Price moves at the off

[Nero Tulip]

Been watching a bit of greyhounds for first time in a while and posting some money into the market. Just wanted to ask any experienced dog traders out there, is there any suspicion or generally accepted idea that the market suspension can be a fraction of a second late ? Just asking because there's been several times when there's been money that comes through a very close to suspension that seems (hopefully coincidentally) quite smart - watching the race start, the backed runner is out the traps fastest. I think some of this will be to do with SP moves (?).

Ordinarily I'd chalk it up to coincidence for much longer than I have here, but there's a couple of cases of the traps malfunctioning this morning with fairly big extremely late price changes, one at central where i think the hare was running but the traps didn't work as intended, possibly didn't open.. and well, this chart was a bit of an eye opener -

Sorry for the ramble! not trying to be a theorist, that's not really me, just wondering if this has been talked about before or whether the idea is nonsense.

[Anbell]

That large looking bet is just the SP reconciliation

[jamesedwards]

This is an interesting theory because no matter what I do on greyhound SP betting it loses more money than it should.

Betting all the favs @ SP loses more than commission, and I switch it around to laying all the favs and the sames losses occur. Only £1 stakes so shouldn't be affecting the prices too much. This would answer my conundrum.

[Nero Tulip]

This is an interesting theory because no matter what I do on greyhound SP betting it loses more money than it should.

Betting all the favs @ SP loses more than commission, and I switch it around to laying all the favs and the sames losses occur. Only £1 stakes so shouldn't be affecting the prices too much. This would answer my conundrum.

thanks for that James, very interesting and doesn't surprise me. That moment at the off is certainly a soft spot for shenanigans if it's possible. There's definitely times when it is SP related which is fine, but... there is just something a little fishy to some. And as I say, I'm very much a default sceptic on this sort of thing.

[ShaunWhite]

Betting all the favs @ SP loses more than commission, and I switch it around to laying all the favs and the sames losses occur. Only £1 stakes so shouldn't be affecting the prices too much. This would answer my conundrum.

Betting every greyhound fav in 2024, in markets with an overround between 90 and 111 (49,000 races).

It's only 0EV over long periods, you'd have been till May waiting to break even, briefly.

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Then deduct the commission...

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Overround distribution: Average 100.24%

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[ShaunWhite]

And the rest, sorted by order of favouritism.

Gross

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Net

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[jamesedwards]

Thanks Shaun. That is really useful data. Do you by chance have the p&l - commission + half of commission paid plus half of implied commission numbers?

I'm only interesting in greyhound racing for commission churning purposes.

[Fugazi]

Heres a backtest of every greyhound ever at SP:

viewtopic.php?p=356591&hilit=Backtest+e ... nd#p356591