Why does the volume traded per minute on horse races rise as you approach the start of a race?
Perhaps bettors may want to wait before placing their bets in case there is any late news. I also wonder whether it's because bookies are placing bets and lays to reduce their liabilities.
But if these are the reasons, it would suggest that the majority of trades aren't between traders.
What do you guys think?
Jeff
Increasing volume
Also, you have to exit if you are postion taking, so your final exit point is zero or approaching it. It is likely that volume increases because of this.
If you look at my activity, I have to have very liquid markets, so there is a multiplier effect in place as more people join because of improving liquidity and more exit points are established.
If you look at my activity, I have to have very liquid markets, so there is a multiplier effect in place as more people join because of improving liquidity and more exit points are established.
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mister man
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:10 pm
its the bots, trade b4 the off 5m, 4m, etc etc 3m,2m,1m etc and close at X
Not only the volume increases as you go closer to race but the rate of increase increases (if that makes sense)and I think its slightly more to it than a single reason.
The way I picture it as reeal punters make their mind up after watching the way horse look and behave in the parade ring (about 4-5 min before) and start taking their positions. This then changes the way actual bookmakers', real bookmakers both professinal and high street, (as oppose to traders) books take shape. Those bookmakers ending up with skewed books then look at other avenues to balance the books and one of the avenue is betfair.
So they start taking a part at about 1-3 minutes before the race. Off course bookmakers' contribution to the volume is a bit more than punters. This then starts altering traders positions who then try to close their side within 0-60 seconds prior to race.
Add to this bots aimed to triggers 5, 10, 60 seconds etc prior to race also start firing so you have a frenzy of acitivities within 60 seconds of the start.
Then you have a lull period between the schedule time and the race going in-play, if the race is delayed by a minute or two as most people have taken position (willing or otherwise). Once it goes in-play then SIS boys take over and a different cycle begins.
This is what I'm making out. I'm sure there are so many holes to my conjecture but would love to hear alternative factors.
The way I picture it as reeal punters make their mind up after watching the way horse look and behave in the parade ring (about 4-5 min before) and start taking their positions. This then changes the way actual bookmakers', real bookmakers both professinal and high street, (as oppose to traders) books take shape. Those bookmakers ending up with skewed books then look at other avenues to balance the books and one of the avenue is betfair.
So they start taking a part at about 1-3 minutes before the race. Off course bookmakers' contribution to the volume is a bit more than punters. This then starts altering traders positions who then try to close their side within 0-60 seconds prior to race.
Add to this bots aimed to triggers 5, 10, 60 seconds etc prior to race also start firing so you have a frenzy of acitivities within 60 seconds of the start.
Then you have a lull period between the schedule time and the race going in-play, if the race is delayed by a minute or two as most people have taken position (willing or otherwise). Once it goes in-play then SIS boys take over and a different cycle begins.
This is what I'm making out. I'm sure there are so many holes to my conjecture but would love to hear alternative factors.