all been there!

A little background about me: I've been in and around financial markets for 15 years. Although I make most of my money in the crypto markets (where nothing boosts your PnL like a good exponential growth wave), making money felt almost easy at times. But those kinds of environments don’t last forever.

I ventured into laying the draw in football, only to find out that it’s much harder than it seems. Fast forward to this week, and I stumble across Bet Angel. That’s when it hit me. I saw this forum full of people all asking the same question: "How exactly do you make money doing this?"

It felt like déjà vu. I’ve seen this exact same structure in every market I’ve traded—bonds, ETFs, options, forex, traditional finance, crypto, poker—you name it. They’re all nearly zero-sum games (minus commissions and fees), and the profit structure is identical.

Take poker, for example. In a tournament, only the top 10% (or fewer) will actually make money. Every single brokerage firm in the UK now has to display a disclaimer on their websites: "90% of our customers lose money."

It’s the same in horse racing. There might be £100,000 bet on 8 horses by 50,000 punters, but only around 10-12% of people will turn a profit, regardless of the strategy they use.

The only people who consistently make money from these markets (not in them) are the enablers—Betfair, Bet Angel, PokerStars, Pepperstone, etc. A quick look at Bet Angel's finances over the past few years shows they've made over half a million from punters, all while having zero market exposure. Someone's winning, but it’s not us...

Long story short, always be acutely aware of who is incentivized to act in a certain way—and more importantly, who stands to profit from it. Peter's YouTube videos, where he casually says, "Just click here and make £3," seem innocent enough. I mean, who’s ever been scammed by a middle-aged white guy, right? He always wins, and it’s only small amounts!

YouTube probably has petabytes of videos just like this, featuring different men and different markets. But they all boil down to the same reductive formula:

Buy my course. Buy my book. Buy my software.

If you’re just starting out and you think you can make money in any of these environments, what you’re really saying is, "I believe I can beat 80%+ of other market participants" But if you really think about it, mathematically, you can’t. If we could all just turn up and consistently take a few ticks out of every market, there would be no market!!!

So, here's my advice: Save yourself thousands of hours, money, and stress. Withdraw what you have left on the exchange and close your account.

Why post the BA Limited credit report ?

That relates to profit of the company and not how much Peter has made over the years trading himself as he wouldn’t put that through the company and be liable for tax on it.

In the UK there is no tax liability on personal sports trading. Although there might be be on sports spread betting.

A very strange post by someone who has probably lost his pants to the mad bomber and has shit rolling down the back of his legs.

Go cry somewhere else and get yourself some nappies.

[onis]

Why post the BA Limited credit report ?

That relates to profit of the company and not how much Peter has made over the years trading himself as he wouldn’t put that through the company and be liable for tax on it.

In the UK there is no tax liability on personal sports trading. Although there might be be on sports spread betting.

A very strange post by someone who has probably lost his pants to the mad bomber and has shit rolling down the back of his legs.

Go cry somewhere else and get yourself some nappies.

Are you mentally retarded? Where did I suggest that Peters was trading profits? You are the walking embodiment of a strawman. That is the money being made from people's subscriptions on this site. The point is, its a nice straight line, unlike most people's accounts.

#BeTheCasino

[Michael5482]

Why post the BA Limited credit report ?

That relates to profit of the company and not how much Peter has made over the years trading himself as he wouldn’t put that through the company and be liable for tax on it.

In the UK there is no tax liability on personal sports trading. Although there might be be on sports spread betting.

A very strange post by someone who has probably lost his pants to the mad bomber and has shit rolling down the back of his legs.

Go cry somewhere else and get yourself some nappies.

Are you mentally retarded? Where did I suggest that Peters was trading profits? You are the walking embodiment of a strawman. That is the money being made from people's subscriptions on this site. The point is, its a nice straight line, unlike most people's accounts.

#BeTheCasino

You don't seem very good at answering questions but I'll ask a few more?

And what's wrong with that? Peter has has seen a gap in the market and created business from it whilst providing a fantastic product to assist those who wish to trade/gamble. Fair play to him and why should he not be rewarded for it (same goes for all the other Betfair software developers not just Peter)

What software did you use for your crypto trading? Is their profit a nice straight line from peoples subscriptions compared to people's accounts, did you take umbrage with them also? What about your broker taking money off you every transaction, what's their profit line look like compared to people's accounts, did you take umbrage with them also?

[Archery1969]

Why post the BA Limited credit report ?

That relates to profit of the company and not how much Peter has made over the years trading himself as he wouldn’t put that through the company and be liable for tax on it.

In the UK there is no tax liability on personal sports trading. Although there might be be on sports spread betting.

A very strange post by someone who has probably lost his pants to the mad bomber and has shit rolling down the back of his legs.

Go cry somewhere else and get yourself some nappies.

Are you mentally retarded? Where did I suggest that Peters was trading profits? You are the walking embodiment of a strawman. That is the money being made from people's subscriptions on this site. The point is, its a nice straight line, unlike most people's accounts.

#BeTheCasino

Did you lose money on here: https://www.foxybingo.com/