Lay betting/trading using "Value"

[Tallstock]

As a beginner with Lay betting/trading I am trying to understand the importance of "value".
It seems that a "value" Automation Rule Condition is an important part of a Lay automation.

It also seems that BSP (Projected SP) is one of the key factors in automating "value".
My confusion with using BSP to gauge "value" is that during the lead up to the start of the horse race I have noticed that the early BSP can vary widely with the Actual SP.

A recent Australian example was (opening) BSP 149 then 82 then 192 and just before the start the Projected SP dropped to 131.
The Betfair HUB price was 88.

The odds available, for a straight bet, on the NSW Totalizer started with Fixed Odds of 50 and the Tote was greater than 30. This looks like a candidate for a successful Lay bet/trade.

On the BA Ladder when the Projected SP was 192 there was money available to match a Lay entry at 160. At the time, this market had little available Back money.

The Lay bet was successful as the horse lost by a large number of lengths.

Was the available 160 Lay entry at Projected SP of 192 "value"?
Was it not "value" at Projected SP 131?

[jtrader]

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQs_theBasics.html


https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQ ... dOdds.html

[Anbell]

As a beginner with Lay betting/trading I am trying to understand the importance of "value".
It seems that a "value" Automation Rule Condition is an important part of a Lay automation.

It also seems that BSP (Projected SP) is one of the key factors in automating "value".
My confusion with using BSP to gauge "value" is that during the lead up to the start of the horse race I have noticed that the early BSP can vary widely with the Actual SP.

A recent Australian example was (opening) BSP 149 then 82 then 192 and just before the start the Projected SP dropped to 131.
The Betfair HUB price was 88.

The odds available, for a straight bet, on the NSW Totalizer started with Fixed Odds of 50 and the Tote was greater than 30. This looks like a candidate for a successful Lay bet/trade.

On the BA Ladder when the Projected SP was 192 there was money available to match a Lay entry at 160. At the time, this market had little available Back money.

The Lay bet was successful as the horse lost by a large number of lengths.

Was the available 160 Lay entry at Projected SP of 192 "value"?
Was it not "value" at Projected SP 131?

Projected BSP is useless for nearly every bettor. The best predictor of actual BSP is either ATB(1) or halfway between ATB & ATL.

[Tallstock]

Thank you for your replies.

Maybe I haven't explained myself very well.
I am using automation to successfully place a Lay bet/trade about 10 minutes from the start of a race.
The Actual SP is not known until after the race start however the Projected SP is known 10 minutes out in my Automation Rules.

I have a marker on my Ladders showing the Projected SP as well as an Advanced Chart tracking it's movement. I find it helpful.
My rules also collect and store the Projected SP when I initially start my automation. I can then compare the Projected SP's.

There are lots of forum posts about "value". I have not been able to find one $ example of a "value" Lay bet.

Recently there was a post about "scaling up" and the use of "value". There was even a graph from jamesedwards from 2021 showing the failure of a strategy when the stakes were doubled. I assumed they were both talking about "value" and how "value" affects the outcome.

I would like to understand, with some Lay examples. What is a "value" Lay bet using automation?
I might then be able to understand whether my above bet/trade at 160 was considered a "value" Lay bet.

[Anbell]

'Value' can mean two different things on this website.

It can mean "I bought a thing at a cheap price' in the same way that you can buy a share or a house at a cheap price. If we're talking about horses, if you think that a horse SHOULD BE priced at 10.0 but you can back it at 20.0 or lay it at 5.0 then we refer to that as a value bet.

We never know if it was actually a value bet though. Value is not an objective knowable thing.

The other way that 'value' can be used here is that we put bets into 2 categories. If we plan to trade out of our position then we dont really care about value. If we are placing a bet without planning to trade out then we are implicitly saying that we think the price is wrong, and so we refer to a single bet as a value bet.

[Anbell]

So, strangely enough, it is possible to have a value bet which is not a value.

That is, you could have a single bet (which we sometimes call a value bet) that wasnt actually a value bet (you thought that the price was wrong but the price was accurate)

[Dabbla]

You need to think of value as a % not price.
In your example ,
Was the available 160 (0.6%) Lay entry at Projected SP of 192 (0.5%) "value"?
Was it not "value" at Projected SP 131(0.8%)?

Not really a lot in it, percentage wise.

[sionascaig]

It also seems that BSP (Projected SP) is one of the key factors in automating "value".
My confusion with using BSP to gauge "value" is that during the lead up to the start of the horse race I have noticed that the early BSP can vary widely with the Actual SP.

Maybe answered your own question, i.e. early BSP can vary widely and so not a good indicator of value?

At the odds you are looking at (high) there will be very little money on the ladders and a small bet can have a huge impact.

As Anbell says, maybe other indicators are better (and you can't really tell in any one specific race unless get very lucky!)...

Personally I don't worry about SP to much when placing lays but like to capture it on ladders just to see if I managed to beat it (just as an indicator that the lays bets made were in the right ballpark)..

And at the risk of stating the obvious: don't "take" money, just "offer" to be much more likely in the value range...

[Tallstock]

You need to think of value as a % not price.
In your example ,
Was the available 160 (0.6%) Lay entry at Projected SP of 192 (0.5%) "value"?
Was it not "value" at Projected SP 131(0.8%)?

Not really a lot in it, percentage wise.

Thank you.
With 0.6% better than 0.5% the answer seems to be YES it was "value". As the price moved up from 160 towards 192 a small green up was possible
With 0.6% worse than 0.8% the answer is YES it was "not value". As the price moved down from 160 towards 131 a small loss was possible.
The difficulty always appears to be getting matched in illiquid markets.

[Tallstock]

It also seems that BSP (Projected SP) is one of the key factors in automating "value".
My confusion with using BSP to gauge "value" is that during the lead up to the start of the horse race I have noticed that the early BSP can vary widely with the Actual SP.

Maybe answered your own question, i.e. early BSP can vary widely and so not a good indicator of value?

At the odds you are looking at (high) there will be very little money on the ladders and a small bet can have a huge impact.

As Anbell says, maybe other indicators are better (and you can't really tell in any one specific race unless get very lucky!)...

Personally I don't worry about SP to much when placing lays but like to capture it on ladders just to see if I managed to beat it (just as an indicator that the lays bets made were in the right ballpark)..

And at the risk of stating the obvious: don't "take" money, just "offer" to be much more likely in the value range...

Thank you.
Being in the "right ballpark" is very important to me as I learn how to scale up bets/trades.
Getting matched is something I need to work on.

[Tallstock]

So, strangely enough, it is possible to have a value bet which is not a value.

That is, you could have a single bet (which we sometimes call a value bet) that wasnt actually a value bet (you thought that the price was wrong but the price was accurate)

Two valid answers. Thank you.
That explains why the whole subject of "value" is confusing to me.