Two questions:
1. I noticed something called "reduction factor" in the list of Preset Information in ladder settings. Not really sure what that is. I asked AI and it replied:
"In horse racing, the reduction factor is a percentage used to adjust the odds of a horse based on the amount of money wagered, ensuring that the total payout remains balanced and the bookmaker's margin is maintained."
Still don't understand that, betfair isn't a bookmaker?! Would appreciate it if someone could maybe explain a bit better, as I want to work out if it's useful information when assessing racing markets?
2. Handicapping - I know horses carry more weight when they are handicapped, but is there a way to get that figure into the ladder information area? I can't see it as an option in 'Preset Information'.
thanks
Reduction Factor & Handicapping
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ShaunWhite
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Reduction factor is what used to be called a Rule4 deduction at the bookies.
Basically, if a horse is withdrawn then the chance of others winning is increased (price is reduced).
The size varies because if an even money horse is withdrawn everyone's chances improve a lot, if it's an outsider then their chances doesn't change much.
https://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Rules.and.Regulations/
Basically, if a horse is withdrawn then the chance of others winning is increased (price is reduced).
The size varies because if an even money horse is withdrawn everyone's chances improve a lot, if it's an outsider then their chances doesn't change much.
https://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Rules.and.Regulations/
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Tue Dec 31, 2024 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jamesedwards
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You still need a reduction factor to protect layers in the same way it exists as Rule 4 to protect bookmakers.
Betfair Ts and Cs:
14.6 Betfair Non-Runner Rule
Betfair's non-runner rule relates to the adjustment of odds on bets already matched when a horse in a race is declared a non-runner. In order to make the adjustment Betfair applies a reduction factor to the remaining runners. The reduction factor allocated to a non-runner is a calculation (the details of which are described below) of that horse's chances of winning (or being placed, etc as appropriate) and is applied to bets already matched on the other runners in the relevant market or markets.
Any horse listed when the relevant market is loaded which does not subsequently come under starter's orders is deemed to be a non-runner.
When the market is loaded each horse is given a 'reduction factor', based on a forecast price, which is expressed as a percentage. These reduction factors may be updated periodically at the discretion of Betfair based on trading in the market, but after approximately 15 minutes (approximately 5 minutes for Australian and US markets) from the scheduled 'off' time of a given race, they will be updated only in exceptional circumstances. The current reduction factor percentage for each horse can be viewed on the 'info' page on the Betfair website or by asking the Helpdesk.
Accurate reduction factors will only be applied to selections in the event of a non-runner. Once a non-runner is declared each selection in the market will be given an appropriate reduction factor. Reduction factors can be amended at Betfair’s discretion at any time throughout the market life cycle (including post-race).
For Australian racing, reduction factors may be updated periodically at the discretion of Betfair based on trading in the market, but after approximately five minutes from the scheduled off time of a given race they will be updated only in exceptional circumstances.
Reductions will be made to both win and place markets but applied differently (as described below), and horses will have a different reduction factor for each market.
As soon as Betfair becomes aware that a horse is an official non-runner or a highly likely non-runner, following a statement to the press from connections, the following will happen:
All matched bets on that horse will be void and the horse will be removed from the market.
In the win market: if the reduction factor of the non-runner is 2.5% or greater, the traded price of all the matched bets on the remaining horses will be reduced by an amount equal to the non-runner's final reduction factor and all the unmatched offers to lay will be cancelled. If the non-runner's reduction factor is less than 2.5%, reductions will not be applied and unmatched bets will not be cancelled.
In the place market the reduction factor of all non-runners will be applied (even if less than 2.5%) and the potential winnings in relation to matched bets on the remaining horses will be reduced by an amount equal to the non-runner's final reduction factor. Only if the non-runner's reduction factor is 4.0% or greater will all the unmatched offers to lay be cancelled.
All the reduction factors on the remaining horses will be adjusted to reflect their improved chance of winning.
Reduction factors are not applied to bets which are struck in-play. However, if a market is turned in-play prematurely by error (or, for example, there is a false start), all bets matched during this time will be subject to any later reduction factor, provided the market is turned out of play before the race commences. In the event of a late withdrawal, Betfair reserves the right to remove the runner after completion of the race. In this case only those bets matched prior to the off will be affected by a reduction factor.
In the event of a non-runner being removed from a race in error or following incorrect information regarding a runner’s participation, Betfair will reinstate both the runner and all previously matched bets associated with that runner. All bets made between the time of withdrawal and reinstatement will be void in both the place market and the win market. The reduction factor applied to matched bets at the time of withdrawal will be reversed and the original prices will become valid.
Any non-runners will be removed from the relevant markets in the order in which they are brought to Betfair's attention. If Betfair becomes aware of more than one non-runner at the same time, it will remove the non-runners from the relevant markets in racecard order.
If a runner is not included in a market because of an error or because of incorrect information regarding a runner’s participation, Betfair reserve the right to introduce the missing runner into the market at any time prior to settlement (even after the race has been run), provided that Betfair has determined that the missing runner is not a material runner (i.e. a selection with a reduction factor of approx. 2.5% or less in the win market). In such circumstances, all pre-play unmatched and matched bets will stand, however if the runner is not introduced before the start of the race, all in-play bets will be void. However, if the missing runner is deemed to be a material runner, then the malformed market will be void and a new market will be loaded where possible.
14.7 How the Reductions are applied for Exchange markets
In the win market, reductions will be made on the traded price.
For example: if the non-runner's final reduction factor is 25% the traded price on all previously matched bets on other horses will be reduced by 25% - traded price of 8.0 would become 6.0 etc. And these might be further reduced if another horse is subsequently declared a non-runner.
In the EW Market, reductions will be made on the traded win price. The advertised place terms will then apply to the revised win prices.
For example: if the non-runner's final reduction factor is 25% the traded price on all previously matched bets on other horses will be reduced by 25% - - traded price of 8.0 would become 6.0. If the each Way terms were 1/5th odds for 3 places, the corresponding price for the Place portion of the bet would reduce from 2.4 to 2.0.
In the place market, reductions will be made to the potential winnings on the bet only, and not the traded price.
For example: if the non-runner's final reduction factor is 25% the potential winnings on all previously matched bets on the other horses will be reduced by 25% - a traded price of 8.0 would become 6.25. For example a £10 bet on a horse to be placed at a traded price of 8.0 would provide winnings of £70. If there is a non-runner with a reduction factor of 25% in the race, that factor will be applied to the £70 of potential winnings leaving potential winnings of £52.50. Therefore the revised traded price will be 6.25.
The traded price may be further reduced if any other horse(s) is subsequently declared a non-runner, however odds cannot be reduced below 1.01.
Reserves: A reserve runner may appear in the relevant markets but will have a non-applicable reduction factor until Betfair has received confirmation that it is a confirmed runner, in which case an applicable reduction factor may apply to it.
For the avoidance of doubt, any reduction factor applicable to a non-runner replaced by a reserve, will be applied to all bets struck on the relevant markets, prior to the removal from those markets of such non-runner by Betfair. Likewise, should a reserve runner become a confirmed runner but subsequently become a non-runner, any reduction factor applicable to such non-runner will be applied to all bets struck on the relevant markets, prior to the removal from those markets of such non-runner by Betfair.
Betfair Ts and Cs:
14.6 Betfair Non-Runner Rule
Betfair's non-runner rule relates to the adjustment of odds on bets already matched when a horse in a race is declared a non-runner. In order to make the adjustment Betfair applies a reduction factor to the remaining runners. The reduction factor allocated to a non-runner is a calculation (the details of which are described below) of that horse's chances of winning (or being placed, etc as appropriate) and is applied to bets already matched on the other runners in the relevant market or markets.
Any horse listed when the relevant market is loaded which does not subsequently come under starter's orders is deemed to be a non-runner.
When the market is loaded each horse is given a 'reduction factor', based on a forecast price, which is expressed as a percentage. These reduction factors may be updated periodically at the discretion of Betfair based on trading in the market, but after approximately 15 minutes (approximately 5 minutes for Australian and US markets) from the scheduled 'off' time of a given race, they will be updated only in exceptional circumstances. The current reduction factor percentage for each horse can be viewed on the 'info' page on the Betfair website or by asking the Helpdesk.
Accurate reduction factors will only be applied to selections in the event of a non-runner. Once a non-runner is declared each selection in the market will be given an appropriate reduction factor. Reduction factors can be amended at Betfair’s discretion at any time throughout the market life cycle (including post-race).
For Australian racing, reduction factors may be updated periodically at the discretion of Betfair based on trading in the market, but after approximately five minutes from the scheduled off time of a given race they will be updated only in exceptional circumstances.
Reductions will be made to both win and place markets but applied differently (as described below), and horses will have a different reduction factor for each market.
As soon as Betfair becomes aware that a horse is an official non-runner or a highly likely non-runner, following a statement to the press from connections, the following will happen:
All matched bets on that horse will be void and the horse will be removed from the market.
In the win market: if the reduction factor of the non-runner is 2.5% or greater, the traded price of all the matched bets on the remaining horses will be reduced by an amount equal to the non-runner's final reduction factor and all the unmatched offers to lay will be cancelled. If the non-runner's reduction factor is less than 2.5%, reductions will not be applied and unmatched bets will not be cancelled.
In the place market the reduction factor of all non-runners will be applied (even if less than 2.5%) and the potential winnings in relation to matched bets on the remaining horses will be reduced by an amount equal to the non-runner's final reduction factor. Only if the non-runner's reduction factor is 4.0% or greater will all the unmatched offers to lay be cancelled.
All the reduction factors on the remaining horses will be adjusted to reflect their improved chance of winning.
Reduction factors are not applied to bets which are struck in-play. However, if a market is turned in-play prematurely by error (or, for example, there is a false start), all bets matched during this time will be subject to any later reduction factor, provided the market is turned out of play before the race commences. In the event of a late withdrawal, Betfair reserves the right to remove the runner after completion of the race. In this case only those bets matched prior to the off will be affected by a reduction factor.
In the event of a non-runner being removed from a race in error or following incorrect information regarding a runner’s participation, Betfair will reinstate both the runner and all previously matched bets associated with that runner. All bets made between the time of withdrawal and reinstatement will be void in both the place market and the win market. The reduction factor applied to matched bets at the time of withdrawal will be reversed and the original prices will become valid.
Any non-runners will be removed from the relevant markets in the order in which they are brought to Betfair's attention. If Betfair becomes aware of more than one non-runner at the same time, it will remove the non-runners from the relevant markets in racecard order.
If a runner is not included in a market because of an error or because of incorrect information regarding a runner’s participation, Betfair reserve the right to introduce the missing runner into the market at any time prior to settlement (even after the race has been run), provided that Betfair has determined that the missing runner is not a material runner (i.e. a selection with a reduction factor of approx. 2.5% or less in the win market). In such circumstances, all pre-play unmatched and matched bets will stand, however if the runner is not introduced before the start of the race, all in-play bets will be void. However, if the missing runner is deemed to be a material runner, then the malformed market will be void and a new market will be loaded where possible.
14.7 How the Reductions are applied for Exchange markets
In the win market, reductions will be made on the traded price.
For example: if the non-runner's final reduction factor is 25% the traded price on all previously matched bets on other horses will be reduced by 25% - traded price of 8.0 would become 6.0 etc. And these might be further reduced if another horse is subsequently declared a non-runner.
In the EW Market, reductions will be made on the traded win price. The advertised place terms will then apply to the revised win prices.
For example: if the non-runner's final reduction factor is 25% the traded price on all previously matched bets on other horses will be reduced by 25% - - traded price of 8.0 would become 6.0. If the each Way terms were 1/5th odds for 3 places, the corresponding price for the Place portion of the bet would reduce from 2.4 to 2.0.
In the place market, reductions will be made to the potential winnings on the bet only, and not the traded price.
For example: if the non-runner's final reduction factor is 25% the potential winnings on all previously matched bets on the other horses will be reduced by 25% - a traded price of 8.0 would become 6.25. For example a £10 bet on a horse to be placed at a traded price of 8.0 would provide winnings of £70. If there is a non-runner with a reduction factor of 25% in the race, that factor will be applied to the £70 of potential winnings leaving potential winnings of £52.50. Therefore the revised traded price will be 6.25.
The traded price may be further reduced if any other horse(s) is subsequently declared a non-runner, however odds cannot be reduced below 1.01.
Reserves: A reserve runner may appear in the relevant markets but will have a non-applicable reduction factor until Betfair has received confirmation that it is a confirmed runner, in which case an applicable reduction factor may apply to it.
For the avoidance of doubt, any reduction factor applicable to a non-runner replaced by a reserve, will be applied to all bets struck on the relevant markets, prior to the removal from those markets of such non-runner by Betfair. Likewise, should a reserve runner become a confirmed runner but subsequently become a non-runner, any reduction factor applicable to such non-runner will be applied to all bets struck on the relevant markets, prior to the removal from those markets of such non-runner by Betfair.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10355
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Is Reduction Factor useful? .... Not really, apart from explaining any anomalies between your logs and the settled figures.
Handicapping/weight .... How do you intend to use that knowledge? If you're planning to calculate fair value prices then that's a world of pain. The legend that is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Benter allegedly used over 120 parameters/attributes/characteristics to work that one out.
And here's how .....https://gwern.net/doc/statistics/decisi ... benter.pdf
If you're new to gambling then David Walsh has an interesting story too https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4lt8M5jR6E
Handicapping/weight .... How do you intend to use that knowledge? If you're planning to calculate fair value prices then that's a world of pain. The legend that is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Benter allegedly used over 120 parameters/attributes/characteristics to work that one out.
And here's how .....https://gwern.net/doc/statistics/decisi ... benter.pdf
If you're new to gambling then David Walsh has an interesting story too https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4lt8M5jR6E
Aaaah, thanks very much. I have vague memories of 'Rule4'. So that's not something worth showing to get a picture of a market. The weighting/handicapping would be though I'd thinkShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2024 2:22 pmReduction factor is what used to be called a Rule4 deduction at the bookies.
Basically, if a horse is withdrawn then the chance of others winning is increased (price is reduced).
The size varies because if an even money horse is withdrawn everyone's chances improve a lot, if it's an outsider then their chances doesn't change much.
https://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Rules.and.Regulations/
Thanksjamesedwards wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2024 2:23 pmYou still need a reduction factor to protect layers in the same way it exists as Rule 4 to protect bookmakers.
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jamesedwards
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Dublin_Flyer
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You can store a value as text which would be the selections weight, then create a custom column in the ladder settings editor using the stored value.
You'll probably need to change the font size or colour if you want to make it more noticeable. (That's a 168 in the first one, I clipped too much off)
You'll probably need to change the font size or colour if you want to make it more noticeable. (That's a 168 in the first one, I clipped too much off)
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Sorry, what's this?
Thanks , sorry I am new to this. Not sure i understand that. i found the 'additional information' setting, turned that on, and have trainer and jockey name displayed at top of ladders, cool feature! I was wondering if i can somehow (without a lot of complex manual coding/setup) just display the handicap value, assuming there is such a thing? (I thought handicap was extra pounds put on the horse)Dublin_Flyer wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2024 4:44 pmYou can store a value as text which would be the selections weight, then create a custom column in the ladder settings editor using the stored value.
You'll probably need to change the font size or colour if you want to make it more noticeable. (That's a 168 in the first one, I clipped too much off)
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jamesedwards
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https://www.betangel.com/user-guide/imp ... 20required.Blondie wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 8:38 pmSorry, what's this?
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Dublin_Flyer
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It's not so much that extra pounds are on the horse, moreso that one horse is set the highest weight, and other horses are allocated less weight to effectively handicap the favourite as they will carry more weight. Handicaps are restricted to different bands based on the horses official rating to prevent the best of the best racing against the worst of the worst basically.Blondie wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2025 8:41 pmThanks , sorry I am new to this. Not sure i understand that. i found the 'additional information' setting, turned that on, and have trainer and jockey name displayed at top of ladders, cool feature! I was wondering if i can somehow (without a lot of complex manual coding/setup) just display the handicap value, assuming there is such a thing? (I thought handicap was extra pounds put on the horse)Dublin_Flyer wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2024 4:44 pmYou can store a value as text which would be the selections weight, then create a custom column in the ladder settings editor using the stored value.
You'll probably need to change the font size or colour if you want to make it more noticeable. (That's a 168 in the first one, I clipped too much off)
From the 1.10 Ayr tomorrow you can see the race is restricted to 5 year olds and older, and from a rating of 0 up to 115. Imaginary Dragon has a rating of 115 so gets top weight of 12st. Chumlee only has a rating of 89 which is 26lbs lighter so carries 26lb less at only 10st 2lb. The 2.15 Ayr is similar in that the highest rated entry gets top weight, next horse has a rating 8lb lower so carries 8lb less than top weight, next one is 10lb lower so carries 10lb less than top weight. The 1.40 Ayr is one of those races that make handicapping difficult without a good degree of automation rules. The rating is 0-100 and top weight is 100 rated. From the form you can see Achnamara won 7 days ago so carries an extra weight penalty (7ex beside the weight) However beside the jockey you see a 5 showing the jockey is an amateur/conditional/non-professional and will reduce the total weight by 5lbs.
Likewise you see runners 3 and 6 have 7lb allowances on their jockeys so they will carry 7lb less than their listed weight so 11st7lb and 11st6lb respectively. The handicapping is equally deep and complicated throughout flat, national hunt, and all weather. Some races have a weight allowance for younger horses running against older horses, others have an allowance for female horses running against males, probably other things I can't think of.
The problem with handicapping is you're relying on the trainer/jockey/owners to run their horse true to the best of their ability every time.
A) In mid-grade races a jockey could be instructed to travel safe, make an effort, but don't win or don't win by far if you're gonna win.
B) Alternatively they could be told to keep at the back of the pack and make a push when it's too late.
Result of A could be getting the horses rating increased a bit, but not enough to hamper it with a big weight increase in a bigger (cash) race.
Result of B could be getting the horse looked at as an outsider in a bigger race, so getting bigger prices for a gamble.
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wearthefoxhat
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Copy and Paste into Chat GPT and ask it to produce a formatted table for the data. Don't think anyone could fully replicate Bill Benter's approach, but it's possible to produce your own version on UK's All Weather surfaces, U.S dirt tracks and in Hong Kong.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2024 3:24 pm
Handicapping/weight .... How do you intend to use that knowledge? If you're planning to calculate fair value prices then that's a world of pain. The legend that is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Benter allegedly used over 120 parameters/attributes/characteristics to work that one out.
And here's how .....https://gwern.net/doc/statistics/decisi ... benter.pdf
The handicap mark is one of the most contentious and over looked aspects in horse racing, as there are many trainers that run their horses ,until it drops to a certain mark, that they want, and then set them out to win. The handicapper knows this goes on, but have to follow certain rules.
However, when they put a horse up for not winning a race, they don't have to justify why to the public, so things can balance out over time. (A standard reply would be on the lines of collateral form improvement)