What is going on with in play prices !?

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Brovashift
Posts: 542
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

Has anyone else noticed how the prices in play no longer reflect what is actually happening in the race?

You've got front runners travelling and jumping nice, but are on a massive drift... or runners held up at the back being slapped and cajoled and hard ridden who's price is steaming in..! WTF :lol:

I have learnt to trust what I am seeing and not be bullied out the market, I have literally just now mopped up loads of back money on Wrappedinrubies I think it was, at Bangor, because the market refused to drift it, even though it was getting slapped and pushed from about half way lol. Shame it was all £1's and £2's...

But still, it seems to be happening multiple times a day now. has anyone any ideas as to what and why this is happening?
Is it automation, or people trading without live pictures, using data or something?

Absolutely bonkers! Someone must be losing money, surely?
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ForFolksSake
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Joined: Sat May 11, 2024 2:51 pm

Brovashift wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 5:18 pm
Has anyone else noticed how the prices in play no longer reflect what is actually happening in the race?

You've got front runners travelling and jumping nice, but are on a massive drift... or runners held up at the back being slapped and cajoled and hard ridden who's price is steaming in..! WTF :lol:

I have learnt to trust what I am seeing and not be bullied out the market, I have literally just now mopped up loads of back money on Wrappedinrubies I think it was, at Bangor, because the market refused to drift it, even though it was getting slapped and pushed from about half way lol. Shame it was all £1's and £2's...

But still, it seems to be happening multiple times a day now. has anyone any ideas as to what and why this is happening?
Is it automation, or people trading without live pictures, using data or something?

Absolutely bonkers! Someone must be losing money, surely?
That would make it too easy if the prices reflected exactly what was happening 🤔
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Brovashift
Posts: 542
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ForFolksSake wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 6:11 pm
Brovashift wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 5:18 pm
Has anyone else noticed how the prices in play no longer reflect what is actually happening in the race?

You've got front runners travelling and jumping nice, but are on a massive drift... or runners held up at the back being slapped and cajoled and hard ridden who's price is steaming in..! WTF :lol:

I have learnt to trust what I am seeing and not be bullied out the market, I have literally just now mopped up loads of back money on Wrappedinrubies I think it was, at Bangor, because the market refused to drift it, even though it was getting slapped and pushed from about half way lol. Shame it was all £1's and £2's...

But still, it seems to be happening multiple times a day now. has anyone any ideas as to what and why this is happening?
Is it automation, or people trading without live pictures, using data or something?

Absolutely bonkers! Someone must be losing money, surely?
That would make it too easy if the prices reflected exactly what was happening 🤔
:lol: eh? :lol:

So when you see a horse struggling to lay up your immediate thought is to back it? That must be some of your money that was gifted to me? :D
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Thebest147
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Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:01 am

The market on betfair is never to far out when it comes to odds and percentages off winning, I wouldnt' try and find logic in the illogical you will drive yourself bonkers
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ForFolksSake
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Brovashift wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 7:32 pm
ForFolksSake wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 6:11 pm
Brovashift wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 5:18 pm
Has anyone else noticed how the prices in play no longer reflect what is actually happening in the race?

You've got front runners travelling and jumping nice, but are on a massive drift... or runners held up at the back being slapped and cajoled and hard ridden who's price is steaming in..! WTF :lol:

I have learnt to trust what I am seeing and not be bullied out the market, I have literally just now mopped up loads of back money on Wrappedinrubies I think it was, at Bangor, because the market refused to drift it, even though it was getting slapped and pushed from about half way lol. Shame it was all £1's and £2's...

But still, it seems to be happening multiple times a day now. has anyone any ideas as to what and why this is happening?
Is it automation, or people trading without live pictures, using data or something?

Absolutely bonkers! Someone must be losing money, surely?
That would make it too easy if the prices reflected exactly what was happening 🤔
:lol: eh? :lol:

So when you see a horse struggling to lay up your immediate thought is to back it? That must be some of your money that was gifted to me? :D
:lol: eh? :lol: I don't think so
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Last edited by ForFolksSake on Fri Feb 07, 2025 10:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ForFolksSake
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ForFolksSake wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 9:35 pm
Brovashift wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 7:32 pm
ForFolksSake wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 6:11 pm


That would make it too easy if the prices reflected exactly what was happening 🤔
:lol: eh? :lol:

So when you see a horse struggling to lay up your immediate thought is to back it? That must be some of your money that was gifted to me? :D
:lol: eh? :lol:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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Brovashift
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ForFolksSake wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 9:43 pm
ForFolksSake wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 9:35 pm
Brovashift wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2025 7:32 pm


:lol: eh? :lol:

So when you see a horse struggling to lay up your immediate thought is to back it? That must be some of your money that was gifted to me? :D
:lol: eh? :lol:
I need context... i don't know what you are showing me here!
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Brovashift
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As someone who has been trading in play racing almost every day for the past 2-3 years, and the fact that it is a regular discussion in my other trading group (with traders who've seen changes over the last 10 years), I can say with the upmost confidence that something has changed in the last 12 months.

Even the drone traders are noticing that they are behind the prices a lot of the time. The only in play trader I've noticed who is still consistent watches the ladders more than the drone, but even she says its a lot harder and has had to reduce her stakes.

This leads me to think that either there is a better drone outfit, maybe using better network coverage, maybe only available to the likes of Flutter traders and the likes. Or... as the waiting money a lot of the time is all small amounts it looks more like bots to me. I wouldn't say Betangel bots, something on a bigger scale.
Usually when I ask questions on here I get intelligent answers from people who know more than me, and might know something I don't. Thats why I asked the question... they must be all on holiday, waiting for the flat season to start :lol: either that or they're the ones behind the bots lol (Where's my tin foil hat :D )

Ive read through a lot of this forum over the years and read posts from some right numpties (basically straight gamblers) who were/are just throwing money at the market with no edge. It can be seen now in the comments that Peter often gets on his YouTube videos... (fuckin head in hands emoji)

I'm not going to press, but anyone who has been race reading and "manually" trading in play for a reasonable amount of time will have seen a shift in activity. 103 of us can't all be wrong!
sionascaig
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Brovashift wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:06 am

I'm not going to press, but anyone who has been race reading and "manually" trading in play for a reasonable amount of time will have seen a shift in activity. 103 of us can't all be wrong!
Strangely enough, I have started dabbling in the in-play horse markets and what you describe re following the money is exactly what I do. The logic being there are now a lot more folk using TPD / drones so will have more & faster info than me so maybe an opportunity to identify it & sit in front.

My stakes will barley register though and it remains an ongoing experiment but perhaps others doing it to (in greater scale)...
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Brovashift
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Yes TPD... I completely forgot to mention TPD.

This is also what I was thinking when talking about bots. It seems as though people (or bots) are reading something other than live pictures, which would causing crazy things to happen if the data they are using is slightly wrong e.g. delayed. I know data is faster than live pics but you do get occasions when there is a glitch in the Matrix, or someone's network is slower than ideal.
If it was something like this then it would be interesting to know how it effects someone's edge using TPD I.e. is it happening enough to affect PnL, or is any glitch negligible in the bigger picture.

There has been talk (tin foil hat) that the likes of Flutter might have there own version of data feed, faster and more reliable. I mean they're not going to slum it with us retailers are they :lol:

Like I said earlier, the girl who watches the prices more than the drone does very well. Puts on a decent liability based on available liquidity, but as she always says when money comes for 2-3 of them, one has to drift. She can't trade flat racing though so it's not a holy grail :lol:
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jamesedwards
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You'll never beat cancellers if they are on the ball as the delay gives them a 1 second head start on anybody taking prices.

Perhaps those offering positions have got more savvy about leveraging the delay in the last year or so. Its so easy to identify value on the ladder, try to take it with a low override, then watch all the value disappear before your bet hits and leaving you matching much further down than anticipated.
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Brovashift
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jamesedwards wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:57 am
You'll never beat cancellers if they are on the ball as the delay gives them a 1 second head start on anybody taking prices.

Perhaps those offering positions have got more savvy about leveraging the delay in the last year or so. Its so easy to identify value on the ladder, try to take it with a low override, then watch all the value disappear before your bet hits and leaving you matching much further down than anticipated.
This is interesting... so by having money waiting you're beating the 1sec delay, and cancelling is instant?

Not sure how this fit in with my original post re held up struggler dropping from 100>8s, but has made me think about something I've never considered before 👍
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jamesedwards
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Brovashift wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2025 11:08 am
]

This is interesting... so by having money waiting you're beating the 1sec delay, and cancelling is instant?
Yep.

By their very nature markets will get tighter and edges eroded over time. All the low hanging fruit is long gone, faster pics, drones, tpd etc, all used to put you ahead of the market but now you need them just to stay level. Now everyone's scratching around for the smaller marginal gains.
Safeway
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It all seems a mixed bag to me. Using TPD
some prices don’t make sense leaving me sitting on my hands wondering what somebody knows that I don’t. Other prices are doing what I would expect only very fast and very extreme. I have thought I have spotted certain markets where it’s slow - the betting in US racing for example can be slow and dozy and I have had some profits because of that. Just as I rely on that it’s suddenly the opposite!

Brovashift - your ladyfriend following the money…….what exactly is ‘following the money’ in this game? Let’s say everybody is backing. I assume somebody following the money is then backing too and maybe then laying off when the surplus of backers causes the price to drop? Certainly in financials following the money is buying the same stock as everybody else….?
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Brovashift
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Safeway wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2025 5:46 pm
It all seems a mixed bag to me. Using TPD
some prices don’t make sense leaving me sitting on my hands wondering what somebody knows that I don’t. Other prices are doing what I would expect only very fast and very extreme. I have thought I have spotted certain markets where it’s slow - the betting in US racing for example can be slow and dozy and I have had some profits because of that. Just as I rely on that it’s suddenly the opposite!

Brovashift - your ladyfriend following the money…….what exactly is ‘following the money’ in this game? Let’s say everybody is backing. I assume somebody following the money is then backing too and maybe then laying off when the surplus of backers causes the price to drop? Certainly in financials following the money is buying the same stock as everybody else….?
My 'lady friend' :lol: makes it sound like she's my Mrs or something lol. She's just a female, maybe I should call her 'women', who's in a trading group I'm in.

"Following the money" is simply just that. Like when you said above about prices not making sense, you are expecting price to move based on what you are seeing, either on a live feed or data or both.
That was also my point earlier in the thread, prices doing random things that make no sense compared to what might be happening in a race. After all, prices do generally react to what is happening in the event, apart from those weird occasions when there seems to be a glitch in the Matrix that we've both witnessed.

While the woman in my trading group (and others) are watching the race out of the corner of their eye, she is 80% focused on the ladders and watching the money. If you watch the money on the ladders, maybe with the sound off so not influenced by commentators, you'll see bigger money appear and disappear all the time, and you can start to see repeating patterns.

Today was a much better day than earlier in the week, seemed more normal, so I'm thinking maybe the random price movements I witnessed was more poor liquidity, and in a low grade race, or something. I will have to start recording my screen again to see if I can catch it.

Today I tried what was suggested earlier, offering prices and cancelling, and noticed in most of the races for the first half of the day, either the 1st or 2nd fav had a layer staking £311 (I don't know if it was a single layer, but it's the story I was telling myself), money kept jumping infront of it but this £311 never moved from the price it was offering, like its that price or nothing. Sure enough it was eventually taken and as soon as it was the price sprung up like an elastic band, regardless of what was happening in the race.
They only seemed to be interested in the first half of the race as well. And range edges obviously!

Personally I generally only lay over jumps (as does the woman in my trading group)

See what the liquidity is like tomorrow and set your refresh to 200ms or slower and see if you can spot anything tomorrow. Ignore all the small money as I think that's just noise.
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