2025 Epsom Derby – Runner Profiles & Analysis
Al Wasl Storm
Trainer: Owen Burrows Jockey: David Probert Owner: Ahmed Al Shaikh Draw: 13
Going preference: Unknown (little evidence of any bias).
Al Wasl Storm is one of two bargain purchases running for owner-breeder Ahmed Al Shaikh, whose eye for a long-priced Derby placer is well known. Unraced at two, he landed only a minor maiden at Chester this spring and his overall form is modest. Lacking a pattern-race prep and yet to race beyond ten furlongs, he looks badly outclassed and would be an enormous shock even to make the frame.
Chance of winning: 1/10 – rank outsider.
Fair odds: 150–200/1.
Damysus
Trainers: John & Thady Gosden Jockey: James Doyle Owner: Wathnan Racing Draw: 15
Going preference: Unproven, but acts on Tapeta and good turf.
A lightly-raced colt who didn’t debut until December, Damysus was a staying-on second in the Group 2 Dante and shapes as though the extra two furlongs will suit. Raw and open to plenty of improvement, he ticks the “Dante trial” box but arrives without a win this season.
Chance of winning: 6/10 – improver who could outrun his odds.
Fair odds: 12/1.
Delacroix
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Jockey: Ryan Moore Owner: Coolmore Partners Draw: 14
Going preference: Likely effective on good or quicker.
Unbeaten in two starts at three and the clear Ballydoyle number-one, Delacroix dominated both the Ballysax and Derrinstown trials. Battle-hardened and bred to stay, he sets the standard.
Chance of winning: 8/10 – the one to beat.
Fair odds: 3/1.
Green Storm
Trainer: Charlie Johnston Jockey: Billy Loughnane Owner: Ahmed Al Shaikh Draw: 8
Going preference: Handles soft.
Second in last year’s Group 1 Critérium de Saint-Cloud but quiet this spring. Faces a huge class jump and provides apprentice Billy Loughnane with a memorable first Derby ride.
Chance of winning: 2/10 – would be a shock winner.
Fair odds: 100/1.
Lambourn
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Jockey: Wayne Lordan Owner: Coolmore Partners Draw: 10
Going preference: Enjoys cut in the ground.
A convincing Chester Vase winner whose stamina is assured. Lacks tactical speed but will finish strongly, especially if the forecast rain arrives.
Chance of winning: 5/10 – lively outsider for a place.
Fair odds: 25/1.
Lazy Griff
Trainer: Charlie Johnston Jockey: Christophe Soumillon Owner: Middleham Park Racing & G. Griffiths Draw: 3
Going preference: Any rain a plus.
Second in the Chester Vase and still a maiden above novice level, but improvements keep coming. Star jockey booking catches the eye.
Chance of winning: 4/10 – could surprise in an open year.
Fair odds: 33/1.
Midak
Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard Jockey: Mickaël Barzalona Owner: Aga Khan Draw: 4
Going preference: Proven on good-to-soft.
Unbeaten French raider who scored impressively in the Prix Greffulhe. Supplemented at a cost of £75,000 and carries plenty of mystique.
Chance of winning: 7/10 – the unknown quantity.
Fair odds: 8/1.
New Ground
Trainer: Henri-François Devin Jockey: Alexis Pouchin Owner: Juddmonte Draw: 17
Going preference: Handles good ground.
Supplemented after two close thirds in French stakes races. Yet to win this season and drawn wide; needs a big leap forward.
Chance of winning: 3/10 – dark-horse appeal only.
Fair odds: 33/1.
Nightime Dancer
Trainer: Richard Hannon Jockey: Jamie Spencer Owner: Mohammed Jaber Draw: 9
Going preference: Stout pedigree suggests soft ground fine.
Stamina-laden colt who was well held in the Lingfield Trial. Shapes like a future St Leger type rather than a Derby winner.
Chance of winning: 1/10 – outclassed.
Fair odds: 66/1.
Nightwalker
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Jockey: Tom Marquand Owner: Juddmonte Draw: 5
Going preference: No obvious bias.
Blew the start yet finished well in the Dante. Extra two furlongs can help; each-way longshot with a late kick.
Chance of winning: 4/10 – could sneak into the frame.
Fair odds: 33/1.
Pride Of Arras
Trainer: Ralph Beckett Jockey: Rossa Ryan Owners: David & Vimy Aykroyd Draw: 16
Going preference: Best on good or quicker.
Unbeaten Dante winner whose turn of foot lit up York. Lightly raced, progressive and the feel-good story of the year; stall 16 hoodoo to overcome.
Chance of winning: 9/10 – leading player.
Fair odds: 4/1.
Rogue Impact
Trainer: James Owen Jockey: Luke Morris Owner: Rogue Racing Syndicate Draw: 1
Going preference: Versatile.
Maiden winner who trailed home last in the Lingfield Trial. Inside draw could be awkward if he lacks early speed.
Chance of winning: 1/10 – virtually no chance.
Fair odds: 150/1.
Ruling Court
Trainer: Charlie Appleby Jockey: William Buick Owner: Godolphin Draw: 7
Going preference: Proven on good-to-firm.
Impressive 2000 Guineas winner and the class act on ratings. Stamina is the only question; if he stays, he wins.
Chance of winning: 8/10 – high-class colt with one doubt.
Fair odds: 4/1.
Sea Scout
Trainers: Simon & Ed Crisford Jockey: Harry Davies Owner: KHK Racing Draw: 18
Going preference: Probably best on good.
Only previous course winner (Blue Riband Trial) but that race rarely produces Derby heroes. Faces a big rise in grade.
Chance of winning: 2/10 – course form alone unlikely to suffice.
Fair odds: 50/1.
Stanhope Gardens
Trainer: Ralph Beckett Jockey: Hector Crouch Owners: Marc Chan & Andrew Rosen Draw: 2
Going preference: Fine on good or faster.
Lightly-raced second string who pushed Delacroix close at two and won an ad-hoc Salisbury prep. Stall 2 yet to produce a Derby winner.
Chance of winning: 6/10 – dark horse with credible form.
Fair odds: 25/1.
Tennessee Stud
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle Owners: Westerberg & Coolmore Draw: 12
Going preference: Acts on soft.
Group 1-winning juvenile but only third to Delacroix in his trial and needs marked improvement. Family rivalry angle adds spice.
Chance of winning: 4/10 – place hopes rather than win claims.
Fair odds: 25/1.
The Lion In Winter
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Jockey: Colin Keane Owner: Coolmore Partners Draw: 19
Going preference: Versatile; settling the bigger issue.
Winter favourite whose poor Dante run saw Ryan Moore desert him. Mercurial talent drawn widest; could roar back or flop again.
Chance of winning: 6/10 – risky but capable.
Fair odds: 12/1.
Tornado Alert
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor Jockey: Oisin Murphy Owner: Godolphin Draw: 11
Going preference: Probably better on firmish ground.
Front-running fourth in the Guineas but doubtful stayer at 12 furlongs. Could act as pacemaker for Ruling Court.
Chance of winning: 4/10 – big talent at the wrong trip.
Fair odds: 25/1.
Tuscan Hills
Trainer: Rafael Freire Jockey: David Egan Owner: Amo Racing Draw: 6
Going preference: Likely needs good ground.
Seventh in the Dante and appeared to struggle even at ten furlongs. Amo Racing’s history of giant-killing seconds aside, he looks out of his depth.
Chance of winning: 1/10 – outclassed.
Fair odds: 100/1.
Key Trends & Final Thoughts
• The Dante remains the most potent trial – Pride Of Arras, Delacroix and Damysus all emerged from it.
• Guineas winners have the class edge but often fail to stay; Ruling Court must buck that trend.
• Stalls 10 (Lambourn) and 7 (Ruling Court) are historically lucky; stalls 2 and 16 still seek a first winner.
• French challenger Midak brings an unknown level of ability, echoing Pour Moi’s successful raid.
• The Derby frequently produces surprises; keep an eye on improving types such as Damysus and Nightwalker for each-way value.
Ultimately, Delacroix, Pride Of Arras and Ruling Court set the benchmark, but the wide-open nature of this field means a late-charging outsider would not be unprecedented at Epsom Downs.
Epsom Derby - AI Preview
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sionascaig
- Posts: 1632
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
Does the AI tell you how it calculated "Fair Odds"?
You instruct it on how it should do that. So this is based on every chance added up to 100% and then converted by its individual chance.
The question.
Will Ruling Court Get the Trip?
Ruling Court is a son of Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown winner, and his dam, Inchargeofme, is by High Chaparral, a noted stamina influence. This pedigree suggests a strong potential to handle the Derby's 12-furlong distance. His debut at Sandown in July 2024 was impressive, winning by five and a half lengths, and he followed up with a victory in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket in May 2025 . These performances indicate that Ruling Court has the class and ability to stay the trip.
timeform.com
+2
betting.betfair.com
+2
timeform.com
+2
racing365.com
+1
sportinglife.com
+1
theguardian.com
+5
racingpost.com
+5
sportinglife.com
+5
However, the prevailing weather conditions could impact his chances. If the ground becomes too soft, it may affect his performance, and connections are closely monitoring the situation.
In summary, while Ruling Court has the pedigree and recent form to suggest he can handle the Derby's distance, his participation today hinges on the track conditions. If the ground remains firm enough, he is a strong contender; otherwise, he may be withdrawn.
theguardian.com
+1
thescottishsun.co.uk
+1
Will Ruling Court Get the Trip?
Ruling Court is a son of Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown winner, and his dam, Inchargeofme, is by High Chaparral, a noted stamina influence. This pedigree suggests a strong potential to handle the Derby's 12-furlong distance. His debut at Sandown in July 2024 was impressive, winning by five and a half lengths, and he followed up with a victory in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket in May 2025 . These performances indicate that Ruling Court has the class and ability to stay the trip.
timeform.com
+2
betting.betfair.com
+2
timeform.com
+2
racing365.com
+1
sportinglife.com
+1
theguardian.com
+5
racingpost.com
+5
sportinglife.com
+5
However, the prevailing weather conditions could impact his chances. If the ground becomes too soft, it may affect his performance, and connections are closely monitoring the situation.
In summary, while Ruling Court has the pedigree and recent form to suggest he can handle the Derby's distance, his participation today hinges on the track conditions. If the ground remains firm enough, he is a strong contender; otherwise, he may be withdrawn.
theguardian.com
+1
thescottishsun.co.uk
+1
Will Delacroix drift in the betting?
As of the latest updates, Delacroix has become the 5/2 favorite for the 2025 Epsom Derby, following a strong performance in the Oaks. This shift in odds indicates a shortening rather than a drift in his betting position. His pedigree, being by Dubawi out of the Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Tepin, suggests he has the class and stamina to handle the Derby's 12-furlong distance.
thesun.co.uk
thoroughbredracing.com
However, the prevailing weather conditions at Epsom Downs could influence the race outcome. With forecasts predicting up to 10mm of rain, the track conditions are expected to change, potentially affecting the performance of all runners. Delacroix's ability to handle soft ground remains a subject of discussion among racing analysts.
theguardian.com
In summary, Delacroix's odds have shortened to 5/2, making him the current favorite for the Derby. While his form and pedigree support his position, the evolving track conditions could impact his performance, and bettors should consider these factors when placing wagers.
As of the latest updates, Delacroix has become the 5/2 favorite for the 2025 Epsom Derby, following a strong performance in the Oaks. This shift in odds indicates a shortening rather than a drift in his betting position. His pedigree, being by Dubawi out of the Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Tepin, suggests he has the class and stamina to handle the Derby's 12-furlong distance.
thesun.co.uk
thoroughbredracing.com
However, the prevailing weather conditions at Epsom Downs could influence the race outcome. With forecasts predicting up to 10mm of rain, the track conditions are expected to change, potentially affecting the performance of all runners. Delacroix's ability to handle soft ground remains a subject of discussion among racing analysts.
theguardian.com
In summary, Delacroix's odds have shortened to 5/2, making him the current favorite for the Derby. While his form and pedigree support his position, the evolving track conditions could impact his performance, and bettors should consider these factors when placing wagers.
From betfair.
Delacroix
Form: 1212-11
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
Age: 3 Weight: 9-2 Official Rating: n/a
Pedigree: b c Dubawi (IRE) | Tepin (USA)
Runner Comments:
By Dubawi, who has a poor record with his runners in this, but otherwise he has a very likeable profile and powered away at the finish when landing the odds in the Leopardstown Trial 4 weeks ago. Well-balanced sort who should stay and take to the track, and the pick of Ryan Moore. Huge player.
Delacroix
Form: 1212-11
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
Age: 3 Weight: 9-2 Official Rating: n/a
Pedigree: b c Dubawi (IRE) | Tepin (USA)
Runner Comments:
By Dubawi, who has a poor record with his runners in this, but otherwise he has a very likeable profile and powered away at the finish when landing the odds in the Leopardstown Trial 4 weeks ago. Well-balanced sort who should stay and take to the track, and the pick of Ryan Moore. Huge player.
I tried using racing post on a few races not predicted the winner yet using chat gpt will do my own thing later
Top Contenders by Ratings
Horse RPR OR TS Comments
Ruling Court 134 121 108 Best overall figures; Buick + Appleby
Delacroix 129 116 116 Strong form & Ryan Moore
The Lion In Winter 128 117 113 High consistency, big raw ability
Pride Of Arras 126 115 109 Still unbeaten (1-1), top progressive type
Damysus 123 111 107 Good profile, from the Gosdens
Tornado Alert 124 112 82 Strong RPR, but questionable speed (TS)
Best Recent Form:
Ruling Court: 13-11, trained by Appleby, ridden by Buick. Consistent and improving.
Delacroix: 212-11, Ryan Moore up — peaking at the right time.
Pride Of Arras: Perfect record, lightly raced and progressing.
Most Likely Winner: Ruling Court
Tops the RPR (134) and OR (121) charts — clear statistical leader.
Trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick, one of the most potent flat combos.
Unbeaten this year, with progressive form.
Secondary Picks:
Delacroix – big engine (TS 116), Group-class pedigree.
The Lion In Winter – just slightly behind on figures, but rock-solid consistency.
Pride Of Arras – still unbeaten, unknown ceiling, great profile.
Watchlist:
Tennessee Stud & Stanhope Gardens: both have improving ratings and decent recent form—could place or run close if pace collapses.
Final Verdict:
Ruling Court stands out as the most likely winner based on peak performance, ratings, and elite connections.
Top Contenders by RatingsHorse RPR OR TS Comments
Ruling Court 134 121 108 Best overall figures; Buick + Appleby
Delacroix 129 116 116 Strong form & Ryan Moore
The Lion In Winter 128 117 113 High consistency, big raw ability
Pride Of Arras 126 115 109 Still unbeaten (1-1), top progressive type
Damysus 123 111 107 Good profile, from the Gosdens
Tornado Alert 124 112 82 Strong RPR, but questionable speed (TS)
Best Recent Form:Ruling Court: 13-11, trained by Appleby, ridden by Buick. Consistent and improving.
Delacroix: 212-11, Ryan Moore up — peaking at the right time.
Pride Of Arras: Perfect record, lightly raced and progressing.
Most Likely Winner: Ruling CourtTops the RPR (134) and OR (121) charts — clear statistical leader.
Trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick, one of the most potent flat combos.
Unbeaten this year, with progressive form.
Secondary Picks:Delacroix – big engine (TS 116), Group-class pedigree.
The Lion In Winter – just slightly behind on figures, but rock-solid consistency.
Pride Of Arras – still unbeaten, unknown ceiling, great profile.
Watchlist:Tennessee Stud & Stanhope Gardens: both have improving ratings and decent recent form—could place or run close if pace collapses.
Final Verdict:Ruling Court stands out as the most likely winner based on peak performance, ratings, and elite connections.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10487
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
You can tell that by the strangely round bookie numbers on all the 'fair odds'. It's trawled the tabloids rather than doing any actual analysis. Hence the 12/1 or 33/1 rather than
9/1 or 35/1 etc. 2 decimal places would be equally ridiculous but these are pointless.
Quite handy though if you're a tabloid editor, you can fire your racing pages contributors with their lifelong experience and families to feed, and just use a free app.
