Impressive

[Emtaxx]

After starting my bet angel automation journey in January, I find it really impressive with how tricky it is to actually create a profitable strategy lol.

I find it kind of fun though to be denied success, allows you to push further in all different directions + learning is super fun.

Just a thank you to all the chaps who chip in and make the frustration a bit easier for me

[ForFolksSake]

After starting my bet angel automation journey in January, I find it really impressive with how tricky it is to actually create a profitable strategy lol.

I find it kind of fun though to be denied success, allows you to push further in all different directions + learning is super fun.

Just a thank you to all the chaps who chip in and make the frustration a bit easier for me

[ShaunWhite]

After starting my bet angel automation journey in January, I find it really impressive with how tricky it is to actually create a profitable strategy lol.

It's difficult because, like most financially rewarding opportunities, effort and reward eventually reach a natural equalibrium. There's no low-hanging fruit but it's not impossible either. So if you're aiming for 50 grand a year, tax-free, expect it to demand the same level of effort as any other job with that kind of take home pay.

The real beauty of it though, is that it’s a proper meritocracy, you stand or fall on your own ability, not how many rounds of golf you’ve played with the boss.

The disconnect between the apparent ease vs actual difficulty can come from people seeing this as hobby or game rather than as an established industry populated by career professionals and businesses. Buying some software doesn't make you a contender anymore than buying a pencil makes you an architect or artist.

[Emtaxx]

Bosh love the analogies there with the pencil, I'm going to use that.

I'm just aiming for 50£ a day. But even making 10£ seems to be a hard task!

[wearthefoxhat]

Bosh love the analogies there with the pencil, I'm going to use that.

I'm just aiming for 50£ a day. But even making 10£ seems to be a hard task!

Warren Buffet:

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing" and.. "I don't look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over."

[ShaunWhite]

I'm just aiming for 50£ a day. But even making 10£ seems to be a hard task!

It's a tipping point thing, if you can consistantly make £10 (just 30p a race) you can probably make £100.

But it's always going to be difficult, the maximum yield a market can deliver after all the winners have been paid is pretty small(*) and there's a hell of a lot of people looking for a slice of it. If you want to make money, you're going to have to take it from someone else and if you've only been doing it a short time, then which profitable person are you going to take it from?

(*) tldr... In a Betfair market with 1% overround and £100,000 matched volume, the theoretical maximum total profit available to be shared among profitable position-closing traders is about £500

Full version...
Definitions:

Overround: If overround is 1%, the sum of all implied probabilities on the best back prices is 101%. This implies book value is 1.01, or the worst-case EV for blindly backing all outcomes is -1%.

Traded volume: £100,000. This is matched volume, i.e., total of all back and lay sides, so £50k backers and £50k layers.

Goal: Estimate the maximum possible profit across all position-closing traders, i.e., those who don't leave open exposure to the final result. These are “market makers,” scalpers, arbitrageurs, etc

Core Assumption:

For maximum yield, we assume all £100k is traded by people who enter and later exit positions. That is, no exposure is left open to the actual result, so no-one wins or loses based on the outcome — all profits/losses come from price differentials.

Step-by-step logic:

1. The market inefficiency (edge) comes from the overround:

A 1% overround means that if someone offered bets at those prices, they'd collect £1 in expected value per £100 risked.

However, the market doesn’t guarantee all this is captured. Most of it is fought over, and only some portion can be extracted as net profit by sharp traders.

2. Total theoretical EV across all matched bets:

Every matched bet involves one winner and one loser, but only the worse-priced side loses EV.

In a simple two-outcome case:

If one person backs at 2.00 (50%) and someone lays at 1.98 (50.51%), the backer has a worse deal.

The EV loss is the margin between their price and the fair price. This difference is what creates the "pie" of extractable yield.

The overround of 1% exists in every pair of matched bets, but it doesn’t mean 1% of £100k is extractable as profit — only the imbalance is.

3. Key insight:

Every matched bet pair has zero net P&L at maturity (excluding commission). But the pricing inefficiencies (due to overround) mean the expected value is skewed before maturity.

That skew creates maximum extractable profit (i.e., the "market pie") of about half the overround multiplied by the matched volume.

> Why half? Because on average, for each trade, one side overpays by 1%, and the other side benefits — but we only count the expected loss side as the extractable value, and not every trade is perfectly unbalanced. In a very efficient market, only the worst fills can be exploited.

Final Calculation:

Overround = 1%
Matched volume = £100,000

Theoretical max available EV = approx 0.5% of £100,000

So, max yield across all profitable closing traders = £500

This is the total pie — the best that could ever be carved up among winning traders who enter and exit positions (i.e., don’t leave open bets).

Important caveats:

This excludes commission — so actual net profit would be lower, depending on account discount rate.

This assumes all trading volume was intelligently placed to capture edge. In reality, much of it cancels out (e.g., two 0EV traders trading with each other).

This also assumes perfect fills on mispriced sides. In real markets, adverse selection, latency, and spread wideness will lower this.

Summary:

> In a Betfair market with 1% overround and £100,000 matched volume, the theoretical maximum total profit available to be shared among profitable position-closing traders is about £500.

That’s the size of the pie — and it shows why being early, fast, and right matters so much when the edge is that thin.

[ShaunWhite]

....... and there's no easy round 1 games for amateur players, every market is a World Cup final with all the big players on the pitch. It's going to take a while before you're not just kicked to pieces.

[ruthlessimon]

even making 10£ seems to be a hard task!

I think the govt pays more than that & you don't even need to get out of bed. Actually I think you get wayy more if you don't get out of bed.

[ShaunWhite]

I think the govt pays more than that & you don't even need to get out of bed. Actually I think you get wayy more if you don't get out of bed.

I don't know where the myth comes from that being on benefits is the life of Riley, for a single adult aged 25 or over, the standard allowance is £400.14 per month. I guarantee that nobody who moans about it has had to live on it.

[ruthlessimon]

I think the govt pays more than that & you don't even need to get out of bed. Actually I think you get wayy more if you don't get out of bed.

I don't know where the myth comes from that being on benefits is the life of Riley, for a single adult aged 25 or over, the standard allowance is £400.14 per month. I guarantee that nobody who moans about it has had to live on it.

Fair

Although that said.. My bro works part time at a local shop, really weird hours, pushing trolleys, expected to be punctual, well groomed, courteous etc, deal petty managers/customers & I think he makes £700 a month. Even if he went full time he wouldn't be able to move out, & some of his colleagues have degrees..

I keep telling him to quit, get someone pregnant (stop at 2), learn about adhd, claim benefits - arb/trade/hustle - funnel the earnings into gold jewellery, repeat ad infinitum. The pirate lifestyle & if it goes tits, his majesty will almost certainly offer a stay at one of his many residences (all expenses paid). What's not to like

[ShaunWhite]

Although that said.. My bro works part time at a local shop, really weird hours, pushing trolleys, expected to be punctual, well groomed, courteous etc, deal petty managers/customers & I think he makes £700 a month. Even if he went full time he wouldn't be able to move out, & some of his colleagues have degrees..

Starter jobs have never been paid well, my first full-time job in 1981 paid £35 a week gross, a net of £695/month in todays money (thx gpt).
£700 part-time? I know it's not quite equivalent because of the cost of housing, but it's never been easy.

[Dublin_Flyer]

Starter jobs have never been paid well, my first full-time job in 1981 paid £35 a week gross, a net of £695/month in todays money (thx gpt).
£700 part-time? I know it's not quite equivalent because of the cost of housing, but it's never been easy.

I was trying to reply to part of what you said but you edited it as I was replying, thought I was losing my mind for a minute there

[wearthefoxhat]

I think the govt pays more than that & you don't even need to get out of bed. Actually I think you get wayy more if you don't get out of bed.

I don't know where the myth comes from that being on benefits is the life of Riley, for a single adult aged 25 or over, the standard allowance is £400.14 per month. I guarantee that nobody who moans about it has had to live on it.

I keep telling him to quit, get someone pregnant (stop at 2), learn about adhd, claim benefits - arb/trade/hustle - funnel the earnings into gold jewellery, repeat ad infinitum. #

If you can claim PIP and ESA, along with Universal Credit, at the enhanced end, you could clear £1500 before your rent is paid. (add the rent onto the £1500, dependant on where you live and your family circumstances..etc)

Of course it's being looked at by the govt and they are tweaking the rules, but it will only increase as, no doubt, there will be ways around it.

[Alpha322]

Bosh love the analogies there with the pencil, I'm going to use that.

I'm just aiming for 50£ a day. But even making 10£ seems to be a hard task!

If you are Trading Order flow Open Position close and Hedge, dont set targets, set strategies how you approach that type of market and stick to them win or lose. I trade a 2/1 unhedged (Green Up) or Red out. you will find by the end of the month doing this you will be in overall profit, if your strike rate and Edge is good its a winner honest.

Also in play i Trade the horse first as in above and let a Servant lay the field.

Another better way to do it is do 20 markets a day and say my average winning Trades must be £2.50 or above, but use stakes to give enough stop loss room of £2.50. This is a game of win lose but you must have a edge to make you profitable in the long run not per day

Also dont do reckless things like bet your bank in play because of a losing streak, (Revenge Trading) The Gambling Devil takes over, i got past that years ago. Before you Trade make sure you are financially stable and if you are a newbie and really rely on this to pay bills wrong move see this as extra income to enhance a guaranteed income, myself i have a very good income but my hours of work gives me a lot of time to Trade, i even rock up at Hotel Foyers with my Laptop for a couple of hours before i go to work. Opposite shift i use my office at home similar to Peters set up , it takes time to develop guys dont put that pressure on yourselves with targets

[wearthefoxhat]

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