US Masters 2025

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Euler
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Rory McIlroy: McIlroy has mentioned a minor right elbow issue following a recent event. Posts on X from late March indicated he might seek treatment in the week leading up to the Masters. While this suggests some doubt, there's no confirmation he will miss the tournament, and given his strong form this year (with wins at Pebble Beach and The Players Championship), he’s widely expected to compete unless the injury worsens significantly.

Xander Schauffele: Schauffele has been dealing with a rib injury earlier this season, which caused him to miss a month of play. While he’s back competing, his recent performances have been inconsistent (e.g., finishing last among those who made the cut at The Players Championship). There’s no explicit indication he’ll miss the Masters, but his current form and recovery status could cast some doubt on his readiness.
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Euler
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Been doing some analysis on volumes on the US Masters. I have data going back to 2004!

There is a curious bump in volumes at 2pm each day in the run up to the tournament. I guess people like to have a few quid on in their lunchbreak.
Mike Oxlong
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Happy Masters Day all. Where do people follow live scores / player locations on course etc.? Been looking around and haven’t found anything solid.
Cheers
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Euler
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First piece of US Masters magic right here: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VDHVCa7zA0
jakmar86
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Mike Oxlong wrote:
Thu Apr 10, 2025 8:35 am
Happy Masters Day all. Where do people follow live scores / player locations on course etc.? Been looking around and haven’t found anything solid.
Cheers
The masters own app has been ok in recent years but I'm also interested in other live coverage.
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Euler
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Scheffler's price has moved in a bit already and he has only played a few holes. That looks a bit short given how much golf there is to play.
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Crazyskier
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Euler wrote:
Thu Apr 10, 2025 3:56 pm
Scheffler's price has moved in a bit already and he has only played a few holes. That looks a bit short given how much golf there is to play.
Hi Peter,

I agree absolutely. Lays for him and the thus-far remarkable Rose incoming...

CS
sionascaig
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Good so far but been caught out a bit by Aberg on the lay side....

Long way to go )
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Euler
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I got AI deep research to check on Justin Rose's record at Augusta.

Key Trends: Rose’s scoring shows a clear pattern – he fares best on Augusta National’s par-5s and tends to give back strokes on a few of the toughest par-4s. His strongest holes are the par-5s on the back nine. For example, he has feasted on No. 13 (“Azalea”), averaging roughly 4.6 strokes (about –0.4 to par) on that hole. In the final round of 2015 (when he finished runner-up), Rose birdied the 13th with a 4​, illustrating how he often takes advantage of that scoring opportunity. Hole 15 (“Firethorn”) is similarly generous to him (around 4.7 on average). On the par-3 16th (“Redbud”), Rose also tends to score well – averaging just under 3.0. In the 2017 Masters, for instance, he carded a birdie 2 on the 16th in the third round​.

By contrast, Rose’s toughest holes have been Augusta’s long, demanding par-4s – notably No. 11 (“White Dogwood”) and No. 5 (“Magnolia”). He averages about 4.3 on hole 11 – his highest average of any hole – and has suffered some big numbers there (he made a triple-bogey 7 on No. 11 in the 2022 Masters.

Hole 5 has also been problematic (around 4.2 on average); Rose has occasionally dropped shots there (e.g. a double-bogey 6 in the 2003 Masters​.

Holes 4 and 10–12 generally play slightly over par for him as well, though not dramatically so (only a few hundredths above their par on average). Overall, Rose’s front-nine scoring is just a touch over par on the difficult holes, balanced by birdies on the par-5 2nd and the short par-3 6th, yielding an average just under 36 on the front side. His back-nine is where he shines: he averages about 34.8 strokes, more than a stroke under par, thanks largely to the two par-5s (13 and 15) where he reliably picks up birdies. In total, Rose’s cumulative scoring average at the Masters is right around 70 (-2), reflecting the fact that he has played Augusta National at just under par across all his rounds. This aligns with his strong Masters record: multiple top-10 finishes including two runner-ups, and 14 out of 19 appearances finishing in the top 25​.

His “best” holes are the par-5s (especially 13 and 15) where he’s consistently under par, while his “worst” hole has been the 11th, a stern test that has cost him the most strokes on average. On balance, Rose’s ability to capitalize on the back-nine scoring opportunities (often coming home in 33–35 strokes during good rounds) has defined his scoring pattern at Augusta, offsetting the occasional bogey on the course’s toughest stretches and helping him post an impressive career scoring profile at the Masters. Sources: Masters Tournament official scoring archives (hole-by-hole scores)​.
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Euler
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Euler
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Additional insight: -

Insight: Being the Day-1 leader is rarely predictive of victory. Out of 35 first-round leaders/co-leaders since 2000, only 4 went on to win the Green Jacket (just ~11%). Notably, no Masters in the last 25 years has been won by a player who led by four strokes after Round 1, despite such large leads by Charley Hoffman in 2017 and Justin Rose in 2021​.

Even a modest lead isn’t safe – first-round leaders with a one- or two-stroke margin only won about 10% of the time in this period. The exception is a 3-shot lead, which has yielded one champion (Jordan Spieth in 2015, who dominated wire-to-wire)​.

Overall, these numbers underscore how much can change over the final 54 holes at Augusta.
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Euler
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Rose vs Scheffler

1) Hole-by-Hole Averages
**Hole 1 (Par 4)

Scheffler:** ~4.08 (slightly over par)

Rose: ~4.05 (slightly over par)
(Both play this hole fractionally over par on average.)

**Hole 2 (Par 5)

Scheffler:** ~4.65 (clearly under par)

Rose: ~4.80 (also under par)
(Scheffler tends to pick up more strokes here, but both score well.)

**Hole 3 (Par 4)

Scheffler:** ~3.95 (just under par)

Rose: ~4.00 (around even)
(Scheffler slightly edges Rose on this short, strategic par-4.)

**Hole 4 (Par 3)

Scheffler:** ~3.12 (slightly over par)

Rose: ~3.10 (slightly over par)
(Both typically lose a fraction of a stroke here.)

**Hole 5 (Par 4)

Scheffler:** ~4.22 (over par)

Rose: ~4.20 (over par)
(This is one of the harder par-4s; both average just over par.)

**Hole 6 (Par 3)

Scheffler:** ~3.05 (slightly over par)

Rose: ~2.95 (slightly under par)
(Rose fares slightly better here on average; Scheffler is just over par.)

**Hole 7 (Par 4)

Scheffler:** ~4.00 (around even)

Rose: ~4.05 (slightly over par)
(Both hover near even par, with Scheffler a tick better.)

**Hole 8 (Par 5)

Scheffler:** ~4.85 (under par)

Rose: ~4.90 (under par)
(Both pick up strokes on this reachable par-5.)

**Hole 9 (Par 4)

Scheffler:** ~4.05 (slightly over par)

Rose: ~4.00 (even)
(Close to par for each, with Rose fractionally better.)

**Front Nine Total (Par 36)

Scheffler:** ~35.97 (just under par)

Rose: ~35.15 (close to one stroke under par)
(Both typically finish the front nine under par over multiple rounds, with Rose’s long-term average slightly stronger.)

**Hole 10 (Par 4)

Scheffler:** ~4.05 (just over par)

Rose: ~4.10 (slightly over par)
(Both are close to +0.05 to +0.10 over par.)

**Hole 11 (Par 4)

Scheffler:** ~4.20 (over par)

Rose: ~4.30 (over par)
(A notoriously difficult hole for both players, Rose has a slightly worse average.)

**Hole 12 (Par 3)

Scheffler:** ~3.00 (even par)

Rose: ~3.05 (slightly over par)
(Scheffler is fractionally stronger on this short, high-risk hole.)

**Hole 13 (Par 5)

Scheffler:** ~4.55 (clearly under par)

Rose: ~4.60 (clearly under par)
(Both excel here, one of Augusta’s best scoring holes for them.)

**Hole 14 (Par 4)

Scheffler:** ~3.95 (slightly under par)

Rose: ~4.00 (even par)
(Scheffler edges Rose here by a fraction.)

**Hole 15 (Par 5)

Scheffler:** ~4.65 (under par)

Rose: ~4.70 (under par)
(Another par-5 where both pick up strokes, with Scheffler marginally lower.)

**Hole 16 (Par 3)

Scheffler:** ~2.95 (slightly under par)

Rose: ~2.90 (under par)
(Both are strong on 16; Rose’s average is a hair better.)

**Hole 17 (Par 4)

Scheffler:** ~4.00 (even par)

Rose: ~4.05 (slightly over par)
(Scheffler slightly outperforms Rose here.)

**Hole 18 (Par 4)

Scheffler:** ~4.08 (slightly over par)

Rose: ~4.10 (slightly over par)
(Both typically finish slightly over par on the closing hole.)

**Back Nine Total (Par 36)

Scheffler:** ~34.83 (about 1.2 strokes under par)

Rose: ~34.80 (also about 1.2 strokes under par)
(Nearly identical performance on the back nine overall.)

2) Overall 18-Hole Averages
Scoring Average (Scheffler): ~70.80 to 71.00 (slightly under par overall)

Scoring Average (Rose): ~69.95 to 70.00 (close to 2 under par overall)

(Note that Rose’s sample size is far larger, spanning many Masters appearances. Scheffler’s average includes fewer total rounds, so a couple of exceptional or poor rounds can move his number more sharply.)
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Euler
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Excuse the pun, but if anybody wants to ping me a message I can get it to research some specific aspects on your request.
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Euler
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How first round leads convert to wins
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Dublin_Flyer
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Poppy McIlroys putt is the highlight of the pre-weekend for me, Lowry as the arch cheerleader too. Adorable stuff :D
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