Making a trading plan

[240Volts]

Good morning people ,

Just wondering I'm trying to make a trading plan for trading the 1st half O/U 0.5 goals market with a reducing the liability

At the moment I got a strategy were I back the over 0.5 then for say a £2.50 profit and if there's no by 30 mins I cash out for a £3 lost

I've looked and PL is 17% for goals to be scored before 30mins

would you say that is that a good strategy or any ideas to make it better?

TIA

volts

[ShaunWhite]

Where's the edge? It's just backing and laying at current prices.

Eg what's the difference between your avg back price and the avg lay price, is that < or > the likelihood of a goal being scored ?

If neither of your bets are value (wouldn't be winners on their own) then 2 bets won't be either.

[240Volts]

hi

ok thanks alot

I've read about finding an edge but what exactly is it?
if I bet on a strong favourite at home would that be classed as an edge?

I wait till around 15-20 mins when the price to increase on the over 0.5 goals market and add a little more money to increase profit slightly
would that be classed as a value bet?

[ShaunWhite]

An edge is a profitable approach. The knowledge or skill that gives you an edge over others.
A value bet is one where the price you get is better than the chance of the situation happening. Or if it's a pair of bets, it's the change in price vs the chance of the thing happening that causes the move.

Eg a price halving (or doubling) isn't a value trade if that happens half the time. It needs to happen more or less than half the time.

[ShaunWhite]

if I bet on a strong favourite at home would that be classed as an edge?

At 1.1 it probably isn't value, at 3.0 it definately would be. Your 'edge' would be your ability to identify the correct price to enable you to spot mispricings.

[240Volts]

ok thanks for explaining that to me

definitely harder then just putting a trade on and hoping that previous results give you a winning trade

just out of curiosity

I haven't checked any stats yet ..... but let's say tonights game Liverpool are playing Tottenham and they are heavy favourites and and normally score after 20mins
the odds increase from 1.1 to 1.8 at the 15min mark for O 0.5 first half goals

would that be classed as a value bet?

[ShaunWhite]

ok thanks for explaining that to me

definitely harder then just putting a trade on and hoping that previous results give you a winning trade

just out of curiosity

I haven't checked any stats yet ..... but let's say tonights game Liverpool are playing Tottenham and they are heavy favourites and and normally score after 20mins
the odds increase from 1.1 to 1.8 for O 0.5 first half goals

would that be classed as a value bet?

Define normally. How much is the price decrease vs that increase ?

You need to look at how much you stand to win, how much you stand to lose, and how often that happens. Trading is the same as straight betting in that respect.

OU 0.5 is tricky as a single goal means the market is dead.

[240Volts]

ah sorry I'm not familiar with the normal movement of the odds

ok let me look more into it as I feel this market won't be profitable in the long run

thanks for you help

[jamesedwards]

Shaun speaks gold.

Assume the prices are always accurate, because they usually are. An edge could be inside info, superior game or market reading, lower latency pics/courtsiding, faster trading software - something that gives you an advantage over the rest of the market. You're very unlikely to be profitable long term by randomly trying fixed entry and exit points.

[240Volts]

thanks alot for that

I'm just finding it hard to get my head around what edge is

So when I say that I've done some research into the game and look at the probability of them scoring at a certain time.

That's just common knowledge which everyone knows so that's not classed as an edge right?



TIA

[jamesedwards]

thanks alot for that

I'm just finding it hard to get my head around what edge is

So when I say that I've done some research into the game and look at the probability of them scoring at a certain time.

That's just common knowledge which everyone knows so that's not classed as an edge right?



TIA

Difficult to say, but imo most likely not a big enough edge to beat the overround and commission, especially if it's in the more popular leagues. At least you have something to start with though. Many people starting out seem to come up with entry and exit points randomly and hope they will make a profit.

[sionascaig]

thanks alot for that

I'm just finding it hard to get my head around what edge is

So when I say that I've done some research into the game and look at the probability of them scoring at a certain time.

That's just common knowledge which everyone knows so that's not classed as an edge right?

TIA

In the above case its about price. If you have done some research and you think price should be x but market says y then, at most, one is right and that will be where "your" edge comes from.

(of course both could be wrong)

But no one really knows the right price for any specific event so its all about lots of events and being on the right side of correct most of the time & when wrong not wrong by much.

If a lot of folk see value in the market they will take it but its about opinions and the price will bounce up & down, so you can use that volatility to obtain what you think is a value position & hence your edge.

Of course the price may never get into you value range in which case just don't bet.

[Kai]

I'm just finding it hard to get my head around what edge is

It's the reason your PnL isn't random?

You have to beat someone in the market to see profit on your PnL

Results - Variance = Edge

Skill - Luck = Edge

etc

[Kai]

Results - Variance = Edge

Actually I could probably expand on that basic formula, and how to actually get there imo

1. Deepwork - Work = Progress
2. Progress - Distractions = Results
3. Results - Variance = Edge
4. Edge - Complacency = Mastery

Something along those lines makes complete and total sense to me

[240Volts]

thanks alot peeps ill research the info you provided to get a better understanding