Am I just gambling on Correct Score? Or am I trading?

[kikiwillmo88]

Hello all,

Back to sports trading after about a 5-year break. Have been trading Stocks and indices in the meantime (still do in the afternoons).

I have a sample of 40 trades and am €257 in the green from €25 to €30 stakes.

I am trading correct score markets with under/over for 'insurance'. I trade teams with low XGs and cover 4 scores ( e.g 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1) and lay the relevant unders markets in case I'm way off (I look for 'value' on usually the over 3.5s). I then do the same with high XG teams/fixtures and focus on the 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2 and the lower under/overs. In game I'm managing the bets/trades by moving liability as and when goals go in, trading out at half time if things are going against me. I am also only profitable on matches I watch (maybe that's my edge, reading the game?).

My question is am I trading or gambling? I ask this because I've been so long out of the game my psychology here is a bit off. I seldom let losers run (maybe 1 or two at the beginning whilst I'm gathering the data set), I feel in control and have no issue with cutting losers and letting winners run (in the fixtures with high XG will often move liability so the bigger scores have bigger returns).

What do people think? Would love to hear some feedback.

Thanks

[Fugazi]

Hello all,

Back to sports trading after about a 5-year break. Have been trading Stocks and indices in the meantime (still do in the afternoons).

I have a sample of 40 trades and am €257 in the green from €25 to €30 stakes.

I am trading correct score markets with under/over for 'insurance'. I trade teams with low XGs and cover 4 scores ( e.g 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1) and lay the relevant unders markets in case I'm way off (I look for 'value' on usually the over 3.5s). I then do the same with high XG teams/fixtures and focus on the 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2 and the lower under/overs. In game I'm managing the bets/trades by moving liability as and when goals go in, trading out at half time if things are going against me. I am also only profitable on matches I watch (maybe that's my edge, reading the game?).

My question is am I trading or gambling? I ask this because I've been so long out of the game my psychology here is a bit off. I seldom let losers run (maybe 1 or two at the beginning whilst I'm gathering the data set), I feel in control and have no issue with cutting losers and letting winners run (in the fixtures with high XG will often move liability so the bigger scores have bigger returns).

What do people think? Would love to hear some feedback.

Thanks

Do you have strict rules you are following?

If you have rules, you are trading. If you don't have strict definitions of "cutting losers" than sooner or later you'll mess up.

What you could do is think about how you could turn this into an automation. That will help you clearly define rules to follow.

Then, reassess when you have a sample size of 1000

[kikiwillmo88]

Thanks.

Yes I have rules. As well as pre determined exit points.

[Fugazi]

Thanks.

Yes I have rules. As well as pre determined exit points.

In which case then just a case of collecting a bigger sample size

[Euler]

Hello all,

Back to sports trading after about a 5-year break. Have been trading Stocks and indices in the meantime (still do in the afternoons).

I have a sample of 40 trades and am €257 in the green from €25 to €30 stakes.

I am trading correct score markets with under/over for 'insurance'. I trade teams with low XGs and cover 4 scores ( e.g 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1) and lay the relevant unders markets in case I'm way off (I look for 'value' on usually the over 3.5s). I then do the same with high XG teams/fixtures and focus on the 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2 and the lower under/overs. In game I'm managing the bets/trades by moving liability as and when goals go in, trading out at half time if things are going against me. I am also only profitable on matches I watch (maybe that's my edge, reading the game?).

My question is am I trading or gambling? I ask this because I've been so long out of the game my psychology here is a bit off. I seldom let losers run (maybe 1 or two at the beginning whilst I'm gathering the data set), I feel in control and have no issue with cutting losers and letting winners run (in the fixtures with high XG will often move liability so the bigger scores have bigger returns).

What do people think? Would love to hear some feedback.

Thanks

Honestly, it sounds more like trading than gambling. You’ve got a structured strategy, you’re cutting out of bad positions quickly, and you’ve got a way to hedge (using over/unders) when you’re unsure. The fact that you do better when actually watching the game and making decisions based on what you see suggests you’re adding genuine skill and reading the flow of play, not just crossing your fingers. Gamblers tend to hold onto hope, while traders adapt, manage risk, and stay flexible. Keep gathering data, refining your approach, and maintaining discipline—you’re basically doing what proper traders do.

[Michael5482]

Thanks.

Yes I have rules. As well as pre determined exit points.

Check how the trades fair without the insurance that should start to point you in the right direction, insurance will just muddy the waters and may have you believing you have something when you don't or vice versa of course.

Basically ditch the insurance it tells you nothing, your basically saying I don't think this bet is any good so I'm going to insure against it while also saying I think this bet is good but I'm going to insure it anyway, you either have a value bet or you don't but that will play out over the longer term.

[conduirez]

Thanks.

Yes I have rules. As well as pre determined exit points.

Check how the trades fair without the insurance that should start to point you in the right direction, insurance will just muddy the waters and may have you believing you have something when you don't or vice versa of course.

Basically ditch the insurance it tells you nothing, your basically saying I don't think this bet is any good so I'm going to insure against it while also saying I think this bet is good but I'm going to insure it anyway, you either have a value bet or you don't but that will play out over the longer term.

I have to say trading is buying a commodity and selling that commodity hopefully at a profit. Betting on some outcome is basically punting, however there is something in between we call hedging, I think Michael has hit the nail on the head, you are Hedging.

[tiyoun]

Agree with ditching the insurance, never understood it. If you’re backing low scores because you think value is with a low scoring game, then overs isn’t going to offer value as cover and vice versa. Better to just lower your stakes to account for larger variance.

[Michael5482]

Personally I see no value in insuring yourself against what is a short term position and sports markets are very short term, a bet isn't an asset that you own long term and trading or not you still have to place bets to make a trade.

It's not like insuring an asset like you do with house insurance for example, paying £20 a month to insure a 100k+ asset now that makes sense to me. Paying x to insure against a potential loss of y in a short term betting market makes no sense to me, however I see psychological advantages of insurance to reduce looses which could boost confidence but at the same time impact winners.

I've not seen any evidence form anyone that insurance works, but kudos to anyone who has it working it'd be interesting so see someone long-term profitable using insurance v same results removing the insurance.

[Kai]

My question is am I trading or gambling?

Not sure if you meant actual gambling or simply value betting, but you are definitely trying to trade (around value)

In any case if you're into CS specialty you might want to give this chap a follow, seemed a good trader iirc : https://x.com/TraderDeclan

Think they may have a Discord group going, those can drastically accelerate your progress should you find the right one

Or they could potentially derail you as well should you find the wrong ones I suppose